Activity again reached
moderate levels due to a low level M-Flare (M1.2) at 11:17 UTC Monday
morning. Most flare activity, including the M1.2 flare, is being
centered around former region 1967 which is now returning into view off
the east limb. A dark core belonging to the long lasting active region
is now visible in the latest imagery. It appears that 1967 is in an
advanced state of decay and may no longer be a large threat for strong
X-Class solar flares. We will have a better look at the entire region
within the next 24 hours. Elsewhere, sunspot duo 1981-1982 remains
stable as it transits the center of the visible disk. All other regions,
including region 1987, remain quiet. There will continue to be a chance
for an isolated M-Class event with regions 1981-1982 and returning
region 1967 being the likely source.
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 24/1205Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 589 km/s at 24/0550Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 23/2101Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (25 Feb, 27 Feb) and quiet levels on day two (26 Feb). III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb Class M 60/60/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Feb 171 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 157 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 012/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 009/008-006/005-007/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/05/15 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/15/25 Major-severe storm 20/05/25
