Solar flare storm activity Forecast Oct 14 2014
24 hr Summary... Solar activity was moderate. The five spotted groups on the visible solar disk were stable, including newly numbered Region 2189 (N21E18, bxo/beta). The only solar activity today resulted from two eruptions observed well around the SE limb of the visible solar disk. The first event was an impulsive M1 flare at 14/1837 UTC. This event had an associated Tenflare (1300 sfu), but no other CME related radio signatures. Shortly after, a second x-ray enhancement occurred, a long duration M2 flare which peaked at 14/2121 UTC. This event had an associated Tenflare of 180 sfu. Based on source location around the East limb, no Earth directed CMEs are expected from these events. .Forecast... Based solely on the spotted regions currently on the solar disk, solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (15-17 Oct). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three days (15-17 Oct). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (15-17 Oct). Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions at the ACE spacecraft suggest that the anticipated near miss of the CME observed leaving the Sun on 10 Oct, actually produced glancing blow effects to Earth today. At ~14/1000 UTC, Bt increased along with Phi rotations and a speed increase. Bt peaked at 16 nT so far, and intermittent periods of -Bz have been occurring. Solar wind speeds peaked at 521 km/s at 14/2253 UTC. .Forecast... For the next 24-36hrs, solar wind conditions are expected to reflect the continued glancing blow passage of the CME observed on 10 Oct. Bt is expected to slowly decrease. Solar wind speeds are forecast to remain in the 450 km/s range for the remainder of the period (15-17 Oct). Multiple solar sector boundary changes are also expected to unsettle the solar wind conditions for Earth following the CME passage, and through the period. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels, as the result of the glancing blow passage of the CME observed leaving the Sun on 10 Oct. .Forecast... Quiet to minor storm conditions have been forecast for day one (15 Oct) as residual CME effects persist. Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast for days two and three (16-17 Oct) as the result of waning CME effects combined with multiple expected solar sector changes.
