latest solar flare activity - Strong G3 Geomagnetic Storm June 22 2015

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a Strong G3 Geomagnetic Storm watch beginning tomorrow (June 22). The expected storm is the result of a full halo CME observed early Sunday morning. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert for visual aurora during the next several days.

Solar activity during the past 24 hours was moderate. Region 2367 was responsible for the strongest X-Ray event of the period, an impulsive M3.8 flare peaking at 09:44 UTC. A noteworthy CME from this event is unlikely. The most interesting event of the past 24 hours was a dual M-Flare event around region 2371 during the early hours of June 21. An M2.0 flare was quickly followed up by an M2.6 event at 02:34 UTC.

 A full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) became visible soon after in coronagraph imagery and appears to be Earth directed. An impact to our geomagnetic field will be possible during the next 48-72 hours and could lead to geomagnetic storming at high latitudes. Additional isolated M-Flares will be possible around both regions 2367 and 2371 during the next day. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.

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latest Solar flare activity and geomagnetic storms update 10/17/2013

Solar activity is currently at relatively low levels with numerous C-Class flares detected around sprawling sunspot 1861. The active region continues to evolve magnetically as it rotates towards the west limb. There will remain a chance for an isolated M-Class event within the next 24 hours. All other regions, including formerly active sunspot 1865 remain stable. A new sunspot is forming quickly in the southeast quadrant and should be monitored for further growth. Old sunspot 1850 rotated back into view off the east limb and appears to be stable at this time. 

Solar activity was low. Region 1865 (S22W37, Dso/beta-delta) and Region
1861 (S10W57, Dhc/beta-gamma) were responsible for multiple C-class
flares. Region 1861 produced a C1/Sf flare at 16/0920 UTC with
associated weak types II (est. shock speed 548 km/s) and IV radio
sweeps. After analysis, the associated CME was determined to have a
narrow south-western trajectory unlikely to be geoeffective.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class (R1-R2
Minor to Moderate) flare for the forecast period (17-19 Oct). The most
likely regions for M-class flare activity continue to be Regions 1861
and 1865.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (17-19 Oct). 
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated the
remnant presence of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Speed
decreased from near 550 km/s at the beginning of the period to just over
460 km/s by the end of the period. IMF total field held steady at
around 4 nT, while IMF Bz intermittently dipped southward briefly
as low as -4 nT. Phi angle remained in a positive (Away) orientation
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind variability is expected to persist for the next two
days (17-18 Oct) from combined effects of residual CH HSS and the
anticipated arrival of the CME from 13 Oct, now expected early on day
one (17 Oct). A return to ambient conditions is forecast for day three
(19 Oct).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period at 16/00-03 UTC due to residual CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a
slight chance for minor storm (G1-minor) levels late on day one (17 Oct)
with the anticipated arrival of the weak CME from 13 October. Day two
(18 Oct) should expect a decrease, with quiet to unsettled periods
expected as CH HSS and CME effects wane. A return to mostly quiet
conditions is forecast for day three (19 Oct).

SOLAR FLARE STORM aug 16 2013

Updated 08/16/2013 @ 20:55
Geomagnetic Storm Watch
A solar wind stream flowing past Earth remains above 700 km/s. A brief period of minor geomagnetic storming (Kp=5) was observed early this morning at high latitudes. Additional flareups of minor storming will be possible today, particularly if the Bz/IMF component decides to tip south for an extended period of time. Stay tuned for the latest information.
UPDATE: A solar wind stream flowing from a geoeffective coronal hole remains elevated near 700 km/s heading into Friday evening and the Bz/IMF component remains fairly stable. Only minor geomagnetic disturbances (Kp=4) have been detected today so far. There will remain a chance for isolated storm conditions (Kp=5) at high latitudes tonight. Be on the lookout for visible aurora should geomagnetic conditions allow.

Solar activity is currently low with only minor B-Class activity detected within the past 12 hours and an impulsive C1.3 flare moments ago at 12:47 UTC around Sunspot 1818. Both regions 1817 and 1818 have a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. There will remain a chance for C-Class flares and perhaps an isolated M-Class event. A small eruption registering as a C2.9 solar flare Thursday evening to the west of 1817 generated a faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) now visible in the updated Lasco C2 imagery. It does not appears to be Earth directed.
UPDATE: 1817 again appears to be weakening, but 1818 retains a delta configuration and is currently producing impulsive C-Class solar flares.
A small eruption registering as a C2.9 solar flare Thursday evening to the west of 1817 generated a faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) now visible in the updated Lasco C2 imagery. It does not appears to be Earth directed.

