Showing posts with label Activity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Activity. Show all posts

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Solar flare storm activity Forecast Oct 18 - Oct 20 2014

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to a long-duration M1/Sf
flare from Region 2192 (S15E63, Eki/beta-gamma) at 18/0758 UTC.  Region
2192 also produced a multiple mid-level C-class flares throughout the
period and appeared to be increasing in both size and magnetic
complexity as it continues to rotate into full view.  The other regions
on the visible disk were stable.  A filament eruption (approx 8 degree
extent) centered near N15W10 was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery between
18/0740-0938 UTC.  No coronagraph imagery was available at the time of
this writing to determine if a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated
with either the M-flare or the filament eruption occurred.
      
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (18-20 Oct)
with Region 2192 being the likely source.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (18-20 Oct).  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the
next three days (18-20 Oct).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of a nominal solar wind
regime.  Solar wind speeds were steady in the 400-500 km/s range.  IMF
total field values reached 8 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward
component of -7 nT.  The phi angle was variable between negative
(toward) and positive (away) solar sectors throughout the period,
suggesting multiple solar sector boundary crossings (SSBCs).

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels over the
next three days (18-20 Oct) with continued transitions between negative
and positive solar sectors.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated
period of active conditions between 18/0000-0300 UTC due to solar sector
variability.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
the remainder of day one (18 Oct) through day three (20 Oct).

Solar flare storm activity Forecast Oct 18 2014

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Solar flare storm activity Forecast Oct 14 2014

Solar flare storm activity Forecast  Oct 14 2014
24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate. The five spotted groups on the visible
solar disk were stable, including newly numbered Region 2189 (N21E18,
bxo/beta). The only solar activity today resulted from two eruptions
observed well around the SE limb of the visible solar disk. The first
event was an impulsive M1 flare at 14/1837 UTC. This event had an
associated Tenflare (1300 sfu), but no other CME related radio
signatures. Shortly after, a second x-ray enhancement occurred, a long
duration M2 flare which peaked at 14/2121 UTC.  This event had an
associated Tenflare of 180 sfu.

Based on source location around the East limb, no Earth directed CMEs
are expected from these events.

.Forecast...
Based solely on the spotted regions currently on the solar disk, solar
activity is expected to be low for the next three days (15-17 Oct).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three days
(15-17 Oct). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels for the next
three days (15-17 Oct).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions at the ACE spacecraft suggest that the anticipated
near miss of the CME observed leaving the Sun on 10 Oct, actually
produced glancing blow effects to Earth today. At ~14/1000 UTC, Bt
increased along with Phi rotations and a speed increase. Bt peaked at 16
nT so far, and intermittent periods of -Bz have been occurring. Solar
wind speeds peaked at 521 km/s at 14/2253 UTC.

.Forecast...
For the next 24-36hrs, solar wind conditions are expected to reflect the
continued glancing blow passage of the CME observed on 10 Oct. Bt is
expected to slowly decrease. Solar wind speeds are forecast to remain in
the 450 km/s range for the remainder of the period (15-17 Oct). Multiple
solar sector boundary changes are also expected to unsettle the solar
wind conditions for Earth following the CME passage, and through the
period.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels, as the result
of the glancing blow passage of the CME observed leaving the Sun on 10
Oct.

.Forecast...
Quiet to minor storm conditions have been forecast for day one (15 Oct)
as residual CME effects persist. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
forecast for days two and three (16-17 Oct) as the result of waning CME
effects combined with multiple expected solar sector changes.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Solar flare storm activity Forecast june 13 2014

 Solar flare storm activity Forecast june 13 2014
 
Solar activity reached high levels today as Regions 2085 (S20W58,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta), 2087 (S18E43, Dac/beta-gamma-delta), and 2089
(N18E03, Dai/beta) all produced low level M-class flares.  The largest
flare of the period was an M3 flare at 12/2216 UTC from Region 2085. It
was accompanied by Type II (est shock speed 1679 km/s) and Type IV radio
sweeps as well as a 10 cm burst (220 sfu). Region 2087 produced an M2/Sf
at 12/0421 UTC, an M2/1f at 12/1021 UTC, and an M1/Sf at 12/2113 UTC.
Region 2089 produced an M1/Sf flare at 12/2003 UTC.

