Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels as Region 2673 (S09W36, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta), produced an X2/2b flare at 06/0910 UTC. Though this is largest flare this region has produced to date, no CME was associated with the event. This region remained a magnetically complex and active sunspot region. Region 2674 (N14W20, Fhi/beta) was inactive for the period despite its potential. The remaining regions were stable and inactive as well. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery during the period. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (06-08 Sep), mostly due to the flare potential and recent history of Region 2673. Radio blackouts reaching the R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) levels are expected for the next three days (06-08 Sep), with a chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 3,780 pfu observed at 05/1730 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S2 (Moderate) levels with a peak flux of 210 pfu at 05/1930 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels for the next three days (06-08 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at S2 (Moderate) levels over the next two days (06-07 Sep) with a chance for S1 (Minor) levels on day three (08 Sep). Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment declined to nominal conditions early in the period. Solar wind speeds have been steady near 460 km/s. Total field has been less than 5 nT, while the Bz component has been mostly northward. The phi angle has been mostly positive. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on days one and two (06-07 Sep) due to impact from the 04 Sep CME. Elevated solar wind parameters are expected into day three (08 Sep) with the onset of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS, in addition to lingering CME effects. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to start off at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Sep). G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels are likely by mid-to-late day with the arrival of the 04 CME. G3 conditions are again likely into day two (07 Sep) due to ongoing CME effects. Day three (08 Sep) is expected to be at mostly active levels with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels being reached due to the onset of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS, and any residual CME effects.
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Wednesday, September 06, 2017
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Tuesday, September 05, 2017
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Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels due to Region 2673 (S08W16, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) producing multiple M-class flares, the largest of which was a M5 flare observed at 04/2033 UTC. This region showed steady growth throughout the period, in addition to becoming more complex magnetically. Region 2674 (N14E06, Fhi/beta) was relatively stable producing only one C1/sf flare early in the period. The remaining regions were stable and inactive. Initial available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery indicated a likely asymmetric full halo CME was associated with the M5 flare from Region 2673. In addition, Type-II and Type-IV radio sweeps were observed around the time of the M5 flare, beginning at 04/2042 UTC, as well as 10cm radio bursts. Additional analysis of the CME will be conducted as coronagraph imagery becomes available. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (05-07 Sep) mostly due to the flare potential and recent history of Region 2673. Radio blackouts reaching the R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) levels are expected for the next three days (05-07 Sep), with a chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 15,800 pfu observed at 04/1805 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux values observed a slight enhancement that was likely associated with the M5 flare from Region 2673, but remained below alert thresholds. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels for the next three days (04-06 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux could see minor enhancements associated with increased flare activity, but is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) thresholds. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters remained elevated due to influences from a polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were steady around 475 km/s for most of the reporting period, then began to increase to around 585 km/s near the end of the day. Total magnetic field strength was at a nominal 5 nT through about 04/1600 UTC, increased to 9 nT briefly, then leveled back off late in the day. Bz was predominately variable, then remained southward for several hours, seeing a maximum southward deflection to -7 nT. Phi angle was mostly in a positive orientation, but began to show signs of rotation by midday. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to continue to trend towards background levels late on day one (05 Sep). Nominal levels are expected by days two and three (06-07 Sep). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated G1-Minor geomagnetic storming period at the end of the day, likely associated with sustained -Bz. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated periods of G1-Minor storming periods early in the period, as the CH HSS influence tapers over the next day (05 Sep). Quiet conditions are expected by days two and three (06-07 Sep), with a slight chance for unsettled conditions, ahead of another CH HSS of negative polarity.
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