Updated 10/16/2013 @ 00:05 UTC
Impulsive M-Flare
Sunspot 1865 produced an impulsive M1.3 solar flare at 23:36 UTC Tuesday evening. Impulsive flares are not generally known to produce large coronal mass ejections, however I will provide further updates if necessary. Continue to monitor this region for further flare activity. Image below by SDO using the 094 angstroms channel.
Impulsive M-Flare
Sunspot 1865 produced an impulsive M1.3 solar flare at 23:36 UTC Tuesday evening. Impulsive flares are not generally known to produce large coronal mass ejections, however I will provide further updates if necessary. Continue to monitor this region for further flare activity. Image below by SDO using the 094 angstroms channel.
Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1865 (S21W21,Dao/beta-gamma-delta) produced M1 flares at 15/0838 UTC and 15/2336 UTC. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) subsequently occurred from the 15/0838 UTC flare. The event appeared narrow and off plane from an earthward trajectory. The filament related CME from around 15/00 UTC was also determined unlikely to be a geoeffective transient. Region 1865 maintained an east/west inversion line running through the adjoined leader spots as well as a beta-gamma-delta configuration. Region 1861 (S10W45, Dho/beta) showed slight growth in its intermediate spots and was responsible for multiple C-class flares. A new region (1872) was numbered near S15E67, and appeared to be magnetically simple and inactive. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class (R1-R2 Minor to Moderate) flare for the forecast period. The most likely regions for M-class flare activity continue to be Regions 1861 and 1865. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (16-18 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to indicate the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Speed ranged from 460 to 575 km/s during the period. IMF total field decreased from a high around 12 nT early in the period to lows of around 2 nT during the latter half of the period. Intermittent incidences of negative Bz occurred throughout the period. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind speed and IMF variability are expected to persist for the next three days (16-18 Oct) from combined effects of residual CH HSS and the anticipated arrival of the CME from 13 Oct late on day one (16 Oct). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS and possible weak CME effects. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for day one (16 Oct) due to residual CH HSS conditions early before the anticipated arrival of the weak CME from 13 October late on day one. Quiet to active conditions are expected to persist on day 2 (17 Oct). By day three (18 Oct), conditions are expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels with unsettled periods as CH HSS and CME effects wane.
