latest current solar flare storm activity august 15 2013

 latest current solar flare storm activity august 15 2013

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the period, a
C2/Sf flare, erupted from Region 1818 (S07W07, Dki/beta) at 15/1756 UTC.
The region continued to exhibit a horizontal shear line and slight areal
growth over the period. The other region of interest, Region 1817
(S21W31, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited some intermediate spot decay
but redeveloped intermixed magnetic fields including a weak delta within
the large leader spot. The region was responsible for a C1/Sf at 15/1835
UTC. Two new regions were numbered during the period; Region 1822
(S08E57, Dao/beta) rapidly evolved on the disk and Region 1823 (S07E72,
Hsx/alpha) rotated onto the disk. The remaining spot groups were either
stable or in slight decay. At about 14/2000 UTC, both SDO/AIA 304 and
GONG H-alpha imagery observed a 21 degree long filament eruption
centered near S28W70. At 14/2200 UTC, SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed 
a slow-moving CME off the SW limb with a majority of the ejecta directed
just south of the ecliptic plane. WSA Enlil analysis indicated this CME
did not have an Earth-directed component.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain low for the next three days (16 -
18 Aug) with a chance for M-class activity (R1-R2 Radio Blackouts).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels, for
the next three days (16 - 18 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background levels for the
next three days (16 - 18 Aug).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft were consistent with
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) conditions as Earth remained
under the influence of (-) CH54. Winds speeds began the period at around
475 km/s and remained steady at this speed through about 15/1130 UTC. A
gradual rise was then observed to about 600 km/s through 15/1845 UTC
where speeds remained steady through the end of the period.
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt varied between 4 nT and 11 nT
while the Bz component of the IMF varied between +11 to -9 nT. Phi was
in a predominately negative (toward) orientation through about 15/1000
UTC when it became variable between negative and positive (away).

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions should continue to reflect CH HSS effects for the
next two days (16 - 17 Aug). Peak speeds are forecast to be in the 550
km/s to 600 km/s range as the bulk of CH54 becomes more geoeffective. By
day three (18 Aug), solar wind speeds are expected to slowly decrease as
CH HSS effects began to wane.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS
effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated active periods on day one (16 Aug) as CH HSS effects
persist. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (17 Aug)
becoming mostly quiet on day three (18 Aug) as CH HSS effects wane

Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Sympathetic activity
between Regions 1530 (S19E28) and 1532 (S20E53) produced a M2/1f
x-ray event at 1726Z on 27 July. The event was accompanied by a
Tenflare (340 sfu), type II and IV radio sweeps. The type II was
reported with an estimated speed of 2099 km/s, however a radial
speed estimate of the CME obtained from STEREO B coronagraph was
measured near 500 km/s. Initial analysis suggests that the transient
will not likely have a geoeffective trajectory. New Region 1533
(S28E18) developed today and was numbered. There were some
preliminary observations indicating a new region (not yet numbered)
rotating onto the disk in the southern hemisphere, behind Region
1532.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next 3 days (28-30 July).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on day 1 (28 July) as the onset of
coronal hole (CH) high speed stream effects are forecasted. The
field should remain mostly unsettled on day 2 (29 July) with
possible nighttime active levels from substorms. Conditions should
recover from unsettled to active levels to mostly quiet on day 3 (30
July) as CH effects wane.

latest Solar flare activity july 26 2012

latest Solar flare activity july 26 2012

increasing chance for M-Class flare activity around Sunspot 1530. Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for moderate activity depending on sunspot growth within the next several days.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  New Region 1530 (S19E68) was
responsible for multiple low level C-class flares.  The largest was
a C4/Sf at 24/1905Z.  SDO and STEREO-B EUVI 195 imagery show
brightening behind the northeast and southeast limbs, suggesting the
presence of more active regions yet to rotate onto the visible disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated minor storm period at high latitudes from 24/1200 - 1500Z. 
Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft showed an increase in
solar wind speed from approximately 450 km/s to 580 km/s by 24/0830Z
before decreasing to 500 km/s by the end of the period.  This is
likely due to the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high
speed stream.  The greater than 10 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit that began at 23/1545Z, reached a maximum flux
of 12 pfu at 23/2145Z and continued to fluctuate near the 10 pfu
threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active periods on day 1 (25 July) due to persistent effects from the
coronal hole high speed stream.  Mostly quiet conditions are
expected for days 2 - 3 (26 - 27 July).

III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     30/01/01
PCAF       yellow

Visable aurora july 14 2012 solar flare storm

Visable aurora july 14 2012 solar flare storm
 If you’re far enough north, you might catch a glimpse of the magnificent aurora borealis. The northern lights sky show will be more intense tonight because the sun released a large solar flare on Thursday and Friday, and it’s just starting to affect Earth on Saturday morning.

