Ron Cottrell captured a tall prominence this evening off the eastern limb. "I caught this huge prominence at 20:44 UTC. It was faint and short lived. I had to crank up the gain to catch it. I estimate its height at 22 earth diameters."
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels due to C-class flaring from Region 1415 (N10W73), the largest a C2/Sf at 08/2217Z. The region showed little change as it approached the west limb. New Region 1416 (S16E24) emerged on the disk as a D-type spot group and produced two B9 x-ray events. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next three days (10 - 12 February). A slight chance for M-class activity exists on days two and three due to the anticipated return of old Region 1402 (N26, L=213).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods observed at high latitudes. ACE satellite wind velocities began the period at about 450 km/s and gradually decreased to near 360 km/s through 09/1230Z. During this same time frame, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT. By 09/1230Z, an increase in temperature, density, velocity and Bt were recorded at ACE. These signatures were indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated high latitude active periods on day one (10 February). This activity is due to effects from a geoeffective CH HSS. By day two (11 February), quiet to unsettled conditions are expected as the CH HSS rotates out of a geoeffective position. Day three (12 February) is expected to see a return to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated high latitude active intervals due to another CH HSS that will move into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb Class M 05/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Feb 099 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 105/115/120 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 006/008-004/005-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/05/30 Minor storm 10/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/10/40 Minor storm 20/05/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
The new sunspot that should be numbered 1416 today, continues to grow in the southeast quadrant. Judging by the SDO magnetic image, there appears to be some polarity mixing within the center of the group. Keep an eye on this region for the possibility of Solar Flares.
A new sunspot is growing rapidly in the southeast quadrant and should be numbered 1416 on Thursday. This region is currently producing low level solar flares. There will continue to be a chance for C-Class flares on Thursday. Elsewhere, newly numbered region 1415 remains stable as it approaches the western limb.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N16W90) produced a slow rise and fall, limb event, C7 x-ray flare at 07/2216Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next 3 days (09-11 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled over the period due to elevated ambient solar wind speeds and periods of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for days 1-2 (09-10 February) due to coronal hole effects. Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels on day 3 (11 February).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Feb 097 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/05 Minor storm 10/10/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/40/10 Minor storm 20/20/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01