Slight growth was observed in the intermediate spots of Regions 2080
(S11W64, Dki/beta-gamma-delta), 2087, and 2085.  Slight decay was
observed in the trailing spots of Region 2085.  Region 2089 appeared to
be in a slow growth phase.  The rest of the spotted regions were either
stable or in decay.   Multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed off both east and west limbs throughout the period, however
none appeared to have an Earth-directed component.  SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery was only available until 12/1548 UTC.  Further analysis of
later CMEs will be performed as imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a chance for further X-class flaring (R3-Strong or
greater) for the forecast period (13-15 Jun) due to flare potential from
Regions 2080, 2085, 2087, and 2089.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (13-15 Jun). 
There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor or
greater) for the forecast period as Regions 2080 and 2085 remain in a
well connected location.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed was in decline during the period from a high of 570
km/s at 12/0203 UTC to end of period values near 355 km/s.  Total field
ranged from 2 nT to 5 nT while the Bz component was mostly north ranging
from -2 nT to +4 nT.  Phi angle was mostly positive (away) throughout
the period.

.Forecast...
Two enhancements in solar wind parameters are expected by mid to late on
days 1 and 2 (13-14 Jun) from a potential shock enhancement from a CME
that occurred on 10 Jun and an earlier faint partial halo CME from 09
June.  WSA Enlil modelling predicts arrival times of these CMEs to be
around 13/1200 UTC and 14/1900 UTC respectively.  Solar wind speeds are
expected to begin to diminish on day 3 (15 Jun) as CME effects wane.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
By approximately mid-day on day 1, a possible glancing blow from the 10
Jun CME is expected to cause active conditions with a chance for G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storming.  By day 2 (14 Jun), quiet to active
conditions are expected as CME effects persist along with the expected
arrival of a second CME associated with a C9 flare on 09 Jun by late in
the period.  Unsettled periods are expected to persist early on day 3
(15 Jun) as CME effects diminish, followed by mostly quiet periods.

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Possible Events of 12, 21, 2012


The Hoppis Miyans recognize that we are approaching the end of a cycle and the beginning of a new cycle, in 12, 21, 2012. In all cases, however, the Hopisand Meyans shaman do not think that everything will come to an end. Rather, this is a time of transition from one World Era into another. The message they give concerns our making a choice of how we view the future ahead. Our moving ahead with either resistance or acceptance may determine whether the transition will happen with Horrific changes or gradual peace and tranquility when 12, 21, 2012 happens. The same time line can be found reflected in the prophecies of many other indigenous peoplesvisionaries from earlier times . |Amazingly, there is a cultural/prophetic context for the arising of this Feminine-based planetary change that is underway. The 12, 21, 2012 foretelling foretold of this shift of worldly stewardship into the hands of the Feminine. |We are living today in the cusp of the many cultural predicted end times, the end of a galactic day or time period spanning thousands of years. |The precise Cycle of the Mayan Long Count calendar ends on the winter solstice of 12, 21, 2012 A.D. Following the concepts of cyclic time and (Earth|World|Planet} Age transitions, this is as much about beginnings as the ending. In fact, it was considered by the ancient Mayans to signify the creation of a new (Earth|World|Planet} Age. We are almost at the end of the fifth and final age!|Common expectations concerning the Solstice on 12, 21, 2012 range from spiritual enlightenment to disastrous events, though no single point of factual basis is a tell tale sign. Despite a decisive lack of indicators for Apocalyptic events are in any reliable calendar or mathematical system, that points to an end of 12,21.2012. 

 What is to come in 2012? What is the real concern with solar activity and the magnetic poles? What do we have to fear from our own home world and the star which sustains life on our planet?
The answers to these questions are alarming and devastating. All my deciphering points to a complex and ingenious science. Let me explain. When you, as a scientist, stumble upon results that the present astronomers do not know, you have, without doubt, stumbled upon something terribly important. Everybody will have to admit it, and that is exactly what I have done: I discovered an echo of a long-lost technological terminology; a majestic building with immensely sophisticated keys. Many numbers were based on the sunspot cycle, which they had discovered. A theory that is irrefutably correct and not known by our physicists! It cannot be more alarming! 

