Wednesday, September 06, 2017

M9.3 Eruption / Earth Directed CME / Radiation Storm

September 5, 2017 @ 19:00 UTC
Strong G3 Storm Watch
Possibly a treat in the works for aurora sky watchers. A Strong (G3) geomagnetic storm watch will be in effect beginning Wednesday (September 6) when the coronal mass ejection (CME) observed Monday is expected to sweep past Earth. Sky watchers across middle to high latitudes should be alert during the next 48 hours. More updates regarding this to follow.
September 5, 2017 @ 00:45 UTC
M5.5 Eruption / Earth Directed CME / Radiation Storm
Moderately strong M5.5 solar flare event observed around region 2673 on Monday evening.UPDATE: An update regarding the M5.5 solar flare event around region 2673 this evening at 20:33 UTC. The flare was associated with a Type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 1472 km/s, along with a 10cm radio burst (TenFlare) lasting 52 minutes and measuring 1600 solar flux units (SFU). Low energy proton levels as measured by the GOES-13 spacecraft are currently on the rise. Updated coronagraph imagery courtesy of LASCO C3 shows a coronal mass ejection (CME) leaving the sun and at least a portion of this cloud may be Earth directed. More updates to follow.

Solar Activity latest

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels as Region 2673 (S09W36,
Dkc/beta-gamma-delta), produced an X2/2b flare at 06/0910 UTC. Though
this is largest flare this region has produced to date, no CME was
associated with the event. This region remained a magnetically complex
and active sunspot region. Region 2674 (N14W20, Fhi/beta) was inactive
for the period despite its potential. The remaining regions were stable
and inactive as well. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in
coronagraph imagery during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the
next three days (06-08 Sep), mostly due to the flare potential and
recent history of Region 2673. Radio blackouts reaching the R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) levels are expected for the next three days (06-08
Sep), with a chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 3,780 pfu observed at 05/1730 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux reached S2 (Moderate) levels with a peak flux of 210 pfu at
05/1930 UTC.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high
levels for the next three days (06-08 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to continue at S2 (Moderate) levels over the
next two days (06-07 Sep) with a chance for S1 (Minor) levels on day
three (08 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment declined to nominal conditions early in the
period. Solar wind speeds have been steady near 460 km/s. Total field
has been less than 5 nT, while the Bz component has been mostly
northward. The phi angle has been mostly positive.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on days one
and two (06-07 Sep) due to impact from the 04 Sep CME. Elevated solar
wind parameters are expected into day three (08 Sep) with the onset of a
recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS, in addition to lingering CME
effects.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to start off at quiet to unsettled
levels on day one (06 Sep). G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels are
likely by mid-to-late day with the arrival of the 04 CME. G3 conditions
are again likely into day two (07 Sep) due to ongoing CME effects. Day
three (08 Sep) is expected to be at mostly active levels with a chance
for G1 (Minor) storm levels being reached due to the onset of a
recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS, and any residual CME effects.