The Display: Shows the intensity and location of the aurora from the solar flare as expected for the time shown at the bottom of the map. This forecast is based on current solar wind conditions and the average time for the solar wind to propagate from the ACE satellite at L1 to Earth.
The model produces an estimate of the intensity of the aurora. In this product a linear relationship between intensity and viewing probability is assumed. This relationship was validated by comparison with data from the UVI instrument on the NASA POLAR Satellite .
The sunlit side of Earth is indicated by the lighter blue of the ocean. The sub-solar point is also shown as a yellow dot but only if the sub-solar point is in the view of the choosen image. The day-night line or terminator is shown as a yellow line. Note that the aurora will not be visible during daylight hours and it may be an hour or more before sunrise or after sunset that the aurora can be seen from the ground.
____ The red line about 1000 km equatorward of the aurora indicates how far away viewers on the ground might see the aurora assuming good viewing conditions.

This is a big solar flare, classified by astronomers as “extreme,” but according to spaceweather.com, it’s barely into that extreme range. Just a few ticks less intense, and it would be ranked in the innocuous “M” (moderate) range.
Nevertheless, this latest solar flare still might be powerful enough for you to see those lovely northern lights tonight, even from latitudes as far south as New York. Will anything else be affected? No, you don’t have to worry about electronics being destroyed, even if you own an Earth-orbiting satellite.
 

latest Solar storm news and solar flare activity july 14 2012

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 199
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1914 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1915 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 14 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.


An incoming Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is expected this morning and could lead to Geomagnetic Storming at high latitudes. The plasma cloud was generated by an X1.4 Solar Flare on Thursday around Sunspot 1520. Continue to monitor the ACE Spacecraft Data for detection of the expected interplanetary shock. In the graph below, you will be looking for a sharp increase in solar wind speed (yellow line).
UPDATE: As of 13:30 UTC (9:30 EST), ACE has yet to detect a sharp increase in solar wind speed. The Proton Levels streaming past Earth are showing some signs of fluctuation however, and this is known to happen in advance of an incoming CME cloud.

 CME Update: The WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction has been updated and is calling for the CME Plasma Cloud to sweep past Earth by 12:00 UTC (8:00am EST) early Saturday morning (July 14). The Goddard Space Center prediction has it forecast for 3 hours earlier. The latest model shows a Solar Wind increase to near 700 km/s.
 

latest Solar storm news and solar flare activity july 13 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1521 (S21W34) has been the most active region,
producing multiple low-level C-class events. Region 1520 (S16W23)
has decayed in area but remains the most magnetically complex region
on the disk, still classified as a beta-gamma-delta. The other four
numbered active sunspot regions have remained quiet and rather
stable. A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 13/0224Z. After
analysis, the CME was determined to not be geoeffective.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (14-16 July), as
Regions 1520 and 1521 continue to evolve and rotate toward the west
limb.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels with a slight chance
for isolated periods at major storm levels on day one (14 July), due
the arrival of the 12 July CME. Unsettled to active levels with a
chance for minor storm periods are expected on day two (15 July), as
effects of the CME continue. A return to predominantly quiet levels
is expected on day three (16 July).

latest Solar storm news and solar flare activity july 11 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1519 (S15W18), 1520
(S17E06) and 1521 (S22W07) all produced C-class flares during the
period.  The largest event was a C9/1n at 11/0831Z from Region 1521.
Region 1520 indicated consolidation and rotation in its trailer
spots while developing additional sheer.  The region remained a
complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.  During the past 24
hours, Region 1521 elongated along its E/W axis and developed a
gamma configuration in its trailer spots.  The region is now
classified as an E-type beta-gamma group.  A 20 degree long filament
erupted in the NE quadrant of the disk at about 11/0930Z.  The
eruption occurred along a channel centered near N22E22.  Limited
LASCO imagery hinted at a possible CME that lifted off the NNE limb
likely associated with the filament eruption.  Further analysis of
this CME is ongoing.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a slight chance for X-class events for the next three
days (12 - 14 July).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated high latitude minor to major storm intervals from
11/0600 - 1200Z.  ACE solar data indicated wind velocities remained
steady at about 500 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the next
three days (12 - 14 July).

Latest Solar Storm News and Solar Flare Activity June 23 2012

Latest Solar Storm News and Solar Flare Activity June 23 2012

An eruption took place early Saturday morning off the northwest limb resulting in a bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Because of the location, the plasma cloud will be directed away from Earth.

Solar Update
Solar activity on the Earth facing side of the Sun should continue at very low levels this weekend. New sunspot 1511 was numbered on Friday, but so far remains a small and magnetically simple region.

latest Solar storm news and solar flare activity june 18 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1504 (S15W53) produced
a few low level C-flares, the largest of which was a C1/Sf at
17/2139Z.  Region 1504 decreased in total area and ended the day at
690 millionths.  Regions 1505 (S13W53) and Region 1506 (N08W42)
showed signs of decay.  There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed
during the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a chance of isolated M-class activity from Region 1504.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. 
Active levels were reached at the beginning of the period from
17/2100Z to 18/0300Z.  Minor storm levels were reached from 18/0300Z
to 18/0600Z.  This elevated activity was due to persistent effects
from the 13 and 14 June CMEs.   The remainder of the period showed a
steady decline to mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (19 June). Quiet levels
are expected on 20 - 21 June.

III.  Event Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jun 118
Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun  115/110/095
90 Day Mean        18 Jun 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  036/055
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  008/010-006/006-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           30/15/10
Major-severe storm    25/05/05