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Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1515 (S15W89) produced the largest event of the period, a C7/Sf at 09/0830Z. Region 1520 (S17E33) continued its growth phase in area coverage, spot count and magnetic complexity, but remained relatively quiet through the period. New Region 1521 (S22E21) was numbered as a D-type group. A large filament eruption was observed in the SW quadrant at about 09/0930Z. At the time of its eruption, the 23 degree long filament was centered near S35W32. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the previous 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days (10 - 12 July). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with high latitude major storm intervals. This activity was most likely a result of CME effects from the 04 July M1 event. ACE solar data indicated wind velocities ranged between 400 to 450 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was generally south throughout the period ranging between -5 to -10 nT from about 09/0600Z through the end of the period. Interplanetary field strength was at 10 to 12 nT through most of the period. A greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit began at 09/0130Z, reached a maximum of 19 pfu at 09/0430Z and ended at 09/1445Z. This weak SEP event was most likely associated with the 08 July M6/1n flare from Region 1515. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods on day one (10 July) due to possible weak effects from the 06 July CME. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected for days two and three (11 - 12 July). III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul Class M 80/80/80 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Jul 174 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 125 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 015/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 018/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 013/015-007/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/05 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 30/20/15 Major-severe storm 25/10/05
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1515 (S15W89) produced the largest event of the period, a C7/Sf at 09/0830Z. Region 1520 (S17E33) continued its growth phase in area coverage, spot count and magnetic complexity, but remained relatively quiet through the period. New Region 1521 (S22E21) was numbered as a D-type group. A large filament eruption was observed in the SW quadrant at about 09/0930Z. At the time of its eruption, the 23 degree long filament was centered near S35W32. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the previous 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days (10 - 12 July). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with high latitude major storm intervals. This activity was most likely a result of CME effects from the 04 July M1 event. ACE solar data indicated wind velocities ranged between 400 to 450 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was generally south throughout the period ranging between -5 to -10 nT from about 09/0600Z through the end of the period. Interplanetary field strength was at 10 to 12 nT through most of the period. A greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit began at 09/0130Z, reached a maximum of 19 pfu at 09/0430Z and ended at 09/1445Z. This weak SEP event was most likely associated with the 08 July M6/1n flare from Region 1515. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods on day one (10 July) due to possible weak effects from the 06 July CME. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected for days two and three (11 - 12 July). III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul Class M 80/80/80 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Jul 174 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 125 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 015/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 018/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 013/015-007/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/05 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 30/20/15 Major-severe storm 25/10/05
