Monday, October 22, 2012

solar flare activity in 2012 oct 22

Sunspot 1598 is back at it again, this time producing a moderate M5.0 Solar Flare peaking at 18:51 UTC. The flare was responsible for a brief R2 Level Radio Blackout. So far a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is not visible

Updated  Oct 22 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 1598 (S10E60)
produced an M5/1f event at 22/1851Z.  Region 1598 is the most
threatening region on the disk and appears to be a Beta magnetic
class.  However, the proximity of Region 1598 to the East limb has
made the magnetic classification uncertain.  Region 1596 (N07E20) is
also moderately sized and has some magnetic complexity, but only
managed to produce a small C-class event.  The other regions on the
disk either remained stable or decayed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with occasional M-class flares, and a slight chance
for an isolated X-class flare for the next three days (23 - 25 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours.  Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, remained steady throughout
the day at approximately 375 km/s.  The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged from +/-2 nT. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23 - 25 Oct).

III.  Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     05/05/10
PCAF       green