 

 

 

Monday, November 19, 2012

Current Solar Flare Activity on 12/21/2012

12 21 2012, or December 21 2012 is often a date associated with the finish with the world. This date, 12 21 2012, arrives mostly from the extended count in the Mayan calendar. The Mayans for reasons unidentified were quite innovative within the study of astronomy. Their calendar is really many calendars in one. The calendar referred to as the extended count is the one which notes 12 21 2012 since the conclude in the earth as we realize it.The reason for this day is quite problematic. On December 21, 2012 or 12 21 2012, for the 1st time in 26000 a long time, the sun will conjunct the milky way, along with the elliptical plane

The Mayan Calendar has left us with a profound mystery. Academia, science and the clergy have labored long over the question as to why the calendar was extrapolated into the 21st century and why, on December 21st, 2012, it abruptly ends?


Eschatology could be the research in the stop of life on earth. There are several speculations just before 12 21 2012. One of many most recent instances for such speculation was referred to as Y2K. Though Y2K primarily was regarding computer systems, some noticed it like an indication from the end occasions. I think that a lot of folks experience that 2012 could be the conclude for any range of good reasons. Very first of all, guilt could play a part within this. Surely the human race has considerably to be ashamed of. Furthermore, many weather conditions changes and adjustments to our environment have taken spot. We've got noticed what alterations in local weather can do to our civilization in storms such as Katrina. Moreover to all of this, considerably of the world is facing horrible financial conditions

As the predicted date of the end of the world, that is the 12 21 2012 Polar Shift, draws nearer, the more we need to focus our attention on the innumerable things that could possibly happen on planet Earth. Theorists and experts alike have in fact, enumerated a number of possibilities that can take place come year 2012. Although there is no scientific proof to confirm that all such predictions will surely come true, there are countless of predictions about the possibilities that can happen in the envisaged Doomsday of 2012. Here are just a few of these possibilities that you should know regarding the December 12, 2012 Polar Shift so that you can be prepared as to what can possibly occur during such time:
1. Asteroid, Meteor And Comet
First and foremost, experts and theorists predict the possibility of experiencing an orbit which may culminate by colliding with our planet earth in the year 2012. While this may be the most predictable catastrophe come 2012, it will still be good to not doubt it and instead, equip ourselves with the appropriate survival kit to make sure that we stay alive even if the predicted phenomenon finally takes place.
2. Coronal Mass Ejection From The Sun
For those who may not know it, the CME or Coronal Mass Ejection which came from the sun and caused the year 1859's solar storm, is actually true. Such event took place during the month of September of 1859 bringing about a failure in the telegraph systems from corner to corner of North America as well as Europe. The same event is in fact, predicted to occur in the year 2012 when the end of the world is envisaged to take place. What is more, it is also forecast that there are going to be huge storms bringing such massive power blackouts at the same time, the wreckage of satellites.
3. Magnetic Pole Shift
Polar reversals such as the 12 21 2012 Polar Shift are predicted to be occurring at a time gap of 400,000 years. In fact, the most current polar shift that occurred happened about 730,000 years ago and not too many people even know about it. You see, even our scientists still lack the knowledge about polar reversals, in the same manner that they are not so sure until now, about how such magnetic fields are generated. Although they are able to predict that geomagnetic reversals such as the 12 21 2012 Polar Shift, would take about hundreds and hundreds of years to take place and that they actually cause no harm at all. But then this has been disputed as it was found out that polar shifts can actually take place in just a snap of the fingers, yes, as in anytime.
4. Explosion From The Black Hole
Another possibility that is expected to take place after a polar shift in planet Earth is the possible danger of a Galactic core explosion, or what is simply an explosion from the Black Hole at the center or middle of our galaxy. It is expected that such incident will bring about some cosmic ray super waves that would be gestured by a burst of gamma rays. These bursts are actually believed to cause the massively destructive tsunamis in our planet.

