Thursday, October 23, 2014

Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast Oct 23 2014

Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 23/0950Z from Region 2192 (S14W06). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 503 km/s at 22/2349Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1717Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6898 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (24 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one through three (24-26 Oct). III. Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct Class M 85/85/85 Class X 45/45/45 Proton 35/40/45 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Oct 227 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 230/230/230 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 138 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 012/015-009/010-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 45/30/25

Oct 23 2014, Current Solar Flare Activity, current solar flares, solar wind activity, Latest Solar Flare Activity, solar flare activity, solar activity 2014, 2014, oct 2014

Good morning. Here is an updated look at the visible solar disk, along with active region (AR) 2192 on Thursday. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was high. AR 2192 was responsible for a strong X1.6 solar flare on Wednesday peaking at 14:28 UTC. Unfortunately for sky watchers, the latest event again failed to produce a coronal mass ejection (CME). The active region also produced a few M-Flares, including an M1.1 at 09:50 UTC Thursday morning. AR 2192 expanded to a size of 2700 millionths which puts it on par, at least in terms of total area coverage with legendary Cycle 23 sunspot 486 from October 2003. AR 2192 is now in a near perfect geoeffective position for Earth directed eruptions. The cluster still maintains a complex Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and could produce additional moderate to strong solar flares. Elsewhere, a region located near the southeast limb produced an M1.4 flare at 15:57 UTC Wednesday, along with a handful of C-Flares. All other visible regions are currently stable.

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Solar flare storm activity Forecast Oct 18 - Oct 20 2014

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to a long-duration M1/Sf
flare from Region 2192 (S15E63, Eki/beta-gamma) at 18/0758 UTC.  Region
2192 also produced a multiple mid-level C-class flares throughout the
period and appeared to be increasing in both size and magnetic
complexity as it continues to rotate into full view.  The other regions
on the visible disk were stable.  A filament eruption (approx 8 degree
extent) centered near N15W10 was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery between
18/0740-0938 UTC.  No coronagraph imagery was available at the time of
this writing to determine if a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated
with either the M-flare or the filament eruption occurred.
      
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (18-20 Oct)
with Region 2192 being the likely source.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (18-20 Oct).  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the
next three days (18-20 Oct).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of a nominal solar wind
regime.  Solar wind speeds were steady in the 400-500 km/s range.  IMF
total field values reached 8 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward
component of -7 nT.  The phi angle was variable between negative
(toward) and positive (away) solar sectors throughout the period,
suggesting multiple solar sector boundary crossings (SSBCs).

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels over the
next three days (18-20 Oct) with continued transitions between negative
and positive solar sectors.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated
period of active conditions between 18/0000-0300 UTC due to solar sector
variability.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
the remainder of day one (18 Oct) through day three (20 Oct).

Solar flare storm activity Forecast Oct 18 2014