Showing posts with label july 26 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label july 26 2012. Show all posts

Thursday, July 26, 2012

latest Solar flare activity july 26 2012

latest Solar flare activity july 26 2012

increasing chance for M-Class flare activity around Sunspot 1530. Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for moderate activity depending on sunspot growth within the next several days.


Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  New Region 1530 (S19E68) was
responsible for multiple low level C-class flares.  The largest was
a C4/Sf at 24/1905Z.  SDO and STEREO-B EUVI 195 imagery show
brightening behind the northeast and southeast limbs, suggesting the
presence of more active regions yet to rotate onto the visible disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated minor storm period at high latitudes from 24/1200 - 1500Z. 
Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft showed an increase in
solar wind speed from approximately 450 km/s to 580 km/s by 24/0830Z
before decreasing to 500 km/s by the end of the period.  This is
likely due to the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high
speed stream.  The greater than 10 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit that began at 23/1545Z, reached a maximum flux
of 12 pfu at 23/2145Z and continued to fluctuate near the 10 pfu
threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active periods on day 1 (25 July) due to persistent effects from the
coronal hole high speed stream.  Mostly quiet conditions are
expected for days 2 - 3 (26 - 27 July).

III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     30/01/01
PCAF       yellow