Several M-Class Solar Flares
Solar activity picked up in a hurry with the emergence of Sunspot 1613 located in the southern hemisphere. A solar flare reaching M2.0 was detected at 23:28 UTC late monday, followed by an impulsive M6.0 event at 02:04 UTC early Tuesday morning
CME Impact
The ACE Spacecraft detected an interplanetary shock at 22:20 UTC Monday
evening. Almost an hour later, A geomagnetic sudden impulse was detected
by the ground based magnetometer located in Boulder, Colorado (16 nT @
23:16 UTC). This signalled the passage of the Coronal Mass Ejection past
Earth.
The impact has been fairly minor thus far. The Solar Wind is between 400
and 500 km/s and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) is currently pointed North. The Kp index (4) is currently just
below the G1 Geomagnetic Storm threshold. Should the Bz tip south for
long durations, this could help intensify geomagnetic activity at high
latitudes. Skywatchers at very high latitudes should be alert for
Aurora.
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2012 Nov 13 0103 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
WARNING: SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Nov 12 2316 UTC
Deviation: 16 nT
Station: Boulder
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Nov 12 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 12/1022Z from Region 1610 (S22W10). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 362 km/s at 12/0605Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 12/0724Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8.1 nT at 12/1934Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly active with a chance for minor storm levels early on day one (13 Nov) due to the arrival of the CMEs from 09/1524Z and 10/0539Z. Activity is expected to decrease to generally unsettled levels on day 2 (14 Nov) as CME effects subside. On day 3 (15 Nov) conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet levels. III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Nov 144 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 145/145/150 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 118 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 013/015-007/010-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/05 Minor Storm 25/05/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/20/15 Minor Storm 25/30/10 Major-severe storm 05/25/05
