Showing posts with label Flare. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Flare. Show all posts

Thursday, August 15, 2013

latest current solar flare storm activity august 15 2013


 latest current solar flare storm activity august 15 2013
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the period, a
C2/Sf flare, erupted from Region 1818 (S07W07, Dki/beta) at 15/1756 UTC.
The region continued to exhibit a horizontal shear line and slight areal
growth over the period. The other region of interest, Region 1817
(S21W31, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited some intermediate spot decay
but redeveloped intermixed magnetic fields including a weak delta within
the large leader spot. The region was responsible for a C1/Sf at 15/1835
UTC. Two new regions were numbered during the period; Region 1822
(S08E57, Dao/beta) rapidly evolved on the disk and Region 1823 (S07E72,
Hsx/alpha) rotated onto the disk. The remaining spot groups were either
stable or in slight decay. At about 14/2000 UTC, both SDO/AIA 304 and
GONG H-alpha imagery observed a 21 degree long filament eruption
centered near S28W70. At 14/2200 UTC, SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed 
a slow-moving CME off the SW limb with a majority of the ejecta directed
just south of the ecliptic plane. WSA Enlil analysis indicated this CME
did not have an Earth-directed component.
.Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain low for the next three days (16 - 18 Aug) with a chance for M-class activity (R1-R2 Radio Blackouts). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels, for the next three days (16 - 18 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background levels for the next three days (16 - 18 Aug). Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft were consistent with coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) conditions as Earth remained under the influence of (-) CH54. Winds speeds began the period at around 475 km/s and remained steady at this speed through about 15/1130 UTC. A gradual rise was then observed to about 600 km/s through 15/1845 UTC where speeds remained steady through the end of the period. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt varied between 4 nT and 11 nT while the Bz component of the IMF varied between +11 to -9 nT. Phi was in a predominately negative (toward) orientation through about 15/1000 UTC when it became variable between negative and positive (away). .Forecast... Solar wind conditions should continue to reflect CH HSS effects for the next two days (16 - 17 Aug). Peak speeds are forecast to be in the 550 km/s to 600 km/s range as the bulk of CH54 becomes more geoeffective. By day three (18 Aug), solar wind speeds are expected to slowly decrease as CH HSS effects began to wane. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS effects. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods on day one (16 Aug) as CH HSS effects persist. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (17 Aug) becoming mostly quiet on day three (18 Aug) as CH HSS effects wane

Monday, November 19, 2012

Current Solar Flare Activity on 12/21/2012

12 21 2012, or December 21 2012 is often a date associated with the finish with the world. This date, 12 21 2012, arrives mostly from the extended count in the Mayan calendar. The Mayans for reasons unidentified were quite innovative within the study of astronomy. Their calendar is really many calendars in one. The calendar referred to as the extended count is the one which notes 12 21 2012 since the conclude in the earth as we realize it.The reason for this day is quite problematic. On December 21, 2012 or 12 21 2012, for the 1st time in 26000 a long time, the sun will conjunct the milky way, along with the elliptical plane

The Mayan Calendar has left us with a profound mystery. Academia, science and the clergy have labored long over the question as to why the calendar was extrapolated into the 21st century and why, on December 21st, 2012, it abruptly ends?


Eschatology could be the research in the stop of life on earth. There are several speculations just before 12 21 2012. One of many most recent instances for such speculation was referred to as Y2K. Though Y2K primarily was regarding computer systems, some noticed it like an indication from the end occasions. I think that a lot of folks experience that 2012 could be the conclude for any range of good reasons. Very first of all, guilt could play a part within this. Surely the human race has considerably to be ashamed of. Furthermore, many weather conditions changes and adjustments to our environment have taken spot. We've got noticed what alterations in local weather can do to our civilization in storms such as Katrina. Moreover to all of this, considerably of the world is facing horrible financial conditions

