Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The disk and limb were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (17 - 19 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. ACE solar wind velocities varied between 350 to 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northward to +5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (17 February) through late on day two (18 February). Late on day two and through day three (19 February), field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels, due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Feb 103 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 018/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 006/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/30/30 Minor storm 01/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/40/40 Minor storm 01/20/20 Major-severe storm 01/05/05
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