Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast march 2015

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. There were several C-class/Sf
flares observed, many of which originated from an unnumbered region on
the southeast limb and most from Region 2305. Region 2305 (S08E19,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to grow in area, maintained an increased
magnetic complexity, and produced the largest flare of the period, a
C8/1n flare at 25/0446 UTC. No Earth directed CMEs were observed with
available imagery and observation data.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for an
M-class (R1-Minor) flare for the forecast period (26-28 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was once
again at high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit returned to near background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to remain at high levels through day three (26-28 Mar). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near
background conditions for days one through three (26-28 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft reflected the continued
influence of a positive polarity high speed solar wind stream.  Wind
speed hovered between 580 and 500 km/s. Bt was at or below 7 nT while
Bz remained at or above -5 nT.  Phi was mostly positive.

.Forecast...
The high speed wind stream is expected to gradually decrease through
days one and two (26-27 Mar). A solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) to
a negative Phi orientation is forecast late on day two. A recurrent
negative polarity solar wind structure is expected to become
geoeffective, with velocities near 700 km/s expected for day three (28
Mar).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels in response to
the continued influence of the positive polarity high speed solar wind
stream.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to unsettled
levels through day one (26 Mar).  Unsettled to active conditions are
expected on day two (27 Mar) with the SSBC. Day three (28 Mar) is
forecast to see activity as high as a minor storm due to the onset of
the recurrent negative polarity high speed stream.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast Oct 23 2014

Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 23/0950Z from Region 2192 (S14W06). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 503 km/s at 22/2349Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1717Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6898 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (24 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one through three (24-26 Oct). III. Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct Class M 85/85/85 Class X 45/45/45 Proton 35/40/45 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Oct 227 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 230/230/230 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 138 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 012/015-009/010-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 45/30/25

Oct 23 2014, Current Solar Flare Activity, current solar flares, solar wind activity, Latest Solar Flare Activity, solar flare activity, solar activity 2014, 2014, oct 2014

Good morning. Here is an updated look at the visible solar disk, along with active region (AR) 2192 on Thursday. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was high. AR 2192 was responsible for a strong X1.6 solar flare on Wednesday peaking at 14:28 UTC. Unfortunately for sky watchers, the latest event again failed to produce a coronal mass ejection (CME). The active region also produced a few M-Flares, including an M1.1 at 09:50 UTC Thursday morning. AR 2192 expanded to a size of 2700 millionths which puts it on par, at least in terms of total area coverage with legendary Cycle 23 sunspot 486 from October 2003. AR 2192 is now in a near perfect geoeffective position for Earth directed eruptions. The cluster still maintains a complex Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and could produce additional moderate to strong solar flares. Elsewhere, a region located near the southeast limb produced an M1.4 flare at 15:57 UTC Wednesday, along with a handful of C-Flares. All other visible regions are currently stable.