As the predicted date of the end of the world, that is the 12 21 2012 Polar Shift, draws nearer, the more we need to focus our attention on the innumerable things that could possibly happen on planet Earth. Theorists and experts alike have in fact, enumerated a number of possibilities that can take place come year 2012. Although there is no scientific proof to confirm that all such predictions will surely come true, there are countless of predictions about the possibilities that can happen in the envisaged Doomsday of 2012. Here are just a few of these possibilities that you should know regarding the December 12, 2012 Polar Shift so that you can be prepared as to what can possibly occur during such time:
1. Asteroid, Meteor And Comet
First and foremost, experts and theorists predict the possibility of experiencing an orbit which may culminate by colliding with our planet earth in the year 2012. While this may be the most predictable catastrophe come 2012, it will still be good to not doubt it and instead, equip ourselves with the appropriate survival kit to make sure that we stay alive even if the predicted phenomenon finally takes place.
2. Coronal Mass Ejection From The Sun
For those who may not know it, the CME or Coronal Mass Ejection which came from the sun and caused the year 1859's solar storm, is actually true. Such event took place during the month of September of 1859 bringing about a failure in the telegraph systems from corner to corner of North America as well as Europe. The same event is in fact, predicted to occur in the year 2012 when the end of the world is envisaged to take place. What is more, it is also forecast that there are going to be huge storms bringing such massive power blackouts at the same time, the wreckage of satellites.
3. Magnetic Pole Shift
Polar reversals such as the 12 21 2012 Polar Shift are predicted to be occurring at a time gap of 400,000 years. In fact, the most current polar shift that occurred happened about 730,000 years ago and not too many people even know about it. You see, even our scientists still lack the knowledge about polar reversals, in the same manner that they are not so sure until now, about how such magnetic fields are generated. Although they are able to predict that geomagnetic reversals such as the 12 21 2012 Polar Shift, would take about hundreds and hundreds of years to take place and that they actually cause no harm at all. But then this has been disputed as it was found out that polar shifts can actually take place in just a snap of the fingers, yes, as in anytime.
4. Explosion From The Black Hole
Another possibility that is expected to take place after a polar shift in planet Earth is the possible danger of a Galactic core explosion, or what is simply an explosion from the Black Hole at the center or middle of our galaxy. It is expected that such incident will bring about some cosmic ray super waves that would be gestured by a burst of gamma rays. These bursts are actually believed to cause the massively destructive tsunamis in our planet.

 There are many theories regarding just what will transpire on 12 21 2012. Several feel that solar flare activity will improve significantly and that a huge solar flare will strike the earth causing destruction. Other theories incorporate the earth being struck by a mystery planet or asteroid known as planet x. Nonetheless other speculations say that the earths wobble on its axis, will trigger drastic modifications while in the earths weather and environment creating mass destruction by components this kind of as tidal waves. Even though there are many diverse theories,several authorities agree that "something" will occur in 2012.Some people imagine that 2012 will mark the finish of everyday living on our planet, even though other people do not. Some see it as being a time of drastic change and survival for those that transform spiritually. So called specialists link the Mayan calendar with other prophesies these as Nostradamus, as well as the end occasions explained while in the Bible inside the guide of Revelations. Nevertheless there is certainly little or no if any connection to that actual day in both of these resources.
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All of this could look just like the occasions preceding the end times.Considering that considerably with the info on 12 21 2012 is speculation, it is critical to have your data from a trustworthy resource. With this way you may make intelligent and educated decisions on what you feel. There are numerous authorities that sense 12 21 2012 is often a time for survival and good change. Let us hope that's true. 2012 Specifics

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

latest Solar flare and Geophysical Activity june13 2012


Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1506 (N11E38), 1504
(S17E28), and 1507 (S27E02) were the most active regions on the
disk.  Each region was responsible for multiple C-flares during the
period.  The largest of these came from Region 1506 which produced a
C2 flare at 12/0315Z.  All three of these regions have shown signs
of growth.  There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the
period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  There is a chance for an isolated M-class event from
Region 1504.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.  Minor
storm levels were reached from 11/2100Z to 12/0300Z.  This was
followed by an active period from 12/0300Z to 12/0600Z.  Solar wind
observations indicated a sustained interval of negative Bz from
11/1500Z to 12/0200Z with peak values around -10nT.  In addition,
the data indicated a solar sector boundary crossing starting late on
the 11th.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (June 13).  Quiet levels
are expected for 14-15 June.

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Latest Solar Flare News May 17 2012

Just as we thought we have seen the last of Sunspot 1476, the former active region decided to produce a solar flare reaching above the M5.0 level. The GOES Solar X-Ray data did show M4.6 before it stopped reporting at 01:43 UTC Thursday morning. SDO/EVE data suggests it may have been closer to M8.0. Because of the sunspots location, any possible CME may be directed mostly away from Earth.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1476 (N13W73) produced a
few C-class flares while continuing to decay. Regions 1482 (N13E10)
and 1484 (N09E38) also produced a few low level C-class events. A
pair of CMEs associated with apparent filament eruptions were
observed in LASCO C2/C3, but neither appear to be earth directed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (17-19 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  With the exception of an
isolated unsettled or active period early on day 1 (17 May) from an
expected solar sector boundary crossing, geomagnetic field
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet throughout the period
(17-19 May).