Solar Active Regions and Activity 17 May 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
17/0857Z from Region 1748 (N12E23). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels with a chance for X-class flares on days one,
two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).



IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
431 km/s at 17/0120Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1927Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2126Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 41 pfu at
17/1720Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 203 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 May), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (19 May) and quiet to active levels on day three
(20 May). Protons are expected to continue above threshold levels on
days 1-3 (18-20 May).


III.  Event probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    50/50/50
Proton     99/95/90
PCAF       red

Solar flare Activity Solar Update CME Update 12 May 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/2032Z from a region around the east limb. There are currently 10
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May,
15 May).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 435 km/s at
11/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 456 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 May), quiet levels on
day two (14 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 May).


III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

Updated 05/13/2013 @ 02:10 UTC
X-Class Solar Flare
A major X-Class Solar Flare peaking at X1.7 was observed around an active region hiding off the east limb at 02:15 UTC. This event was also responsible for a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout on the sunlit side of Earth. This region is currently seething with activity and should begin to rotate into view within the next 24 hours. Because of the sunspot location, any associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) should be directed away from Earth. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest and most up to date Space Weather information.
  M1.9 Flare
A moderate solar flare measuring M1.9 was detected around a new active region off the east limb at 20:32 UTC Sunday evening. This probable sunspot will rotate into view over the next few days. Image by SDO.
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0208 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 13 0219 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 13 0222 UTC
Duration: 14 minutes
Peak Flux: 320 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Solar flare Activity Solar Update CME Update Apr 13 2013

j

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2013 Apr 13 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/0334Z from Region 1718 (N21W58). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (14 Apr, 15 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (16 Apr).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 501 km/s at
12/2336Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2240Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 13/0036Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 12/2205Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 268 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (14 Apr) and quiet
levels on days two and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Apr) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (15 Apr).

Solar flare Activity Solar Update CME Update Apr 11 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
11/0716Z from Region 1719 (N10W00). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at
11/1243Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/0712Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0916Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu at 11/1645Z.
Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 2 pfu at 11/1400Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 385 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Apr), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (13 Apr) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (14
Apr). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (12 Apr), have
a chance of crossing threshold on day two (13 Apr) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day three (14 Apr).


III.  Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     99/30/10
PCAF       red

CME Update: A bright full-halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is visible within the new Lasco imagery. It appears that a bulk of the plasma is directed towards the east, however there also appears to be a fair sized Earth directed

A moderately strong solar flare was observed around Sunspot 1719 at 07:16 UTC. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was generated and looks to be directed mostly to the east. There is however an Earth directed component that could deliver at least a glancing blow or more to our geomagnetic field within 48 hours. Energetic Proton Levels streaming past Earth are on the rise following the flare event. A minor to moderate S2 Level Radiation Storm is currently in progress.

A couple more solar flares of the smaller variety were observed following the initial M6.5 event. A minor flare measuring C4.2 was detected around 1721 in the southeast quadrant at 10:13 UTC. Departed Sunspot 1713 off the west limb produced a flare measuring C6.2 at 10:46 UTC. SolarSoft has the flare at C6.3.

Todays Solar Flare Activity April 24 2012 Causing Geomagnetic Storm Aurora

C-Class Flare and CME
A couple of new sunspots are rotating into view off the eastern limb. One of these regions located off the northeast limb produced a C3.7 Solar Flare at 07:45 UTC this morning and was associated with a Type II Sweep Frequency Event and CME. Due to the spots location, the plasma cloud should be directed mostly towards the east.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Apr 24 0748 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1029 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 active regions on the disk, with 5
regions having sunspots. The spotted regions on the disk all
remained rather quiet and stable throughout the period. However,
around plage Region 1461 (N10W19), two C-class events were observed
today with associated Earth directed CMEs.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class x-ray events for the next three
days (24 - 26 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the
past 24 hours. Observations made by the ACE spacecraft, around
23/0200Z, indicated the arrival of a CME that lifted off the solar
disk on 19 April. Solar wind velocities increased from 350 - 400
km/s with the total IMF reaching around 18 nT. The Boulder
magnetometer measured a 31 nT sudden impulse at 23/0325Z in
conjunction with the CME arrival here at Earth. From then on, active
to minor storm levels were observed due to multiple periods of
sustained negative Bz.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with a slight chance for a
minor storm on day 1 (24 April) as effects from the CME wane and a
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moves in. Quiet to active
levels are expected on day two (25 April) as the effects of the CH
HSS continue. An increase to quiet to minor storm levels are
expected on day three (26 April) as the two CMEs, observed earlier
in the period, are expected to become geoeffective.

