May 07 Report of Latest Solar flare and Wind Storm Activity 2012
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. Even though Region 1476 (N10E48) is the largest, 810
Millionths, and most magnetically complex, Fkc/beta-gamma; todays
only M-class event came from the sunspot cluster Region 1470
(S15W57) and Region 1471 (S19W50). This sunspot complex produced an
M1/1n x-ray event at 07/1431Z. Multiple discrete radio frequency
bursts were associated with this event, as well as a 240 sfu
Tenflare and a Type IV radio sweep. These characteristics, as well
as COR2 imagery from the STEREO A spacecraft suggest an Earth
directed CME. Initial analysis suggests only a weak disturbance of
the Earths magnetic field. Earlier in the day around 07/0400Z,
another CME was observed in STEREO A imagery but after analysis, it
was determined to not have an Earth-directed component. Region 1476
continues to grow in size and magnetic complexity as it rotates
further onto the solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (08 - 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 May) as a
solar sector boundary crossing is expected, as well as possible
effects from a weak CME, observed leaving the solar disk on 05 May.
Quiet to unsettled with a chance for active levels are expected on
day two (09 May), as a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) moves
into a geoeffective position. Quiet to active levels with a chance
for minor storm levels are expected on day three (10 May) as effect
from the CH HSS continue with the possible arrival of todays CME.
