Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast march 2015

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. There were several C-class/Sf
flares observed, many of which originated from an unnumbered region on
the southeast limb and most from Region 2305. Region 2305 (S08E19,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to grow in area, maintained an increased
magnetic complexity, and produced the largest flare of the period, a
C8/1n flare at 25/0446 UTC. No Earth directed CMEs were observed with
available imagery and observation data.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for an
M-class (R1-Minor) flare for the forecast period (26-28 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was once
again at high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit returned to near background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to remain at high levels through day three (26-28 Mar). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near
background conditions for days one through three (26-28 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft reflected the continued
influence of a positive polarity high speed solar wind stream.  Wind
speed hovered between 580 and 500 km/s. Bt was at or below 7 nT while
Bz remained at or above -5 nT.  Phi was mostly positive.

.Forecast...
The high speed wind stream is expected to gradually decrease through
days one and two (26-27 Mar). A solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) to
a negative Phi orientation is forecast late on day two. A recurrent
negative polarity solar wind structure is expected to become
geoeffective, with velocities near 700 km/s expected for day three (28
Mar).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels in response to
the continued influence of the positive polarity high speed solar wind
stream.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to unsettled
levels through day one (26 Mar).  Unsettled to active conditions are
expected on day two (27 Mar) with the SSBC. Day three (28 Mar) is
forecast to see activity as high as a minor storm due to the onset of
the recurrent negative polarity high speed stream.

Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast Oct 23 2014

Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2014


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/0950Z from Region 2192 (S14W06). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25
Oct, 26 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
503 km/s at 22/2349Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1717Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6898 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (24 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one through three (24-26 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    45/45/45
Proton     35/40/45
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 227
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 230/230/230
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 138

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  012/015-009/010-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/30/25

Oct 23 2014, Current Solar Flare Activity, current solar flares, solar wind activity, Latest Solar Flare Activity, solar flare activity, solar activity 2014, 2014, oct 2014

Good morning. Here is an updated look at the visible solar disk, along with active region (AR) 2192 on Thursday. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was high. AR 2192 was responsible for a strong X1.6 solar flare on Wednesday peaking at 14:28 UTC. Unfortunately for sky watchers, the latest event again failed to produce a coronal mass ejection (CME). The active region also produced a few M-Flares, including an M1.1 at 09:50 UTC Thursday morning. AR 2192 expanded to a size of 2700 millionths which puts it on par, at least in terms of total area coverage with legendary Cycle 23 sunspot 486 from October 2003. AR 2192 is now in a near perfect geoeffective position for Earth directed eruptions. The cluster still maintains a complex Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and could produce additional moderate to strong solar flares. Elsewhere, a region located near the southeast limb produced an M1.4 flare at 15:57 UTC Wednesday, along with a handful of C-Flares. All other visible regions are currently stable.

Current Solar Flare Activity oct 15 2013

Updated 10/16/2013 @ 00:05 UTC
Impulsive M-Flare
Sunspot 1865 produced an impulsive M1.3 solar flare at 23:36 UTC Tuesday evening. Impulsive flares are not generally known to produce large coronal mass ejections, however I will provide further updates if necessary. Continue to monitor this region for further flare activity. Image below by SDO using the 094 angstroms channel.

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1865
(S21W21,Dao/beta-gamma-delta) produced M1 flares at 15/0838 UTC and
15/2336 UTC. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) subsequently
occurred from the 15/0838 UTC flare. The event appeared narrow and off
plane from an earthward trajectory. The filament related CME from around
15/00 UTC was also determined unlikely to be a geoeffective transient.
Region 1865 maintained an east/west inversion line running through the
adjoined leader spots as well as a beta-gamma-delta configuration.
Region 1861 (S10W45, Dho/beta) showed slight growth in its intermediate
spots and was responsible for multiple C-class flares. A new region
(1872) was numbered near S15E67, and appeared to be  magnetically simple
and inactive.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class (R1-R2
Minor to Moderate) flare for the forecast period.  The most likely
regions for M-class flare activity continue to be Regions 1861 and 1865.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (16-18 Oct). 
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to indicate the influence of a coronal
hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Speed ranged from 460 to 575 km/s
during the period. IMF total field decreased from a high around 12 nT
early in the period to lows of around 2 nT during the latter half of the
period. Intermittent incidences of negative Bz occurred throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind speed and IMF variability are expected to persist
for the next three days (16-18 Oct) from combined effects of residual CH
HSS and the anticipated arrival of the CME from 13 Oct late on day one
(16 Oct).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS and
possible weak CME effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for
day one (16 Oct) due to residual CH HSS conditions early before the
anticipated arrival of the weak CME from 13 October late on day one.
Quiet to active conditions are expected to persist on day 2 (17
Oct).  By day three (18 Oct), conditions are expected to decrease to
mostly quiet levels with unsettled periods as CH HSS and CME effects
wane.

Solar Active Regions and Activity 17 May 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
17/0857Z from Region 1748 (N12E23). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels with a chance for X-class flares on days one,
two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).



IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
431 km/s at 17/0120Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1927Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2126Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 41 pfu at
17/1720Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 203 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 May), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (19 May) and quiet to active levels on day three
(20 May). Protons are expected to continue above threshold levels on
days 1-3 (18-20 May).


III.  Event probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    50/50/50
Proton     99/95/90
PCAF       red

Solar flare Activity Solar Update CME Update 12 May 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/2032Z from a region around the east limb. There are currently 10
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May,
15 May).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 435 km/s at
11/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 456 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 May), quiet levels on
day two (14 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 May).