Todays Solar Flare Activity April 23 2012 Causing Geomagnetic Storm Aurora

Todays Solar Flare Activity April 23 2012 Causing Geomagnetic Storm Aurora

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Occasional low-level C-class
flares occurred. Region 1459 (S15W25 - Dki/beta) produced a single
C-class flare and showed signs of gradual decay in its intermediate
portion. Region 1465 (S18E14 - Dai/beta) produced two C-class flares
and showed spot and penumbral development as well as some polarity
mixing in its intermediate portion. New Region 1466 (N12E29 -
Cso/beta) emerged early in the period and gradually grew. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (23 - 25 April) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with a
brief interval of active levels at high latitudes.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (23 -
24 April) with a chance for active levels due mainly to a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream. Weak CME-passage effects are also
possible on day 1 from the partial-halo CME observed on 19 April.
Field activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on day
3 (25 April).

 Solar Update
Things remain very quiet on the Sun with no noteworthy solar flares to report. Sunspot 1462 is now heading for the southwest limb. A new sunspot may be hiding on the southeast limb and will soon rotate into direct Earth view.

  

Aurora Watch / G1 Geomagnetic Storm

 A incoming CME shock swept past our planet at 03:25 UTC. A geomagnetic sudden impulse of 31 nT was detected by the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer. The ACE Spacecraft did show a solar wind increase to near 400 km/s. Only minor geomagnetic activity resulted at very high latitudes.

Update: A Minor Geomagnetic Storm (Kp=5) is now in progress at high latitudes. This is due to a south tilting component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field combined with an elevated solar wind speed. Be on the lookout for Aurora if it is dark outside.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Apr 23 1937 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

latest Report of Solar flare and Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1434 (S20W40) produced
a single C1/Sn flare at 17/0237Z and ended the period as a Dso type
group with beta magnetic characteristics.  Region 1435 (S25W50) grew
larger and more magnetically complex, ending as a Dao type group
with beta-gamma magnetic characteristics.  A non-Earth-directed CME
was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 18/0024Z and believed to
originate from old Region 1429 (N19, L=295).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare from Regions 1434 or 1435.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.  The
coronal hole high speed stream abated over the course of the day. 
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft began declining from 650 km/s
at 17/2300Z to end the period near 500 km/s. Bt decreased and Bz was
neutral to slightly negative.  With the departure of the high speed
stream, the geomagnetic field activity decreased from active to
quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels as a CME from 15 March
arrives early in the period on Day 1 (19 March).  There is a slight
chance for minor storm levels.  Activity levels are expected to
decline to unsettled on Day 2 (20 March) and quiet by Day 3 (21
March) as the effects from the CME subside.

III.  Event Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

Solar and Geophysical Activity Report of 09 Mar 2012

Strong Solar Flare
Sunspot 1429 is now in a great geoeffective position for Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections. This region just produced a strong M6.3 Solar Flare at 03:53 UTC Friday morning. A movie presentation is now shown below. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is now seen in the latest Lasco C2 and STEREO Behind COR2 images. More images will be needed to determine how large of a plasma cloud it is, and if it will be Earth directed.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 09 0343 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1285 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Updated 3/9/2012 @ 02:40 UTC
CME Impact / Geomagnetic Storm Subsides
The ACE Spacecraft detected a shock passage and a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse measuring 58 nT at the Boulder Station was recorded at 11:05 UTC Thursday morning. The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) caused by the X5.4 Solar Flare did impact Earths geomagnetic field.

Minor Geomagnetic Storming (Kp=5) persisted for many hours today, but the Kp Index is now below the G1 minor storm level. Depending on the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), there will be a chance for additional storm flareups over the hours ahead. Visible Aurora will remain possible at very high latitudes.

Bz Update The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has been pointing mostly to the north and this has kept the geomagnetic storm at minor levels thus far. Should the Bz begin to point south for long durations, this may help intensify the storm.

Strong Solar Wind The current Solar Wind speed continues to gradually decrease and is now near 650 km/s, as per the SOHO Spacecraft data. As you can tell by the updated graph below, the solar wind spiked to above 800 km/s when the CME shock swept past SOHO. 