 There are many theories regarding just what will transpire on 12 21 2012. Several feel that solar flare activity will improve significantly and that a huge solar flare will strike the earth causing destruction. Other theories incorporate the earth being struck by a mystery planet or asteroid known as planet x. Nonetheless other speculations say that the earths wobble on its axis, will trigger drastic modifications while in the earths weather and environment creating mass destruction by components this kind of as tidal waves. Even though there are many diverse theories,several authorities agree that "something" will occur in 2012.Some people imagine that 2012 will mark the finish of everyday living on our planet, even though other people do not. Some see it as being a time of drastic change and survival for those that transform spiritually. So called specialists link the Mayan calendar with other prophesies these as Nostradamus, as well as the end occasions explained while in the Bible inside the guide of Revelations. Nevertheless there is certainly little or no if any connection to that actual day in both of these resources.
.
All of this could look just like the occasions preceding the end times.Considering that considerably with the info on 12 21 2012 is speculation, it is critical to have your data from a trustworthy resource. With this way you may make intelligent and educated decisions on what you feel. There are numerous authorities that sense 12 21 2012 is often a time for survival and good change. Let us hope that's true. 2012 Specifics

Monday, November 12, 2012

Solar Flares Solar activity 11 12 2012

Several M-Class Solar Flares Solar activity picked up in a hurry with the emergence of Sunspot 1613 located in the southern hemisphere. A solar flare reaching M2.0 was detected at 23:28 UTC late monday, followed by an impulsive M6.0 event at 02:04 UTC early Tuesday morning

CME Impact
The ACE Spacecraft detected an interplanetary shock at 22:20 UTC Monday evening. Almost an hour later, A geomagnetic sudden impulse was detected by the ground based magnetometer located in Boulder, Colorado (16 nT @ 23:16 UTC). This signalled the passage of the Coronal Mass Ejection past Earth.
The impact has been fairly minor thus far. The Solar Wind is between 400 and 500 km/s and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is currently pointed North. The Kp index (4) is currently just below the G1 Geomagnetic Storm threshold. Should the Bz tip south for long durations, this could help intensify geomagnetic activity at high latitudes. Skywatchers at very high latitudes should be alert for Aurora.
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2012 Nov 13 0103 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
WARNING: SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Nov 12 2316 UTC
Deviation: 16 nT
Station: Boulder


Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Nov 12 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2012


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
12/1022Z from Region 1610 (S22W10). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 362 km/s at
12/0605Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 12/0724Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8.1 nT at 12/1934Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at mostly active with a chance for minor storm levels early on day
one (13 Nov) due to the arrival of the CMEs from 09/1524Z and 10/0539Z.
Activity is expected to decrease to generally unsettled levels on day 2
(14 Nov) as CME effects subside. On day 3 (15 Nov) conditions are
expected to return to mostly quiet levels.


III.  Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 144
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 145/145/150
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 118


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  013/015-007/010-006/005


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/05
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           25/30/10
Major-severe storm    05/25/05
Solar Flares Solar activity 11 12 2012

Monday, October 22, 2012

solar flare activity in 2012 oct 22

Sunspot 1598 is back at it again, this time producing a moderate M5.0 Solar Flare peaking at 18:51 UTC. The flare was responsible for a brief R2 Level Radio Blackout. So far a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is not visible


Updated  Oct 22 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 1598 (S10E60)
produced an M5/1f event at 22/1851Z.  Region 1598 is the most
threatening region on the disk and appears to be a Beta magnetic
class.  However, the proximity of Region 1598 to the East limb has
made the magnetic classification uncertain.  Region 1596 (N07E20) is
also moderately sized and has some magnetic complexity, but only
managed to produce a small C-class event.  The other regions on the
disk either remained stable or decayed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with occasional M-class flares, and a slight chance
for an isolated X-class flare for the next three days (23 - 25 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours.  Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, remained steady throughout
the day at approximately 375 km/s.  The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged from +/-2 nT. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23 - 25 Oct).

III.  Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     05/05/10
PCAF       green

Wednesday, August 01, 2012

latest solar flare activity august 1 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1528 (N17W56), 1532
(S19W14), 1535 (N18E37), 1536 (S22W01), and 1538 (S22E54) all
produced low level C-class flares.  Region 1536 is the most
magnetically complex group on the visible disk with a weak
Beta-gamma configuration.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed during the reporting period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a chance for M-class flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible on day 1 (02 August) due to effects from the 28 July CME. 
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (03 August). 
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (04 August).

