SWPC Real-time Monitor

Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels due to Region 2673 (S08W16,
Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) producing multiple M-class flares, the largest of
which was a M5 flare observed at 04/2033 UTC. This region showed steady
growth throughout the period, in addition to becoming more complex
magnetically. Region 2674 (N14E06, Fhi/beta) was relatively stable
producing only one C1/sf flare early in the period. The remaining
regions were stable and inactive.

Initial available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery indicated a likely
asymmetric full halo CME was associated with the M5 flare from Region
2673. In addition, Type-II and Type-IV radio sweeps were observed
around the time of the M5 flare, beginning at 04/2042 UTC, as well as 
10cm radio bursts. Additional analysis of the CME will be conducted as
coronagraph imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the
next three days (05-07 Sep) mostly due to the flare potential and recent
history of Region 2673. Radio blackouts reaching the R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) levels are expected for the next three days (05-07
Sep), with a chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with
a maximum flux of 15,800 pfu observed at 04/1805 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux values observed a slight enhancement that was likely
associated with the M5 flare from Region 2673, but remained below alert
thresholds.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high
levels for the next three days (04-06 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux could see minor enhancements associated with increased flare
activity, but is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) thresholds.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained elevated due to influences from a
polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were steady
around 475 km/s for most of the reporting period, then began to increase
to around 585 km/s near the end of the day. Total magnetic field
strength was at a nominal 5 nT through about 04/1600 UTC, increased to 9
nT briefly, then leveled back off late in the day. Bz was predominately
variable, then remained southward for several hours, seeing a maximum
southward deflection to -7 nT. Phi angle was mostly in a positive
orientation, but began to show signs of rotation by midday.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to continue to trend towards
background levels late on day one (05 Sep). Nominal levels are expected
by days two and three (06-07 Sep).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated
G1-Minor geomagnetic storming period at the end of the day, likely
associated with sustained -Bz.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels, with
isolated periods of G1-Minor storming periods early in the period, as
the CH HSS influence tapers over the next day (05 Sep). Quiet conditions
are expected by days two and three (06-07 Sep), with a slight chance for
unsettled conditions, ahead of another CH HSS of negative polarity.