Updated Mar 08 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A C7/Sf flare was observed
from Region 1428 (S17W19).  Region 1429 (N17E01) remains a large Ekc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification. 
Possible separation was observed within the intermediate area of the
spot group.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels with a chance for further X-class activity
from Region 1429 for the next three days (09 - 11 March).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions
with major storm periods observed at high latitudes during 08/1200 -
1800Z.  At 08/1045Z, a 40 nT shock was observed at the ACE
spacecraft from the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME)
associated with the X5 flare that occurred early on 07 March.  A
sudden impulse was observed shortly after at the Boulder
magnetometer at 08/1105Z (59 nT).  Minor storm periods were observed
as a result of the CME arrival.  The greater than 10 MeV proton
event that began at 07/0510Z increased to a maximum of 6530 pfu at
08/1115Z as a result of the CME shock.  The greater than 100 MeV
proton event that began at 07/0405Z, and reached a maximum value of
69.3 pfu at 07/1525Z, has slowly declined.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor to major
storm periods possible on day 1 (09 March) as the Earth continues to
be under the influence of the CME from 07 March.  Quiet to unsettled
conditions with isolated active periods possible are expected for
days 2 - 3 (10 - 11 March).

latest news of Solar Flare Activity March 7 2012

Updated Mar 07 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 1429 (N17E15) produced
an X5/3B long-duration flare with maximum at 07/0024Z. The event was
associated with type II and type IV radio sweeps and a full halo,
though slightly asymmetric coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME had
an estimated plane of sky speed of about 2200 km/s. During the decay
of the X5 x-ray event, Region 1430 (N21W00) produced an X1/Sf at
0114Z. Region 1429 dominates the disk with an area of about 1300
millionths. Observations show slight separation of the central spots
but the region continues to be large and magnetically complex;
multiple deltas are clearly evident as well as a dominant east-west
polarity inversion line. Region 1430 showed steady growth during the
past 24 hours. Region 1428 (S17W05) also showed growth during the
period but was relatively quiet and stable.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class level activity is expected to continue and
there continues to be a good chance for an additional major flare
and/or proton producing event from Region 1429. In addition, the
growth trend in 1430 suggests that it may also contribute to the
M-flare activity during the next three days.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. Activity levels were initially quiet to unsettled
until an interplanetary shock arrived. The shock was seen at ACE at
07/0334Z and was followed by a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at
Earth at 07/0421Z. Although solar wind speeds did not increase
greatly, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and density did
increase markedly and the Bz component had numerous intervals of
fairly strong southward orientation (with the strongest negative
intervals at about -15 to -20 nT). Geomagnetic activity increased to
minor to major storm levels following the SSC with some periods of
severe storm levels at high latitudes. The disturbance most likely
originated from the X1/halo CME that occurred on 05 March. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event began at 07/0500Z and has reached a peak so
far of 1630 PFU at 1540Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton event also
occurred, beginning at 07/0405Z and reaching an apparent maximum of
69 PFU at 07/1525Z. Both of these events continue in progress and
are clearly associated with todays X5/Full halo CME event.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active initially on day 1 (08 March) but is expected
to increase to major storm levels with a likelihood for isolated
severe storm levels after the arrival of the CME from todays
X5/full halo event. The arrival time is estimated to be sometime
between 0600-1000Z. Minor to major storm levels are expected to
continue partway (6-12 hours) into the second day (09 March), but a
decline to predominantly active levels is expected for the remainder
of the day. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the
third day (10 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue through the first day and is also likely to
continue partway through the second day. The greater than 100 Mev
proton event is expected to slowly decline over the next 24 hours.

III.  Event Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    40/40/40
Proton     99/80/50
PCAF       red

Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Feb 2012

Updated Feb 08 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N16W90) produced a
slow rise and fall, limb event, C7 x-ray flare at 07/2216Z.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (09-11 February).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled over the period due to
elevated ambient solar wind speeds and periods of southward Bz.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods for days 1-2 (09-10 February) due to coronal hole effects.
Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels on day 3 (11
February).

Solar and Geophysical Activity Forecast

Updated Feb 08 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N16W90) produced a
slow rise and fall, limb event, C7 x-ray flare at 07/2216Z.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (09-11 February).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled over the period due to
elevated ambient solar wind speeds and periods of southward Bz.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods for days 1-2 (09-10 February) due to coronal hole effects.
Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels on day 3 (11
February).

latest Solar and Geophysical Activity report

Updated Feb 05 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The disk and
limb was quiet and stable with no Earth-directed CMEs detected.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (06 -
08 February).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated high latitude active period.  ACE satellite wind speeds
were steady between 400 to 450 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary beyond +/- 4 nT.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (06 -
08 February).