Saturday, May 19, 2012

SOLAR FLARE STORM Activity May 19 2012

Updated 5/19/2012
Solar Update
Solar activity has been low with only low level C-Class activity detected around mostly departing region 1476 off the western limb. All other sunspot regions are currently stable. New sunspot 1486 was numbered on Friday.



Updated May 18 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest flare
was a C3 at 18/0823Z from old Region 1476 (N10, L=180), which
rotated off the disk.  A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA
304 imagery beginning at 18/0510Z near Region 1482 (N15W17).  An
associated CME was observed in STEREO A COR 2 imagery beginning at
18/0709Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of approximately 482
km/s.  The majority of the ejecta appeared to be slightly north of
the ecliptic plane, however a glancing blow is likely.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare all three days
(19 - 21 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 100 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at
17/0200Z, reached a maximum of 20.4 pfu at 17/0230Z and ended at
17/1725Z.  The greater than 10 MeV proton event is currently
hovering close to the 10 pfu threshold (S1).

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods on day 1 (19 May) due to a possible shock arrival from the
17 May CME.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (20
May).  Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (21 May). 
There is a slight chance for shock enhancement of the greater than
10 MeV protons above 10 pfu on day 1.

Sunday, May 13, 2012

SOLAR FLARE STORM Activity May 13 2012

Updated 5/13/2012 @ 12:30 UTC
Solar Update
Solar activity is currently low with only C-Class flares detected within the past 24 hours. The largest of these flares was a C7.0 at 08:14 UTC Sunday morning. Sunspot 1476 continues to decay and the threat for strong solar flares will decline because of this. All other regions are currently stable.

 The Sun Captured Locally
Below is a great image of the Sun and AR1476 taken by a local Sun photographer named Raymond Lalonde. The photo was taken yesterday from here in Eastern Ontario, Canada.




Updated May 13 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1476 (N09W33) continues to be the most dominant region
on the disk with an area of 840 millionths and is magnetically
classified as beta-gamma-delta. However, Region 1476 is currently in
a decay phase and only producing C-class x-ray events. Region 1479
(N15E40) was split into two sunspot groups after magnetogram
analysis, with the leader group retaining  the Region 1479 number,
and the trailer group being numbered Region 1482 (N14E51). Three new
regions were also numbered today, Region 1481 (S10E61), Region 1483
(S27E51) and Region 1484 (N10E75).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(14 - 16 May) as Region 1476 continues to rotate towards the west
limb of the solar disk.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated periods at minor storm levels observed at high latitudes.
Measurements, by the ACE spacecraft, indicate the waning effects of
the latest coronal hole high speed stream, as solar wind speeds
decreased from 600 km/s to around 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods on day one (14 May), as a CME, observed leaving the solar
disk on 12 May, is forecasted to become geoeffective. Most of the
mass of this CME event is expected to miss Earth, thus quiet to
unsettled levels with a chance of active levels, are also expected
on day two (15 May). As effects of the CME wane, a return to quiet
to unsettled levels is expected on day three (16 May).

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Todays Solar Flare Activity April 24 2012 Causing Geomagnetic Storm Aurora

C-Class Flare and CME
A couple of new sunspots are rotating into view off the eastern limb. One of these regions located off the northeast limb produced a C3.7 Solar Flare at 07:45 UTC this morning and was associated with a Type II Sweep Frequency Event and CME. Due to the spots location, the plasma cloud should be directed mostly towards the east.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Apr 24 0748 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1029 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 active regions on the disk, with 5
regions having sunspots. The spotted regions on the disk all
remained rather quiet and stable throughout the period. However,
around plage Region 1461 (N10W19), two C-class events were observed
today with associated Earth directed CMEs.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class x-ray events for the next three
days (24 - 26 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the
past 24 hours. Observations made by the ACE spacecraft, around
23/0200Z, indicated the arrival of a CME that lifted off the solar
disk on 19 April. Solar wind velocities increased from 350 - 400
km/s with the total IMF reaching around 18 nT. The Boulder
magnetometer measured a 31 nT sudden impulse at 23/0325Z in
conjunction with the CME arrival here at Earth. From then on, active
to minor storm levels were observed due to multiple periods of
sustained negative Bz.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with a slight chance for a
minor storm on day 1 (24 April) as effects from the CME wane and a
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moves in. Quiet to active
levels are expected on day two (25 April) as the effects of the CH
HSS continue. An increase to quiet to minor storm levels are
expected on day three (26 April) as the two CMEs, observed earlier
in the period, are expected to become geoeffective.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Report of latest solar flare activity April 20 2012