Friday, April 27, 2012

Latest Solar Flare Activity Update April 27 2012

Solar Update
Solar activity increased to moderate levels with an M1.0 solar flare detected Friday morning around Sunspot 1466 in the northern hemisphere. Sunspot 1465 in the south produced a minor C2.4 flare at 11:02 UTC. Sunspot 1469 located in the southeast quadrant, appears to be growing on Friday. Finally, A new region looks to be hiding on the southeast limb and will soon begin to rotate into view. There will continue to be a small chance for an isolated M-Class flare.



Sunspot Update: The region hiding on the southeast limb is now rotating into view and a Sunspot is  
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M1/1n flare at 27/0824Z from Region 1466 (N11W38). Other activity consisted of single, low-level C-class flares from Regions 1459 (S19W88), 1465 (S17W53), 1467 (N11E32), 1469 (S24E28) and 1466. During the period, Region 1465 developed into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration while the remaining regions showed little change. Numerous non-Earth directed CMEs were observed off the SW limb over the past 24 hours, all originating from old Region 1462 (S25, L=139) which rotated around the west on 24 April. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days (28 - 30 April). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Through the period, ACE solar wind velocities steadily decreased from about 560 km/s to near 500km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was variable between +/-4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next three days (28 - 30 April).

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Report of latest solar flare activity April 26 2012

Report of latest solar flare activity April 26 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1460 (N15W93)
and Region 1465 (S18W39) both produced C1 x-ray events at 25/2242Z
and 26/1723Z respectively. Both had associated CMEs but neither are
expected to be geoeffective. Three consecutive CMEs appeared on
LASCO/C2 imagery at 26/0924Z, 26/1148Z, and 26/1638Z. All three
were around the west limb and are not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three
days (27 - 29 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field started the period at minor storm levels, but
fell to quiet levels and remained mostly quiet for the remainder of
the period. This activity was attributed to Coronal Hole High Speed
Stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds have steadily decreased
from approximately 730 km/s to approximately 560 km/s. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained fairly
neutral with minor fluctuations between +3 and -5 nT. Overall, the
total field fluctuated between +2 and +8 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout
the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods for day one (27 April) as CH HSS effects begin to wane.
Days two and three (28 -29 April) are expected to be mostly quiet.



A long lasting Geomagnetic Storm that reached very close to the Strong G3 Level took place Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Visible Aurora was seen in many locations and Ham Radio operators were able to make numerous contacts via the Aurora on the 6 meter (50mhz) amateur radio band. This storm was due to a sharply south pointing component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) that allowed the solar wind to flow in and generate aurora. Things are now starting to return to quieter levels.

UPDATE: Minor Geomagnetic Storm conditions (Kp=5) did again flare up on both Tuesday and Wednesday evenings. The solar wind is currently near 500 km/s. Be on the lookout for Aurora at very high latitudes.

Updated 4/26/2012 @ 13:40 UTC
Solar Update
Solar activity is currently at very low levels. Sunspot 1460 just rotated onto the western limb and out of direct Earth view. Sunspot 1459 which continues to decay, will also join 1460 on the limb by the weekend. Elsewhere, Sunspot 1465 did have a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration, but has itself decayed and is no longer a threat for strong solar flares. There will continue to be a chance for C-Class flares.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1460 (N15W93)
and Region 1465 (S18W39) both produced C1 x-ray events at 25/2242Z
and 26/1723Z respectively. Both had associated CMEs but neither are
expected to be geoeffective. Three consecutive CMEs appeared on
LASCO/C2 imagery at 26/0924Z, 26/1148Z, and 26/1638Z. All three
were around the west limb and are not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three
days (27 - 29 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field started the period at minor storm levels, but
fell to quiet levels and remained mostly quiet for the remainder of
the period. This activity was attributed to Coronal Hole High Speed
Stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds have steadily decreased
from approximately 730 km/s to approximately 560 km/s. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained fairly
neutral with minor fluctuations between +3 and -5 nT. Overall, the
total field fluctuated between +2 and +8 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout
the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods for day one (27 April) as CH HSS effects begin to wane.
Days two and three (28 -29 April) are expected to be mostly quiet.

