M9.3 Eruption / Earth Directed CME / Radiation Storm

September 5, 2017 @ 19:00 UTC

Strong G3 Storm Watch

Possibly a treat in the works for aurora sky watchers. A Strong (G3) geomagnetic storm watch will be in effect beginning Wednesday (September 6) when the coronal mass ejection (CME) observed Monday is expected to sweep past Earth. Sky watchers across middle to high latitudes should be alert during the next 48 hours. More updates regarding this to follow.

September 5, 2017 @ 00:45 UTC

M5.5 Eruption / Earth Directed CME / Radiation Storm

Moderately strong M5.5 solar flare event observed around region 2673 on Monday evening.UPDATE: An update regarding the M5.5 solar flare event around region 2673 this evening at 20:33 UTC. The flare was associated with a Type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 1472 km/s, along with a 10cm radio burst (TenFlare) lasting 52 minutes and measuring 1600 solar flux units (SFU). Low energy proton levels as measured by the GOES-13 spacecraft are currently on the rise. Updated coronagraph imagery courtesy of LASCO C3 shows a coronal mass ejection (CME) leaving the sun and at least a portion of this cloud may be Earth directed. More updates to follow.

latest Solar flare activity and geomagnetic storms update 10/17/2013

Solar activity is currently at relatively low levels with numerous C-Class flares detected around sprawling sunspot 1861. The active region continues to evolve magnetically as it rotates towards the west limb. There will remain a chance for an isolated M-Class event within the next 24 hours. All other regions, including formerly active sunspot 1865 remain stable. A new sunspot is forming quickly in the southeast quadrant and should be monitored for further growth. Old sunspot 1850 rotated back into view off the east limb and appears to be stable at this time. 

Solar activity was low. Region 1865 (S22W37, Dso/beta-delta) and Region
1861 (S10W57, Dhc/beta-gamma) were responsible for multiple C-class
flares. Region 1861 produced a C1/Sf flare at 16/0920 UTC with
associated weak types II (est. shock speed 548 km/s) and IV radio
sweeps. After analysis, the associated CME was determined to have a
narrow south-western trajectory unlikely to be geoeffective.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class (R1-R2
Minor to Moderate) flare for the forecast period (17-19 Oct). The most
likely regions for M-class flare activity continue to be Regions 1861
and 1865.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (17-19 Oct). 
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated the
remnant presence of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Speed
decreased from near 550 km/s at the beginning of the period to just over
460 km/s by the end of the period. IMF total field held steady at
around 4 nT, while IMF Bz intermittently dipped southward briefly
as low as -4 nT. Phi angle remained in a positive (Away) orientation
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind variability is expected to persist for the next two
days (17-18 Oct) from combined effects of residual CH HSS and the
anticipated arrival of the CME from 13 Oct, now expected early on day
one (17 Oct). A return to ambient conditions is forecast for day three
(19 Oct).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period at 16/00-03 UTC due to residual CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a
slight chance for minor storm (G1-minor) levels late on day one (17 Oct)
with the anticipated arrival of the weak CME from 13 October. Day two
(18 Oct) should expect a decrease, with quiet to unsettled periods
expected as CH HSS and CME effects wane. A return to mostly quiet
conditions is forecast for day three (19 Oct).

SOLAR FLARE STORM aug 16 2013

Updated 08/16/2013 @ 20:55
Geomagnetic Storm Watch
A solar wind stream flowing past Earth remains above 700 km/s. A brief period of minor geomagnetic storming (Kp=5) was observed early this morning at high latitudes. Additional flareups of minor storming will be possible today, particularly if the Bz/IMF component decides to tip south for an extended period of time. Stay tuned for the latest information.
UPDATE: A solar wind stream flowing from a geoeffective coronal hole remains elevated near 700 km/s heading into Friday evening and the Bz/IMF component remains fairly stable. Only minor geomagnetic disturbances (Kp=4) have been detected today so far. There will remain a chance for isolated storm conditions (Kp=5) at high latitudes tonight. Be on the lookout for visible aurora should geomagnetic conditions allow.

Solar activity is currently low with only minor B-Class activity detected within the past 12 hours and an impulsive C1.3 flare moments ago at 12:47 UTC around Sunspot 1818. Both regions 1817 and 1818 have a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. There will remain a chance for C-Class flares and perhaps an isolated M-Class event. A small eruption registering as a C2.9 solar flare Thursday evening to the west of 1817 generated a faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) now visible in the updated Lasco C2 imagery. It does not appears to be Earth directed.
UPDATE: 1817 again appears to be weakening, but 1818 retains a delta configuration and is currently producing impulsive C-Class solar flares.
A small eruption registering as a C2.9 solar flare Thursday evening to the west of 1817 generated a faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) now visible in the updated Lasco C2 imagery. It does not appears to be Earth directed.

latest current solar flare storm activity august 15 2013

 latest current solar flare storm activity august 15 2013

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the period, a
C2/Sf flare, erupted from Region 1818 (S07W07, Dki/beta) at 15/1756 UTC.
The region continued to exhibit a horizontal shear line and slight areal
growth over the period. The other region of interest, Region 1817
(S21W31, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited some intermediate spot decay
but redeveloped intermixed magnetic fields including a weak delta within
the large leader spot. The region was responsible for a C1/Sf at 15/1835
UTC. Two new regions were numbered during the period; Region 1822
(S08E57, Dao/beta) rapidly evolved on the disk and Region 1823 (S07E72,
Hsx/alpha) rotated onto the disk. The remaining spot groups were either
stable or in slight decay. At about 14/2000 UTC, both SDO/AIA 304 and
GONG H-alpha imagery observed a 21 degree long filament eruption
centered near S28W70. At 14/2200 UTC, SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed 
a slow-moving CME off the SW limb with a majority of the ejecta directed
just south of the ecliptic plane. WSA Enlil analysis indicated this CME
did not have an Earth-directed component.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain low for the next three days (16 -
18 Aug) with a chance for M-class activity (R1-R2 Radio Blackouts).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels, for
the next three days (16 - 18 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background levels for the
next three days (16 - 18 Aug).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft were consistent with
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) conditions as Earth remained
under the influence of (-) CH54. Winds speeds began the period at around
475 km/s and remained steady at this speed through about 15/1130 UTC. A
gradual rise was then observed to about 600 km/s through 15/1845 UTC
where speeds remained steady through the end of the period.
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt varied between 4 nT and 11 nT
while the Bz component of the IMF varied between +11 to -9 nT. Phi was
in a predominately negative (toward) orientation through about 15/1000
UTC when it became variable between negative and positive (away).

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions should continue to reflect CH HSS effects for the
next two days (16 - 17 Aug). Peak speeds are forecast to be in the 550
km/s to 600 km/s range as the bulk of CH54 becomes more geoeffective. By
day three (18 Aug), solar wind speeds are expected to slowly decrease as
CH HSS effects began to wane.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS
effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated active periods on day one (16 Aug) as CH HSS effects
persist. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (17 Aug)
becoming mostly quiet on day three (18 Aug) as CH HSS effects wane