Despite the amount of large Sunspots on the Earth facing side of the Sun, solar activity has been fairly low over the past 24 hours. None of the current visible sunspots are magnetically complex (at this time). There will remain the chance for an isolated M-Class event. The sunspot totals are also helping to increase the daily Solar Flux readings. The solar flux ended near 140 on Thursday.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Apr 19 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C7 x-ray flare at 19/1126Z associated with Types II and IV
radio sweeps and a non-Earth-directed CME. This event may have
originated in old Region 1455 (N05, L=206), now about two days
beyond the west limb. Regions 1460 (N16W01) and 1463 (S26W49) each
produced a low-level C-class flare. Region 1460 showed spot growth
in its intermediate portion. Region 1462 (S24W31) produced a C1
flare at 19/1515Z associated with a CME that may have had an
Earthward component. Further analysis is required to determine if
the CME is likely to be geoeffective. New Region 1464 (N23E01,
Bxo-Beta) was numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 3 (20 - 22 April) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (20 April) with
a chance for brief active levels due to a recurrent solar sector
boundary crossing. Quiet levels are expected during days 2- 3 (21 -
22 April).

Monday, April 16, 2012

Latest solar flare report April 16 2012

Latest Solar Flare Report April 16 2012


The returning region off the northeast limb looks to be providing us with some Solar Fireworks. A massive eruption that registered as an M1.7 event, peaked at 17:45 UTC on Monday afternoon. This will most likely launch a blob of plasma into space. Due to the location of this event, the cloud will probably be directed away from Earth.

The active region off the northeast limb is now rotating into view and initially appeared to be spotless. Currently at 13:45 UTC a Sunspot is just now coming into view. We will get a better look at this region as the day progresses.

Sunspot 1455 which is turning closer to the western limb with every passing hour, did form some new spots on Sunday. This region may produce C-Class flares. Sunspot cluster 1459 in the southeast quadrant covers a large area but has yet to produce a noteworthy flare. There will remain a small risk for an M-Class event.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
An M1 flare was observed from a region around the east limb at
16/1745Z. Region 1459 (S15E56) continued to grow and is now
considered an Fhi-beta type group. A filament erupted at
approximately 16/1300Z near S43E33. The associated CME is not
expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days
(17-19 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (17-19 April).

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Report of Solar flare Activity march 2012

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Mar 22 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1440 (S25W38) produced
todays only C-class flare at 22/1750Z.  This region appears to be
decaying and currently shows a beta-gamma configuration. Three new
sunspot groups were numbered today: Region 1441 (S27W56), Region
1442 (N13E49) and Region 1443 (N16E62). All of these regions were
small, quiet, and  stable.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 1440.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled period
from 22/1800Z to 22/2100Z.  Solar wind data appeared to indicate a
solar sector boundary crossing at about 22/1930Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23-25 March).

