Friday, February 10, 2012

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Another CME is now seen in the latest Lasco C2 images, this time off the eastern...
February 9, 2012 at 3:00 PM
 
Another CME is now seen in the latest Lasco C2 images, this time off the eastern limb. Returning active regions should begin to rotate into view by the weekend.

   
   
Ron Cottrell captured a tall prominence this evening off the eastern limb. "I ca...
February 9, 2012 at 2:27 PM
 
Ron Cottrell captured a tall prominence this evening off the eastern limb. "I caught this huge prominence at 20:44 UTC. It was faint and short lived. I had to crank up the gain to catch it. I estimate its height at 22 earth diameters."

   
   
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 040 Issued a...
February 9, 2012 at 2:23 PM
 
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels due to C-class flaring
from Region 1415 (N10W73), the largest a C2/Sf at 08/2217Z. The
region showed little change as it approached the west limb. New
Region 1416 (S16E24) emerged on the disk as a D-type spot group and
produced two B9 x-ray events. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels for the next three days (10 - 12 February). A slight
chance for M-class activity exists on days two and three due to the
anticipated return of old Region 1402 (N26, L=213).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods observed at high latitudes. ACE satellite wind
velocities began the period at about 450 km/s and gradually
decreased to near 360 km/s through 09/1230Z. During this same time
frame, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not
vary much beyond +/- 4 nT. By 09/1230Z, an increase in temperature,
density, velocity and Bt were recorded at ACE. These signatures
were indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a
coronal high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated high
latitude active periods on day one (10 February). This activity is
due to effects from a geoeffective CH HSS. By day two (11
February), quiet to unsettled conditions are expected as the CH HSS
rotates out of a geoeffective position. Day three (12 February) is
expected to see a return to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
high latitude active intervals due to another CH HSS that will move
into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M 05/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 099
Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 105/115/120
90 Day Mean 09 Feb 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 006/008-004/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/05/30
Minor storm 10/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/10/40
Minor storm 20/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
   
   
The official Solar Flux value for Feb 9, 2012 is 99.
February 9, 2012 at 1:11 PM
 
The official Solar Flux value for Feb 9, 2012 is 99.
   
   
The new sunspot that should be numbered 1416 today, continues to grow in the sou...
February 9, 2012 at 10:49 AM
 
The new sunspot that should be numbered 1416 today, continues to grow in the southeast quadrant. Judging by the SDO magnetic image, there appears to be some polarity mixing within the center of the group. Keep an eye on this region for the possibility of Solar Flares.

   
   
A new sunspot is growing rapidly in the southeast quadrant and should be numbere...
February 9, 2012 at 4:59 AM
 
A new sunspot is growing rapidly in the southeast quadrant and should be numbered 1416 on Thursday. This region is currently producing low level solar flares. There will continue to be a chance for C-Class flares on Thursday. Elsewhere, newly numbered region 1415 remains stable as it approaches the western limb.

   
   
The new Sunspot in the southeast quadrant continues to expand and is producing l...
February 9, 2012 at 4:49 AM
 
The new Sunspot in the southeast quadrant continues to expand and is producing low level solar flares. This region should be numbered 1416 on Thursday.

   
   
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is seen billowing away off the northwest limb this...
February 9, 2012 at 4:46 AM
 
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is seen billowing away off the northwest limb this morning. This could be related to activity surrounding Sunspot 1410 which is now out of direct Earth view.

   
   
Updated SDO image of the new Sunspot growing in the southeast quadrant.
February 8, 2012 at 4:06 PM
 
Updated SDO image of the new Sunspot growing in the southeast quadrant.

   
   
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 039 Issued a...
February 8, 2012 at 2:33 PM
 
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N16W90) produced a
slow rise and fall, limb event, C7 x-ray flare at 07/2216Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (09-11 February).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled over the period due to
elevated ambient solar wind speeds and periods of southward Bz.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods for days 1-2 (09-10 February) due to coronal hole effects.
Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels on day 3 (11
February).

III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 097
Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 08 Feb 137

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 008/008-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/05
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/10
Minor storm 20/20/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
   
   
The official Solar Flux value for Feb 8, 2012 is 97. This is the first time the...
February 8, 2012 at 1:18 PM
 
The official Solar Flux value for Feb 8, 2012 is 97. This is the first time the Flux reading has been below 100 since August 19, 2011.
   
     
 
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