Thursday, June 12, 2014

Solar flare storm activity Forecast june 13 2014

 Solar flare storm activity Forecast june 13 2014
 
Solar activity reached high levels today as Regions 2085 (S20W58,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta), 2087 (S18E43, Dac/beta-gamma-delta), and 2089
(N18E03, Dai/beta) all produced low level M-class flares.  The largest
flare of the period was an M3 flare at 12/2216 UTC from Region 2085. It
was accompanied by Type II (est shock speed 1679 km/s) and Type IV radio
sweeps as well as a 10 cm burst (220 sfu). Region 2087 produced an M2/Sf
at 12/0421 UTC, an M2/1f at 12/1021 UTC, and an M1/Sf at 12/2113 UTC.
Region 2089 produced an M1/Sf flare at 12/2003 UTC.

Slight growth was observed in the intermediate spots of Regions 2080
(S11W64, Dki/beta-gamma-delta), 2087, and 2085.  Slight decay was
observed in the trailing spots of Region 2085.  Region 2089 appeared to
be in a slow growth phase.  The rest of the spotted regions were either
stable or in decay.   Multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed off both east and west limbs throughout the period, however
none appeared to have an Earth-directed component.  SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery was only available until 12/1548 UTC.  Further analysis of
later CMEs will be performed as imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a chance for further X-class flaring (R3-Strong or
greater) for the forecast period (13-15 Jun) due to flare potential from
Regions 2080, 2085, 2087, and 2089.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (13-15 Jun). 
There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor or
greater) for the forecast period as Regions 2080 and 2085 remain in a
well connected location.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed was in decline during the period from a high of 570
km/s at 12/0203 UTC to end of period values near 355 km/s.  Total field
ranged from 2 nT to 5 nT while the Bz component was mostly north ranging
from -2 nT to +4 nT.  Phi angle was mostly positive (away) throughout
the period.

.Forecast...
Two enhancements in solar wind parameters are expected by mid to late on
days 1 and 2 (13-14 Jun) from a potential shock enhancement from a CME
that occurred on 10 Jun and an earlier faint partial halo CME from 09
June.  WSA Enlil modelling predicts arrival times of these CMEs to be
around 13/1200 UTC and 14/1900 UTC respectively.  Solar wind speeds are
expected to begin to diminish on day 3 (15 Jun) as CME effects wane.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
By approximately mid-day on day 1, a possible glancing blow from the 10
Jun CME is expected to cause active conditions with a chance for G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storming.  By day 2 (14 Jun), quiet to active
conditions are expected as CME effects persist along with the expected
arrival of a second CME associated with a C9 flare on 09 Jun by late in
the period.  Unsettled periods are expected to persist early on day 3
(15 Jun) as CME effects diminish, followed by mostly quiet periods.

Monday, February 24, 2014

X4.9 Solar Flare 02/24/2014 - possibility of a coronal mass ejection CME

The X4.9 Solar Flare was associated with a Type II radio emission with a velocity of nearly 2000 km/s. This indicates the possibility of a coronal mass ejection. A 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 3700 sfu and lasting 85 minutes was also recorded. Despite newly renumbered region 1990 being close to the limb, it is still possible to be flanked by a CME from this location if it happens to be large enough. More updates to follow if a CME is associated. Attached video by SDO.


ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1972 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.


SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0042 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
End Time: 2014 Feb 25 0107 UTC
Duration: 85 minutes
Peak Flux: 3700 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 171 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.