Tuesday, March 06, 2012

Solar and Geophysical Activity Report of 06 Mar 2012

Updated Mar 06 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. There were five M-class x-ray
events during the past 24 hours, all from Region 1429 (N17E31). The
largest event was an M2/1n 06/1241Z. None of these events was
associated with a CME that would be expected to be geoeffective.
Region 1429 dominates the disk in area (about 1010 millionths), and
exhibited growth during the period. The trailer portion showed the
most development but has separated a bit from the main cluster of
spots. The central portion is magnetically complex and shows
multiple deltas as well as strong shear along a pair of east-west
polarity inversion lines. Region 1428 (S17E08) also showed some
growth during the period (area of 280 millionths) but is simple
magnetically and was relatively quiet.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Additional M-class events from Region 1429 are likely.
There is also a chance for a major flare and/or proton producing
event from Region 1429 during the next three days (07-09 March).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. ACE solar wind
measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field showed steady
strengthening during the period and there were numerous intervals of
weakly southward Bz. The greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement
continued throughout the period and reached a peak value of 4 PFU at
06/1335Z. The flux appeared to be on a slow declining trend at the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods during the next 24 hours (07 March). The increase in
activity is expected due to combined effects from a co-rotating
interaction region with the CME that occurred on 04 March
(associated with the M2 x-ray event). Later in the day additional
effects are expected due to a glancing blow from the full halo CME
associated with the X1 x-ray event that occurred on 05 March.
Predominantly unsettled levels with a chance for active periods are
expected for the second day (08 March) as effects from the
anticipated disturbance should diminish. Predominantly quiet levels
are expected for the third day (09 March).

III.  Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Mar 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  An X1/2b flare occurred
at 05/0409Z from Region 1429 (N17E41).  This flare was associated
with a full halo CME with a LASCO C3 plane of sky speed of about
1340 km/sec.  Region 1429 has a beta-delta magnetic class with an
area of approximately 810 millionths, and appears to be growing. The
region produced additional M-class flares during the period.  New
Region 1431 (S27W36) was numbered today and is a small B-type
sunspot group.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, but there is a chance for additional major flare activity
and/or a greater than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled with the
exception of some active to minor storm periods at high latitudes. A
greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement began at about 05/0030Z.
Flux levels remained elevated throughout the day and reached a peak
of 3.9 pfu at 05/1630Z. The initial increase was associated with the
long duration M2 flare of 04 March, but additional particles were
also contributed by todays X1/CME event. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for day 1 (06 Mar) due to
combined effects from the M4/CME event observed on 04 March and a
favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream.  Active
conditions with a chance for minor storm periods are forecast for
the second day (07 Mar) due to a expected glancing blow from todays
X1/full halo CME.  Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for
the third day (08 Mar).

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

Monday, March 05, 2012

The strongest solar storms outbreak in five years - Autos

NASA's solar dynamics observation satellite measurements to five years of the most violent

solar radiation outbreak, arrived in earth can cause moderate geomagnetic storms, influence on

earth satellite communication and power supplies. According to the observation of solar

dynamics observation satellite, aside from a small radiation storm outside, the sun eruption

coupled with a flare and a halo material eruption.

The national weather service space weather prediction center project coordinator Cardiff, bill

mourinho tower said: "this time the outbreak started very dramatic." He pointed out that

medium solar flare in 6 at 1am edt 41 points (the GMT at 5 a.m. 41 points) peak. "We first

observed flare scale doesn't big, in the ensuing eruption process, we observed high-energy

particle radiation and large-scale halo material eruption. Can you observed out from the sun

all the material, the surface is very spectacular sight."

The sun dynamics observation satellite launched in 2010, filming the sun outbreaks of high-

definition pictures and video. According to the observation, the sun eruption in visually

spectacular, because of the earth, not positive influence on the earth can be very small. NASA

said in a statement: "rising particle formation huge mushroom, then fell back to the sun to

the surface, seems covered nearly half of the sun to the surface."

Randolph points out, intentions space weather analysts are eyeing the sun eruption, to

determine whether it leads to the sun and earth happened between magnetic field collide. Sun

in about 150 million km distance to the left. He said in an interview with the French media:

"part of our job is to monitor the sun and determine whether an outbreak of substance is

flying to the earth, because the material basically is jet with gas and magnetic. In a day or

two, we will see time some of the substance in the sun injection effect, form the earth. We do

not believe that geomagnetic storms this will be a very severe geomagnetic storms, but

strength can still reach the medium level."

Space weather prediction center, said the sun eruption triggered in 8 small to medium-sized

geomagnetic storms, from about the GMT 18 PM. Any geomagnetic storms activities will end in 24

hours. The national weather service said: "the sun radiation during the storm there are lots

of high-energy protons, this type of activity since since December 2006 was the first

observed."

