Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 23/0950Z from Region 2192 (S14W06). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 503 km/s at 22/2349Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1717Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6898 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (24 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one through three (24-26 Oct). III. Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct Class M 85/85/85 Class X 45/45/45 Proton 35/40/45 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Oct 227 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 230/230/230 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 138 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 012/015-009/010-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 45/30/25
Oct 23 2014, Current Solar Flare Activity, current solar flares, solar wind activity, Latest Solar Flare Activity, solar flare activity, solar activity 2014, 2014, oct 2014
Good morning. Here is an updated look at the visible solar disk, along with active region (AR) 2192 on Thursday. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was high. AR 2192 was responsible for a strong X1.6 solar flare on Wednesday peaking at 14:28 UTC. Unfortunately for sky watchers, the latest event again failed to produce a coronal mass ejection (CME). The active region also produced a few M-Flares, including an M1.1 at 09:50 UTC Thursday morning. AR 2192 expanded to a size of 2700 millionths which puts it on par, at least in terms of total area coverage with legendary Cycle 23 sunspot 486 from October 2003. AR 2192 is now in a near perfect geoeffective position for Earth directed eruptions. The cluster still maintains a complex Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and could produce additional moderate to strong solar flares. Elsewhere, a region located near the southeast limb produced an M1.4 flare at 15:57 UTC Wednesday, along with a handful of C-Flares. All other visible regions are currently stable.