Tuesday, March 06, 2012

Solar and Geophysical Activity Report of 06 Mar 2012

Updated Mar 06 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. There were five M-class x-ray
events during the past 24 hours, all from Region 1429 (N17E31). The
largest event was an M2/1n 06/1241Z. None of these events was
associated with a CME that would be expected to be geoeffective.
Region 1429 dominates the disk in area (about 1010 millionths), and
exhibited growth during the period. The trailer portion showed the
most development but has separated a bit from the main cluster of
spots. The central portion is magnetically complex and shows
multiple deltas as well as strong shear along a pair of east-west
polarity inversion lines. Region 1428 (S17E08) also showed some
growth during the period (area of 280 millionths) but is simple
magnetically and was relatively quiet.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Additional M-class events from Region 1429 are likely.
There is also a chance for a major flare and/or proton producing
event from Region 1429 during the next three days (07-09 March).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. ACE solar wind
measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field showed steady
strengthening during the period and there were numerous intervals of
weakly southward Bz. The greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement
continued throughout the period and reached a peak value of 4 PFU at
06/1335Z. The flux appeared to be on a slow declining trend at the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods during the next 24 hours (07 March). The increase in
activity is expected due to combined effects from a co-rotating
interaction region with the CME that occurred on 04 March
(associated with the M2 x-ray event). Later in the day additional
effects are expected due to a glancing blow from the full halo CME
associated with the X1 x-ray event that occurred on 05 March.
Predominantly unsettled levels with a chance for active periods are
expected for the second day (08 March) as effects from the
anticipated disturbance should diminish. Predominantly quiet levels
are expected for the third day (09 March).

III.  Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Mar 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  An X1/2b flare occurred
at 05/0409Z from Region 1429 (N17E41).  This flare was associated
with a full halo CME with a LASCO C3 plane of sky speed of about
1340 km/sec.  Region 1429 has a beta-delta magnetic class with an
area of approximately 810 millionths, and appears to be growing. The
region produced additional M-class flares during the period.  New
Region 1431 (S27W36) was numbered today and is a small B-type
sunspot group.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, but there is a chance for additional major flare activity
and/or a greater than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled with the
exception of some active to minor storm periods at high latitudes. A
greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement began at about 05/0030Z.
Flux levels remained elevated throughout the day and reached a peak
of 3.9 pfu at 05/1630Z. The initial increase was associated with the
long duration M2 flare of 04 March, but additional particles were
also contributed by todays X1/CME event. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for day 1 (06 Mar) due to
combined effects from the M4/CME event observed on 04 March and a
favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream.  Active
conditions with a chance for minor storm periods are forecast for
the second day (07 Mar) due to a expected glancing blow from todays
X1/full halo CME.  Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for
the third day (08 Mar).

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

Monday, March 05, 2012

The strongest solar storms outbreak in five years - Autos

NASA's solar dynamics observation satellite measurements to five years of the most violent

solar radiation outbreak, arrived in earth can cause moderate geomagnetic storms, influence on

earth satellite communication and power supplies. According to the observation of solar

dynamics observation satellite, aside from a small radiation storm outside, the sun eruption

coupled with a flare and a halo material eruption.

The national weather service space weather prediction center project coordinator Cardiff, bill

mourinho tower said: "this time the outbreak started very dramatic." He pointed out that

medium solar flare in 6 at 1am edt 41 points (the GMT at 5 a.m. 41 points) peak. "We first

observed flare scale doesn't big, in the ensuing eruption process, we observed high-energy

particle radiation and large-scale halo material eruption. Can you observed out from the sun

all the material, the surface is very spectacular sight."

The sun dynamics observation satellite launched in 2010, filming the sun outbreaks of high-

definition pictures and video. According to the observation, the sun eruption in visually

spectacular, because of the earth, not positive influence on the earth can be very small. NASA

said in a statement: "rising particle formation huge mushroom, then fell back to the sun to

the surface, seems covered nearly half of the sun to the surface."

Randolph points out, intentions space weather analysts are eyeing the sun eruption, to

determine whether it leads to the sun and earth happened between magnetic field collide. Sun

in about 150 million km distance to the left. He said in an interview with the French media:

"part of our job is to monitor the sun and determine whether an outbreak of substance is

flying to the earth, because the material basically is jet with gas and magnetic. In a day or

two, we will see time some of the substance in the sun injection effect, form the earth. We do

not believe that geomagnetic storms this will be a very severe geomagnetic storms, but

strength can still reach the medium level."

Space weather prediction center, said the sun eruption triggered in 8 small to medium-sized

geomagnetic storms, from about the GMT 18 PM. Any geomagnetic storms activities will end in 24

hours. The national weather service said: "the sun radiation during the storm there are lots

of high-energy protons, this type of activity since since December 2006 was the first

observed."