III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

Updated 05/13/2013 @ 02:10 UTC
X-Class Solar Flare
A major X-Class Solar Flare peaking at X1.7 was observed around an active region hiding off the east limb at 02:15 UTC. This event was also responsible for a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout on the sunlit side of Earth. This region is currently seething with activity and should begin to rotate into view within the next 24 hours. Because of the sunspot location, any associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) should be directed away from Earth. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest and most up to date Space Weather information.
  M1.9 Flare
A moderate solar flare measuring M1.9 was detected around a new active region off the east limb at 20:32 UTC Sunday evening. This probable sunspot will rotate into view over the next few days. Image by SDO.
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0208 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 13 0219 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 13 0222 UTC
Duration: 14 minutes
Peak Flux: 320 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Solar flare Activity Solar Update CME Update Apr 13 2013

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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2013 Apr 13 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/0334Z from Region 1718 (N21W58). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (14 Apr, 15 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (16 Apr).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 501 km/s at
12/2336Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2240Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 13/0036Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 12/2205Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 268 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (14 Apr) and quiet
levels on days two and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Apr) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (15 Apr).

Solar flare Activity Solar Update CME Update Apr 11 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
11/0716Z from Region 1719 (N10W00). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at
11/1243Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/0712Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0916Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu at 11/1645Z.
Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 2 pfu at 11/1400Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 385 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Apr), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (13 Apr) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (14
Apr). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (12 Apr), have
a chance of crossing threshold on day two (13 Apr) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day three (14 Apr).


III.  Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     99/30/10
PCAF       red

CME Update: A bright full-halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is visible within the new Lasco imagery. It appears that a bulk of the plasma is directed towards the east, however there also appears to be a fair sized Earth directed

A moderately strong solar flare was observed around Sunspot 1719 at 07:16 UTC. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was generated and looks to be directed mostly to the east. There is however an Earth directed component that could deliver at least a glancing blow or more to our geomagnetic field within 48 hours. Energetic Proton Levels streaming past Earth are on the rise following the flare event. A minor to moderate S2 Level Radiation Storm is currently in progress.

A couple more solar flares of the smaller variety were observed following the initial M6.5 event. A minor flare measuring C4.2 was detected around 1721 in the southeast quadrant at 10:13 UTC. Departed Sunspot 1713 off the west limb produced a flare measuring C6.2 at 10:46 UTC. SolarSoft has the flare at C6.3.

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/1834Z from Region 1660 (N13, L=065) which is about a day beyond West
limb. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29
Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 445 km/s at
28/0310Z and was slowly decreasing throughout the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).


III.  Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

Solar Flares Solar activity 11 12 2012

Several M-Class Solar Flares Solar activity picked up in a hurry with the emergence of Sunspot 1613 located in the southern hemisphere. A solar flare reaching M2.0 was detected at 23:28 UTC late monday, followed by an impulsive M6.0 event at 02:04 UTC early Tuesday morning

CME Impact

The ACE Spacecraft detected an interplanetary shock at 22:20 UTC Monday evening. Almost an hour later, A geomagnetic sudden impulse was detected by the ground based magnetometer located in Boulder, Colorado (16 nT @ 23:16 UTC). This signalled the passage of the Coronal Mass Ejection past Earth.

The impact has been fairly minor thus far. The Solar Wind is between 400 and 500 km/s and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is currently pointed North. The Kp index (4) is currently just below the G1 Geomagnetic Storm threshold. Should the Bz tip south for long durations, this could help intensify geomagnetic activity at high latitudes. Skywatchers at very high latitudes should be alert for Aurora.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4

Threshold Reached: 2012 Nov 13 0103 UTC

Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

WARNING: SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse

Observed: 2012 Nov 12 2316 UTC

Deviation: 16 nT

Station: Boulder

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Nov 12 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2012


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
12/1022Z from Region 1610 (S22W10). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 362 km/s at
12/0605Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 12/0724Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8.1 nT at 12/1934Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at mostly active with a chance for minor storm levels early on day
one (13 Nov) due to the arrival of the CMEs from 09/1524Z and 10/0539Z.
Activity is expected to decrease to generally unsettled levels on day 2
(14 Nov) as CME effects subside. On day 3 (15 Nov) conditions are
expected to return to mostly quiet levels.


III.  Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 144
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 145/145/150
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 118


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  013/015-007/010-006/005


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/05
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           25/30/10
Major-severe storm    05/25/05

Current Solar Flare Activity 2012

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY CONTINUES: For the third day in a row, geomagnetic storms are circling the poles. In North America, auroras have spilled across the Canadian border descending as far south as Utah, Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska. The best place to see the show, according to pilot Matt Melnyk, is from the window of an airplane.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A few C-class events were
observed during the period, most from a region around the southeast
limb that has not yet rotated onto the disk.  Three new regions were
numbered today with Region 1589 (N13E75) as the largest and most
active.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare over the next three days
(10-12 October).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field began the day at active levels before the onset
of two major storm periods (09/00-06Z). This peak activity was then
followed by a minor storm period before mostly quiet conditions
prevailed for the remainder of the period. The increased activity
was the result of residual effects from the CME on 05 October. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on day one (10 October), due to
high speed stream effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
forecast on day two (11 October) and mostly quiet levels are
expected on day three (12 October).

The storms were instigated by a CME strike on Oct. 8th and they are about to be re-energized by a solar wind stream due to hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 10th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of strong geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours, so high-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras

Current solar flare storm activity oct 2012

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Oct 04 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-flares during the forecast period (05-07
October).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet during the forecast period (05-07
October).