Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with the chance for M-class flares over the next 3 days
(14-16 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes and
ranged between unsettled to minor storm levels at high latitudes.
The activity was the result of a sub-storm as well as the onset of
short lived coronal hole high speed stream effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin day 1 (14 February) at quiet to unsettled levels.
Between 06Z and 12Z, an anticipated glancing blow from the CME on 11
February is expected at Earth, with a subsequent increase in
geomagnetic activity. Primarily unsettled and active levels are
forecast to persist throughout the day, with an isolated minor storm
possible. Conditions on day 2 (15 February) should begin to subside,
with quiet and unsettled levels expected during recovery from the
transient. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (16
February).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 108
Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 13 Feb 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 012/018-006/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/10
Minor storm 20/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/30/10
Minor storm 30/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
