Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast march 2015

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. There were several C-class/Sf
flares observed, many of which originated from an unnumbered region on
the southeast limb and most from Region 2305. Region 2305 (S08E19,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to grow in area, maintained an increased
magnetic complexity, and produced the largest flare of the period, a
C8/1n flare at 25/0446 UTC. No Earth directed CMEs were observed with
available imagery and observation data.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for an
M-class (R1-Minor) flare for the forecast period (26-28 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was once
again at high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit returned to near background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to remain at high levels through day three (26-28 Mar). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near
background conditions for days one through three (26-28 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft reflected the continued
influence of a positive polarity high speed solar wind stream.  Wind
speed hovered between 580 and 500 km/s. Bt was at or below 7 nT while
Bz remained at or above -5 nT.  Phi was mostly positive.

.Forecast...
The high speed wind stream is expected to gradually decrease through
days one and two (26-27 Mar). A solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) to
a negative Phi orientation is forecast late on day two. A recurrent
negative polarity solar wind structure is expected to become
geoeffective, with velocities near 700 km/s expected for day three (28
Mar).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels in response to
the continued influence of the positive polarity high speed solar wind
stream.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to unsettled
levels through day one (26 Mar).  Unsettled to active conditions are
expected on day two (27 Mar) with the SSBC. Day three (28 Mar) is
forecast to see activity as high as a minor storm due to the onset of
the recurrent negative polarity high speed stream.