Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to a long-duration M1/Sf
flare from Region 2192 (S15E63, Eki/beta-gamma) at 18/0758 UTC. Region
2192 also produced a multiple mid-level C-class flares throughout the
period and appeared to be increasing in both size and magnetic
complexity as it continues to rotate into full view. The other regions
on the visible disk were stable. A filament eruption (approx 8 degree
extent) centered near N15W10 was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery between
18/0740-0938 UTC. No coronagraph imagery was available at the time of
this writing to determine if a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated
with either the M-flare or the filament eruption occurred.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (18-20 Oct)
with Region 2192 being the likely source.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (18-20 Oct). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the
next three days (18-20 Oct).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of a nominal solar wind
regime. Solar wind speeds were steady in the 400-500 km/s range. IMF
total field values reached 8 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward
component of -7 nT. The phi angle was variable between negative
(toward) and positive (away) solar sectors throughout the period,
suggesting multiple solar sector boundary crossings (SSBCs).
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels over the
next three days (18-20 Oct) with continued transitions between negative
and positive solar sectors.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated
period of active conditions between 18/0000-0300 UTC due to solar sector
variability.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
the remainder of day one (18 Oct) through day three (20 Oct).
Solar flare storm activity Forecast Oct 18 2014
