Thursday, September 06, 2012

latest solar flare activity sept 6 2012

A moderate solar flare reaching M1.6 was detected at 04:13 UTC around Sunspot 1560. The event was not long in duration and a large Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is not expected.

Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (06 -
08 September) with a chance for active levels on day 1 due to
possible weak coronal hole high-speed stream effects.

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    25/25/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 133
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep  130/130/125
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  021/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  008/010-007/008-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           05/01/01