Solar and Geophysical Activity Report of 06 Mar 2012

Updated Mar 06 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. There were five M-class x-ray
events during the past 24 hours, all from Region 1429 (N17E31). The
largest event was an M2/1n 06/1241Z. None of these events was
associated with a CME that would be expected to be geoeffective.
Region 1429 dominates the disk in area (about 1010 millionths), and
exhibited growth during the period. The trailer portion showed the
most development but has separated a bit from the main cluster of
spots. The central portion is magnetically complex and shows
multiple deltas as well as strong shear along a pair of east-west
polarity inversion lines. Region 1428 (S17E08) also showed some
growth during the period (area of 280 millionths) but is simple
magnetically and was relatively quiet.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Additional M-class events from Region 1429 are likely.
There is also a chance for a major flare and/or proton producing
event from Region 1429 during the next three days (07-09 March).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. ACE solar wind
measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field showed steady
strengthening during the period and there were numerous intervals of
weakly southward Bz. The greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement
continued throughout the period and reached a peak value of 4 PFU at
06/1335Z. The flux appeared to be on a slow declining trend at the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods during the next 24 hours (07 March). The increase in
activity is expected due to combined effects from a co-rotating
interaction region with the CME that occurred on 04 March
(associated with the M2 x-ray event). Later in the day additional
effects are expected due to a glancing blow from the full halo CME
associated with the X1 x-ray event that occurred on 05 March.
Predominantly unsettled levels with a chance for active periods are
expected for the second day (08 March) as effects from the
anticipated disturbance should diminish. Predominantly quiet levels
are expected for the third day (09 March).

III.  Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Mar 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  An X1/2b flare occurred
at 05/0409Z from Region 1429 (N17E41).  This flare was associated
with a full halo CME with a LASCO C3 plane of sky speed of about
1340 km/sec.  Region 1429 has a beta-delta magnetic class with an
area of approximately 810 millionths, and appears to be growing. The
region produced additional M-class flares during the period.  New
Region 1431 (S27W36) was numbered today and is a small B-type
sunspot group.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, but there is a chance for additional major flare activity
and/or a greater than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled with the
exception of some active to minor storm periods at high latitudes. A
greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement began at about 05/0030Z.
Flux levels remained elevated throughout the day and reached a peak
of 3.9 pfu at 05/1630Z. The initial increase was associated with the
long duration M2 flare of 04 March, but additional particles were
also contributed by todays X1/CME event. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for day 1 (06 Mar) due to
combined effects from the M4/CME event observed on 04 March and a
favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream.  Active
conditions with a chance for minor storm periods are forecast for
the second day (07 Mar) due to a expected glancing blow from todays
X1/full halo CME.  Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for
the third day (08 Mar).

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

The strongest solar storms outbreak in five years - Autos

NASA's solar dynamics observation satellite measurements to five years of the most violent

solar radiation outbreak, arrived in earth can cause moderate geomagnetic storms, influence on

earth satellite communication and power supplies. According to the observation of solar

dynamics observation satellite, aside from a small radiation storm outside, the sun eruption

coupled with a flare and a halo material eruption.

The national weather service space weather prediction center project coordinator Cardiff, bill

mourinho tower said: "this time the outbreak started very dramatic." He pointed out that

medium solar flare in 6 at 1am edt 41 points (the GMT at 5 a.m. 41 points) peak. "We first

observed flare scale doesn't big, in the ensuing eruption process, we observed high-energy

particle radiation and large-scale halo material eruption. Can you observed out from the sun

all the material, the surface is very spectacular sight."

The sun dynamics observation satellite launched in 2010, filming the sun outbreaks of high-

definition pictures and video. According to the observation, the sun eruption in visually

spectacular, because of the earth, not positive influence on the earth can be very small. NASA

said in a statement: "rising particle formation huge mushroom, then fell back to the sun to

the surface, seems covered nearly half of the sun to the surface."

Randolph points out, intentions space weather analysts are eyeing the sun eruption, to

determine whether it leads to the sun and earth happened between magnetic field collide. Sun

in about 150 million km distance to the left. He said in an interview with the French media:

"part of our job is to monitor the sun and determine whether an outbreak of substance is

flying to the earth, because the material basically is jet with gas and magnetic. In a day or

two, we will see time some of the substance in the sun injection effect, form the earth. We do

not believe that geomagnetic storms this will be a very severe geomagnetic storms, but

strength can still reach the medium level."

Space weather prediction center, said the sun eruption triggered in 8 small to medium-sized

geomagnetic storms, from about the GMT 18 PM. Any geomagnetic storms activities will end in 24

hours. The national weather service said: "the sun radiation during the storm there are lots

of high-energy protons, this type of activity since since December 2006 was the first

observed."

A total of 12 satellite and spacecraft to the moon, NASA surveillance sunlight layer survey of

the instrument to be able to carry the orbiter to radiation that can be measured and analyzed

the influence of. Radiation effects cosmic ray telescope (CRaTER) project chief researcher Hal

orchid spencer said: "CRaTER task two years ago, this is starting to see the most important

event. This is an exciting moment. Ironically, in planning this task, we originally thought

should be in the sun, because acuteness activity peaks launch the solar particles activities

usually in this period. In fact, we in the sun, and the sun tiny period launch activities will

take a long time to revive. This is an interesting and important moment, because all the signs

are that the sun was back to active state."

The sun from an outbreak of geomagnetic storms on earth will affect some of the grid, global

positioning systems use satellites and other equipment, but also will lead to fly over the

polar regions of the flights are over to change course. He said: "normally would not cause

greater destruction, threat within the scope of the controllable. If by jet to Asia, from the

United States over the arctic, you'll find ten flights. Every day is like this. When massive

radiation storm, some airlines will because of safety concerns to change course, away from the

flight to ensure flight polar regions keep communications smooth. The company will also

operating satellites close attention, because geomagnetic storms will in various ways to

interfere with satellite and received signal receiver." NASA says, in 8 evening and 9, polar

regions may also observed aurora borealis and aboard.

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Solar Flare Activity March 05 2012

Major X Class Solar Flare
A long duration and major X1.1 solar flare peaked at 04:09 UTC Monday morning around Sunspot 1429. A strong R3 Level Radio Blackout resulted. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is now seen in the latest STEREO Behind and Lasco images. The expanding plasma cloud is mostly heading towards the north and east, however a small portion looks to be Earth directed. This is the 10th largest solar flare of the current Sunspot Cycle and it also happens to be the 10th X-Class flare as well. Stay Tuned for the latest updates.