Monday, February 24, 2014

X4.9 Solar Flare 02/24/2014 - possibility of a coronal mass ejection CME

The X4.9 Solar Flare was associated with a Type II radio emission with a velocity of nearly 2000 km/s. This indicates the possibility of a coronal mass ejection. A 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 3700 sfu and lasting 85 minutes was also recorded. Despite newly renumbered region 1990 being close to the limb, it is still possible to be flanked by a CME from this location if it happens to be large enough. More updates to follow if a CME is associated. Attached video by SDO.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1972 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0042 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
End Time: 2014 Feb 25 0107 UTC
Duration: 85 minutes
Peak Flux: 3700 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 171 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Solar Active Regions and Activity feb 23 2014

Activity again reached moderate levels due to a low level M-Flare (M1.2) at 11:17 UTC Monday morning. Most flare activity, including the M1.2 flare, is being centered around former region 1967 which is now returning into view off the east limb. A dark core belonging to the long lasting active region is now visible in the latest imagery. It appears that 1967 is in an advanced state of decay and may no longer be a large threat for strong X-Class solar flares. We will have a better look at the entire region within the next 24 hours. Elsewhere, sunspot duo 1981-1982 remains stable as it transits the center of the visible disk. All other regions, including region 1987, remain quiet. There will continue to be a chance for an isolated M-Class event with regions 1981-1982 and returning region 1967 being the likely source. 

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/1205Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
589 km/s at 24/0550Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2224Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 23/2101Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (25 Feb, 27
Feb) and quiet levels on day two (26 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 171
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 175/180/180
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  009/008-006/005-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    20/05/25