Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low due to a trio of C7 x-ray events. Regions 1416 (S19W02) and 1417 (N16E44) each produced C7 events at 10/2352Z and 11/1854Z respectively. The third C7 event was observed at 11/1004Z from behind the east limb near N25. The activity behind the NE limb portends the return of old Region 1402 (N26, L=218). Region 1416 continued its growth phase, both in area and spot count, and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. At about 10/1900Z, a 27 degree long segmented filament erupted in the NE quadrant of the disk. The ENE to WSW oriented filament was centered at N29E14. An associated CME was observed lifting of the NE limb, first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 10/2012Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (12 - 14 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar wind speeds decreased steadily through the period from 450 km/s to about 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 3 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12 - 13 February) due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Late on day two and through day three (14 February), field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels, with high latitude minor storm intervals. This increase in activity is due to anticipated effects from the 10 February CME.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb Class M 30/50/50 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Feb 112 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 006/008-011/012-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/35/40 Minor storm 05/15/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/40/50 Minor storm 15/20/30 Major-severe storm 01/05/10
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