A total of 12 satellite and spacecraft to the moon, NASA surveillance sunlight layer survey of

the instrument to be able to carry the orbiter to radiation that can be measured and analyzed

the influence of. Radiation effects cosmic ray telescope (CRaTER) project chief researcher Hal

orchid spencer said: "CRaTER task two years ago, this is starting to see the most important

event. This is an exciting moment. Ironically, in planning this task, we originally thought

should be in the sun, because acuteness activity peaks launch the solar particles activities

usually in this period. In fact, we in the sun, and the sun tiny period launch activities will

take a long time to revive. This is an interesting and important moment, because all the signs

are that the sun was back to active state."

The sun from an outbreak of geomagnetic storms on earth will affect some of the grid, global

positioning systems use satellites and other equipment, but also will lead to fly over the

polar regions of the flights are over to change course. He said: "normally would not cause

greater destruction, threat within the scope of the controllable. If by jet to Asia, from the

United States over the arctic, you'll find ten flights. Every day is like this. When massive

radiation storm, some airlines will because of safety concerns to change course, away from the

flight to ensure flight polar regions keep communications smooth. The company will also

operating satellites close attention, because geomagnetic storms will in various ways to

interfere with satellite and received signal receiver." NASA says, in 8 evening and 9, polar

regions may also observed aurora borealis and aboard.


0

Solar Flare Activity March 05 2012

Major X Class Solar Flare
A long duration and major X1.1 solar flare peaked at 04:09 UTC Monday morning around Sunspot 1429. A strong R3 Level Radio Blackout resulted. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is now seen in the latest STEREO Behind and Lasco images. The expanding plasma cloud is mostly heading towards the north and east, however a small portion looks to be Earth directed. This is the 10th largest solar flare of the current Sunspot Cycle and it also happens to be the 10th X-Class flare as well. Stay Tuned for the latest updates.

Sunday, March 04, 2012

Recent Solar Flare Activity March 04 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  A long duration M2/1N
flare was observed at 04/1052Z from Region 1429 (N18E55). 
Associated with the event was a 750 sfu Tenflare, Type IV Radio
Sweep, and a CME first visible in STEREO B COR 2 Imagery at 04/1210Z
(estimated speed of 840 km/s).  This region is classified as a Dkc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration.  Further
analysis of the CME will be necessary as imagery becomes available,
however there appears to be a partial Earth-directed component.  A
glancing blow is possible from this event.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a slight chance for an X-class flare
from Region 1429.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions with an
isolated major storm period observed at high latitudes between
04/0900 - 1200Z.  Activity was due to extended periods of the
negative Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field near -5
nT.   The solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was relatively
steady near 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (05 March).  Activity levels
are expected to increase on day 2 (06 March) due to a possible
glancing blow from todays CME associated with the M2/1N flare. 
Unsettled to active conditions are expected with isolated minor
storm periods possible.  Conditions are expected to settle down to
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions by day 3 (07 March) as the
effects of the CME wane.  There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429 for the forecast period.

III.  Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

Long Duration M-Class Flare + CME
A long duration M2.0 Solar Flare peaked this morning at 10:45 UTC. The latest blast was again centered around Sunspot 1429 located in the northeast quadrant. A 46 minute long 10cm Radio Burst, also known as a TenFlare, was recorded as well and measured 750 pfu. A type IV Sweep Frequency Event resulted. Sometimes Long Duration flares can produce bright Coronal Mass Ejections. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information. UPDATE: The latest Solar Flare did generate a Coronal Mass Ejection. The blast is most likely directed to the east, but a portion of the cloud may be Earth directed. 



Sunspot 1429 now a BGD group
A large and active Sunspot rotated into view off the northeast limb. This sunspot group was numbered 1429 on Saturday, and was responsible for several C-Class flares and now two moderate solar flares. Sunspot 1429 continues to expand and now has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration, the most powerful kind of classification. There will be an increasing chance for an X-Class event.


Solar Update
Solar activity continues at moderate levels. A long duration M2.0 Solar Flare peaked at 10:45 UTC this morning and was centered around large Sunspot 1429. This region continues to rotate into a more geo effective position, and the chances for Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections will increase. There will remain a chance for further M-Class flares on Sunday and a smaller risk of an isolated X-Class flare. Another sunspot, now numbered 1430, is forming just to the west of 1429. Elsewhere, new Sunspot 1428 in the southern hemisphere is currently stable.