A strong solar flare reaching M5.7 was detected around Sunspot 1476 and peaked at 04:18 UTC Thursday morning. This event also generated a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare). Most of the flare events thus far have not produced any large Coronal Mass Ejections. When watching the latest STEREO Ahead COR2 movie, it does not appear that a substantial CME was produced. Continue to monitor the Solar X-Ray Flux for further activity.
Solar Update
Sunspot 1476 continues to produce moderate solar flares including a short duration M5.7 event at 04:18 UTC Thursday morning. When watching the latest STEREO Ahead COR2 movie, it does not appear that a substantial CME was produced. This will region will continue to be a threat for an X-Class event over the next 24-48 hours. Sunspot 1477 located in the southeast quadrant is a Beta sunspot group and magnetically simple. Sunspot 1471 located in the southwest quadrant is now ready to rotate onto the western limb and out of direct Earth view.
Updated May 10 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24
hours with multiple M-class solar flares observed. Region 1476
(N12E08) was responsible for almost all of the activity with 3
M-class events observed, the largest being a M5/2b event at
10/0418Z. Associated with these events, were discrete frequency
radio bursts, Tenflares, and even a Type IV radio sweep. Region 1476
has shown mixed growth and shear effects across the polarities as it
continues to evolve. A weak Earth directed CME was observed in
STEREO COR2 A and B imagery early in the period. Analysis and
current models show this CME joining the current coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). Region 1477 (S22E47) was split into two
regions today as SDO magnetogram data indicated the leader and
follower sunspot groups were actually two magnetic bipoles. Leader
group is Region 1477 and follower group is now Region 1478 (S24E55).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class events for the next
three days (11 - 13 May) as Region 1476 continues to grow and
evolve.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours with an isolated minor storm period observed at high
latitudes. Solar wind measurements, as observed by the ACE
spacecraft, showed a continued increase in solar wind speeds to
around 620 km/s, a drop off in solar wind density, and the total IMF
began to stabilize around 5 nT. These characteristics are indicative
of a CH HSS. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods for the next three days (11 - 13 May). The increased
activity is due to both the continued CH HSS effects and three weak,
slow moving CMEs intertwined within.