Thursday, February 23, 2012

Latest Forecast of Solar Storms, Flare Activity

Updated Feb 23 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1422 (N15W52)
showed decay in its trailing spots.  A new region appeared on the NE
limb and was numbered Region 1423 (N18E70).  Two CMEs were observed
overnight; the first off the North limb, observed in LASCO C2
imagery beginning at approximately 23/0148Z and the second beginning
at 23/0824Z off the NW limb.  The second CME was associated with a
filament eruption on the NW limb first seen in SDO/AIA 193 imagery
at 23/0746Z.  None of the CMEs are expected to be geoeffective.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for a C-class activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft decreased from approximately 530 km/s to 440 km/s while
the Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field did not vary
much beyond +/- 4 nT.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet conditions for the forecast
period (24 - 26 February).