Sunday, June 21, 2015

latest solar flare activity - Strong G3 Geomagnetic Storm June 22 2015


The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a Strong G3 Geomagnetic Storm watch beginning tomorrow (June 22). The expected storm is the result of a full halo CME observed early Sunday morning. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert for visual aurora during the next several days.



Solar activity during the past 24 hours was moderate. Region 2367 was responsible for the strongest X-Ray event of the period, an impulsive M3.8 flare peaking at 09:44 UTC. A noteworthy CME from this event is unlikely. The most interesting event of the past 24 hours was a dual M-Flare event around region 2371 during the early hours of June 21. An M2.0 flare was quickly followed up by an M2.6 event at 02:34 UTC.



 A full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) became visible soon after in coronagraph imagery and appears to be Earth directed. An impact to our geomagnetic field will be possible during the next 48-72 hours and could lead to geomagnetic storming at high latitudes. Additional isolated M-Flares will be possible around both regions 2367 and 2371 during the next day. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.


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Tuesday, May 12, 2015

latest solar flare activity 2015 and Survival kits

Solar activity remained at low levels. A C2 flare from west of
Region 2335 (S14W85, Bxo/beta) at 12/0302 UTC was accompanied by an
eruption visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 12/0248
UTC, and associated with a proton enhancement observed shortly after. 
Region 2339 (N14W19, Fkc/beta-gamma) remained the largest of the 10
spotted regions on the visible disk. There was no significant
development of any of the regions.

The location of the CME described above makes a geoeffective event
unlikely. Analysis and modeling of the CME support the west limb event
heading upstream of Earth with no significant impacts expected.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (13-15
May) with Region 2339 being the most likely source.

Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began at background levels but rose after the C2 flare at 12/0302 UTC mentioned above. Flux at GOES reached a peak of 6 pfu at 12/0720. Upstream at the ACE spacecraft, a maximum of 8 pfu was recorded by the SIS instrument at 12/0855 UTC. The uptick in proton flux prompted a warning at 12/0627 UTC which was later canceled. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to persist at normal levels over the next three days (13-15 May). The 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) thresholds while decreasing back to background levels as the period progresses. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft saw signatures suggesting the onset of the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) during the period. Wind speeds remained low through the majority of the day between around 340 km/s to around 370 km/s. After 12/1700 UTC the winds began a steady rise in velocity to above 500 km/s, eventually seeing a a peak of 605 km/s. Bt was enhanced above 5 nT through most of the day, reaching a peak of 17 nT, while Bz saw a maximum southward deflection of -16 nT near the end of the period. Temperature has also seen a positive trend after 12/0400 UTC and continues to increase. .Forecast... The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft is expected to continue to see enhancements from the CH HSS over the next three days. Wind speeds are expected to continue to increase until early on day one (13 May) and slowly decline through day three (15 May).
Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with minor (G1-Minor) storming conditions likely on day one (13 May) with the onset of a CH HSS. On day two through three (14 - 15 May), the high speed stream is expected to taper off, bringing geomagnetic conditions below minor (G1-Minor) thresholds.

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/1151Z from Region 2339 (N14W19). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May,
15 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
455 km/s at 12/1850Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 12/0649Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 12/1459Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at
12/0730Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (14 May) and quiet levels on day three (15
May).

III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 163
Predicted   13 May-15 May 160/155/150
90 Day Mean        12 May 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  019/025-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/20
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/45/25