A total of 12 satellite and spacecraft to the moon, NASA surveillance sunlight layer survey of

the instrument to be able to carry the orbiter to radiation that can be measured and analyzed

the influence of. Radiation effects cosmic ray telescope (CRaTER) project chief researcher Hal

orchid spencer said: "CRaTER task two years ago, this is starting to see the most important

event. This is an exciting moment. Ironically, in planning this task, we originally thought

should be in the sun, because acuteness activity peaks launch the solar particles activities

usually in this period. In fact, we in the sun, and the sun tiny period launch activities will

take a long time to revive. This is an interesting and important moment, because all the signs

are that the sun was back to active state."

The sun from an outbreak of geomagnetic storms on earth will affect some of the grid, global

positioning systems use satellites and other equipment, but also will lead to fly over the

polar regions of the flights are over to change course. He said: "normally would not cause

greater destruction, threat within the scope of the controllable. If by jet to Asia, from the

United States over the arctic, you'll find ten flights. Every day is like this. When massive

radiation storm, some airlines will because of safety concerns to change course, away from the

flight to ensure flight polar regions keep communications smooth. The company will also

operating satellites close attention, because geomagnetic storms will in various ways to

interfere with satellite and received signal receiver." NASA says, in 8 evening and 9, polar

regions may also observed aurora borealis and aboard.


0

Solar Flare Activity March 05 2012

Major X Class Solar Flare
A long duration and major X1.1 solar flare peaked at 04:09 UTC Monday morning around Sunspot 1429. A strong R3 Level Radio Blackout resulted. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is now seen in the latest STEREO Behind and Lasco images. The expanding plasma cloud is mostly heading towards the north and east, however a small portion looks to be Earth directed. This is the 10th largest solar flare of the current Sunspot Cycle and it also happens to be the 10th X-Class flare as well. Stay Tuned for the latest updates.

Sunday, March 04, 2012

Recent Solar Flare Activity March 04 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  A long duration M2/1N
flare was observed at 04/1052Z from Region 1429 (N18E55). 
Associated with the event was a 750 sfu Tenflare, Type IV Radio
Sweep, and a CME first visible in STEREO B COR 2 Imagery at 04/1210Z
(estimated speed of 840 km/s).  This region is classified as a Dkc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration.  Further
analysis of the CME will be necessary as imagery becomes available,
however there appears to be a partial Earth-directed component.  A
glancing blow is possible from this event.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a slight chance for an X-class flare
from Region 1429.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions with an
isolated major storm period observed at high latitudes between
04/0900 - 1200Z.  Activity was due to extended periods of the
negative Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field near -5
nT.   The solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was relatively
steady near 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (05 March).  Activity levels
are expected to increase on day 2 (06 March) due to a possible
glancing blow from todays CME associated with the M2/1N flare. 
Unsettled to active conditions are expected with isolated minor
storm periods possible.  Conditions are expected to settle down to
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions by day 3 (07 March) as the
effects of the CME wane.  There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429 for the forecast period.

III.  Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

Long Duration M-Class Flare + CME
A long duration M2.0 Solar Flare peaked this morning at 10:45 UTC. The latest blast was again centered around Sunspot 1429 located in the northeast quadrant. A 46 minute long 10cm Radio Burst, also known as a TenFlare, was recorded as well and measured 750 pfu. A type IV Sweep Frequency Event resulted. Sometimes Long Duration flares can produce bright Coronal Mass Ejections. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information. UPDATE: The latest Solar Flare did generate a Coronal Mass Ejection. The blast is most likely directed to the east, but a portion of the cloud may be Earth directed. 



Sunspot 1429 now a BGD group
A large and active Sunspot rotated into view off the northeast limb. This sunspot group was numbered 1429 on Saturday, and was responsible for several C-Class flares and now two moderate solar flares. Sunspot 1429 continues to expand and now has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration, the most powerful kind of classification. There will be an increasing chance for an X-Class event.


Solar Update
Solar activity continues at moderate levels. A long duration M2.0 Solar Flare peaked at 10:45 UTC this morning and was centered around large Sunspot 1429. This region continues to rotate into a more geo effective position, and the chances for Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections will increase. There will remain a chance for further M-Class flares on Sunday and a smaller risk of an isolated X-Class flare. Another sunspot, now numbered 1430, is forming just to the west of 1429. Elsewhere, new Sunspot 1428 in the southern hemisphere is currently stable.