Are You Prepared for Emergency Survival Following a Solar Storm? Part IV - News - Weather

Solar storms are coming. The current solar maximum is projected to peak in late 2012 to early 2013. World organizations and governments are quietly organizing. What are our governments, and scientists doing to prepare. We know that they have been meeting with increased frequency, and diversity, but what answers or information have they given us about the very likely upcoming solar storm activity? What instructions have they given us about preparation?
The truth is the world governments and organizations are having a difficult time trying to plan for the potential upcoming solar super storm. The numbers of people that will be affected are just too great for them to come up with a plan to take care of everyone. They will surely come up with a plan, but they will only be able to protect a finite number of people. So the rest of us are left to fend for ourselves.
In order to address what youll need to prepare for an upcoming solar super storm, we must look at what the effects of such a storm will be. The satellites that surround the earth will be the first casualties of an extreme coronal mass ejection. Some scientist suggest that if they are put into a sleep like mode that they could survive. The shear amounts of energy that will bombard the electrical systems in these satellites lead us to believe otherwise. So communications are the first losses we will suffer. Cell phones, internet, television, and government coordination will cease. Next to go are the huge transformers at the power stations on the daylight side of the earth. When these transformers blow, they are more than likely be irreparable, at least on-site. The effect will be the loss of power grids across that side of the globe. Transportation will likely be greatly reduced as production, and distribution of fuels will be impacted.
With no power, short rang communication only, and scarce supply lines, communities will be forced to work together to survive. Medical supplies, food, and clean water will be the primary items needed for survival. Depending on where you live and the time of year, staying warm may also be an important consideration.
Many neighborhoods have begun setting up Community Emergency Response Teams or CERT. These organizations are preparing to help following many different types of disasters, and emergencies. They consist of professional police officers, fire fighters and emergency medical personnel, and they also train others in the neighborhood to assist in many different rolls. While these types of organizations will be vital in each community, individuals also need to prepare.
Each family should already have short term emergency survival kits that will last them for at least 72 hours, but more will be needed. It is recommended for individuals to keep their homes stocked with a decent amount of non-perishable foods. With no electricity food in refrigerators and freezers will need to be cooked and eaten in short order. It is also important to have a good supply of some MREs or non-perishable meals that have a long shelf life. It will be important to have camp stoves, barbeques, or emergency portable stoves with fuel tablets, to be able to cook with, boil water, and wash with. Lighting will be necessary in the night time hours, and batteries will only get you so far. We recommend lighting that uses human, or solar power to charge them up. For clean water you will either need to boil it, or have a way to purify it. Water purification tablets, and micro-water filters like those used when camping are best.
You can be prepared for the solar super storm, but it will take action on everyones part to stock up on the essentials. Communities, of individuals working together will be key, and these organizations need support, and supplies to be ready to assist for what ever emergency arises. So dont wait, take action now to prepare your family for whatever the future may bring.

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latest Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

Feb 04 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  A six degree
long filament eruption was visible in SDO/AIA 304 imagery, first
observed at about 03/2031Z.  The filament was centered near N25W27,
just to the northeast of Region 1410 (N16W44).  SOHO LASCO C2
imagery observed a slow-moving CME off the north limb of the disk,
first visible at 04/0836Z.  At this time, the CME does not appear to
have an Earthward-directed component.  New Region 1414 (S06W19)
emerged on the disk as a simple B-type beta group.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (05 -
07 February).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels at middle latitudes
while active to minor storm periods were observed at high latitudes.
ACE satellite observations indicated a steady increase in wind
velocities through the period from about 400 km/s to near 460 km/s. 
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary
much beyond +/- 5 nT for the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (05 -
07 February).

Solar Flares are we going to get fried

A solar flare is an intense flash of extreme radiation emanating from the Sun.  Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X (ranged from small to large).

Solar flares can produce streams of highly energetic particles in the solar wind, known as a solar proton event, or "coronal mass ejection" (CME). At high levels we speak of a Solar Radiation Storm.
These particles can impact the Earth's magnetosphere and can cause a geomagnetic storm. Such storms can interfere with modern technology on Earth, such as electrical power grids, communications systems and satellites.


In 2012 a new solar maximum is expected (Solar Cycle 24)  and we  could be in for a huge firework display.  The Sun will be approaching the peak of its 11-year cycle, so we can expect a lot of solar activity. Certain predictions put the solar greatest extent of Solar Cycle 24 even more vigorous than the last solar maximum in 2002-2003 take into account all those record breaking X-class flares. But should we be worried?

On March 13th, 1989 a huge solar induced magnetic storm played havoc with the ionosphere, and the earth's magnetic field. This storm, the second largest storm experienced in the past 50 years, totally shut down Hydro-Quebec, the power grid servicing Canada's Quebec province. Service restoration took more than nine hours.
The solar storm of 1859, also known as the Solar Superstorm was the most powerful solar storm in recorded history. Aurorae were seen around the world. In the Rocky Mountains it was so bright that the glow awoke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning.