Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with the chance for M-class flares over the next 3 days (14-16 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes and ranged between unsettled to minor storm levels at high latitudes. The activity was the result of a sub-storm as well as the onset of short lived coronal hole high speed stream effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to begin day 1 (14 February) at quiet to unsettled levels. Between 06Z and 12Z, an anticipated glancing blow from the CME on 11 February is expected at Earth, with a subsequent increase in geomagnetic activity. Primarily unsettled and active levels are forecast to persist throughout the day, with an isolated minor storm possible. Conditions on day 2 (15 February) should begin to subside, with quiet and unsettled levels expected during recovery from the transient. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (16 February).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Feb 108 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 012/018-006/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/10 Minor storm 20/10/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 50/30/10 Minor storm 30/10/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01
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