Tuesday, May 12, 2015

latest solar flare activity 2015 and Survival kits

Solar activity remained at low levels. A C2 flare from west of
Region 2335 (S14W85, Bxo/beta) at 12/0302 UTC was accompanied by an
eruption visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 12/0248
UTC, and associated with a proton enhancement observed shortly after. 
Region 2339 (N14W19, Fkc/beta-gamma) remained the largest of the 10
spotted regions on the visible disk. There was no significant
development of any of the regions.

The location of the CME described above makes a geoeffective event
unlikely. Analysis and modeling of the CME support the west limb event
heading upstream of Earth with no significant impacts expected.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (13-15
May) with Region 2339 being the most likely source.

Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began at background levels but rose after the C2 flare at 12/0302 UTC mentioned above. Flux at GOES reached a peak of 6 pfu at 12/0720. Upstream at the ACE spacecraft, a maximum of 8 pfu was recorded by the SIS instrument at 12/0855 UTC. The uptick in proton flux prompted a warning at 12/0627 UTC which was later canceled. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to persist at normal levels over the next three days (13-15 May). The 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) thresholds while decreasing back to background levels as the period progresses. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft saw signatures suggesting the onset of the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) during the period. Wind speeds remained low through the majority of the day between around 340 km/s to around 370 km/s. After 12/1700 UTC the winds began a steady rise in velocity to above 500 km/s, eventually seeing a a peak of 605 km/s. Bt was enhanced above 5 nT through most of the day, reaching a peak of 17 nT, while Bz saw a maximum southward deflection of -16 nT near the end of the period. Temperature has also seen a positive trend after 12/0400 UTC and continues to increase. .Forecast... The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft is expected to continue to see enhancements from the CH HSS over the next three days. Wind speeds are expected to continue to increase until early on day one (13 May) and slowly decline through day three (15 May).
Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with minor (G1-Minor) storming conditions likely on day one (13 May) with the onset of a CH HSS. On day two through three (14 - 15 May), the high speed stream is expected to taper off, bringing geomagnetic conditions below minor (G1-Minor) thresholds.

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/1151Z from Region 2339 (N14W19). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May,
15 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
455 km/s at 12/1850Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 12/0649Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 12/1459Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at
12/0730Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (14 May) and quiet levels on day three (15
May).

III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 163
Predicted   13 May-15 May 160/155/150
90 Day Mean        12 May 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  019/025-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/20
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/45/25

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast march 2015

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. There were several C-class/Sf
flares observed, many of which originated from an unnumbered region on
the southeast limb and most from Region 2305. Region 2305 (S08E19,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to grow in area, maintained an increased
magnetic complexity, and produced the largest flare of the period, a
C8/1n flare at 25/0446 UTC. No Earth directed CMEs were observed with
available imagery and observation data.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for an
M-class (R1-Minor) flare for the forecast period (26-28 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was once
again at high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit returned to near background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to remain at high levels through day three (26-28 Mar). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near
background conditions for days one through three (26-28 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft reflected the continued
influence of a positive polarity high speed solar wind stream.  Wind
speed hovered between 580 and 500 km/s. Bt was at or below 7 nT while
Bz remained at or above -5 nT.  Phi was mostly positive.

.Forecast...
The high speed wind stream is expected to gradually decrease through
days one and two (26-27 Mar). A solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) to
a negative Phi orientation is forecast late on day two. A recurrent
negative polarity solar wind structure is expected to become
geoeffective, with velocities near 700 km/s expected for day three (28
Mar).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels in response to
the continued influence of the positive polarity high speed solar wind
stream.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to unsettled
levels through day one (26 Mar).  Unsettled to active conditions are
expected on day two (27 Mar) with the SSBC. Day three (28 Mar) is
forecast to see activity as high as a minor storm due to the onset of
the recurrent negative polarity high speed stream.