Solar Report for October 13, 2012.
- The Solar Flux for today is 125.
- Although currently stable, Sunspot 1589 is now listed as having a Beta-Gamma-Delta Magnetic configuration. Depending on the right conditions within the group, a moderat
- The Solar Flux for today is 125.
- Although currently stable, Sunspot 1589 is now listed as having a Beta-Gamma-Delta Magnetic configuration. Depending on the right conditions within the group, a moderat
e to strong solar flare is possible.
(Attached image by SDO shows magnetic looping above a potential new region located just off the southeast limb.)
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1589 (N13E22) is
the most magnetically complex spot group on the visible disk with a
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed during the reporting period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for X-class
flares during the forecast period (14-16 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with
major to severe storm periods observed at high latitudes. The
period began with quiet to unsettled conditions through 13/0300Z. A
sustained period of southward Bz to -11 nT for approximately 13
hours resulted in active to minor storm conditions with major to
severe storm periods at high latitudes. At about 13/0650Z, the phi
angle changed from a negative (toward) orientation to a positive
(away) orientation, indicating a solar sector boundary crossing.
This was followed by increases in density, temperature, and solar
wind speed indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance
of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). By 13/1618Z, solar
wind speed increased from approximately 530 km/s to 590 km/s while
the total magnetic field (Bt) decreased to 5 nT as the CH HSS became
geoeffective. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active levels with a chance for
isolated minor storm periods on day 1 (14 October). Mostly
unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (15 October) due to
persistence. By day 3 (16 October), quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected as coronal hole effects wane. On days 2-3, there is a
slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit as Region 1589 rotates into a more geoeffective
position.
(Attached image by SDO shows magnetic looping above a potential new region located just off the southeast limb.)
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1589 (N13E22) is
the most magnetically complex spot group on the visible disk with a
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed during the reporting period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for X-class
flares during the forecast period (14-16 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with
major to severe storm periods observed at high latitudes. The
period began with quiet to unsettled conditions through 13/0300Z. A
sustained period of southward Bz to -11 nT for approximately 13
hours resulted in active to minor storm conditions with major to
severe storm periods at high latitudes. At about 13/0650Z, the phi
angle changed from a negative (toward) orientation to a positive
(away) orientation, indicating a solar sector boundary crossing.
This was followed by increases in density, temperature, and solar
wind speed indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance
of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). By 13/1618Z, solar
wind speed increased from approximately 530 km/s to 590 km/s while
the total magnetic field (Bt) decreased to 5 nT as the CH HSS became
geoeffective. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active levels with a chance for
isolated minor storm periods on day 1 (14 October). Mostly
unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (15 October) due to
persistence. By day 3 (16 October), quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected as coronal hole effects wane. On days 2-3, there is a
slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit as Region 1589 rotates into a more geoeffective
position.
