latest solar flare activity - Strong G3 Geomagnetic Storm June 22 2015

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a Strong G3 Geomagnetic Storm watch beginning tomorrow (June 22). The expected storm is the result of a full halo CME observed early Sunday morning. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert for visual aurora during the next several days.

Solar activity during the past 24 hours was moderate. Region 2367 was responsible for the strongest X-Ray event of the period, an impulsive M3.8 flare peaking at 09:44 UTC. A noteworthy CME from this event is unlikely. The most interesting event of the past 24 hours was a dual M-Flare event around region 2371 during the early hours of June 21. An M2.0 flare was quickly followed up by an M2.6 event at 02:34 UTC.

 A full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) became visible soon after in coronagraph imagery and appears to be Earth directed. An impact to our geomagnetic field will be possible during the next 48-72 hours and could lead to geomagnetic storming at high latitudes. Additional isolated M-Flares will be possible around both regions 2367 and 2371 during the next day. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.

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X4.9 Solar Flare 02/24/2014 - possibility of a coronal mass ejection CME

The X4.9 Solar Flare was associated with a Type II radio emission with a velocity of nearly 2000 km/s. This indicates the possibility of a coronal mass ejection. A 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 3700 sfu and lasting 85 minutes was also recorded. Despite newly renumbered region 1990 being close to the limb, it is still possible to be flanked by a CME from this location if it happens to be large enough. More updates to follow if a CME is associated. Attached video by SDO.


ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1972 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.


SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0042 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
End Time: 2014 Feb 25 0107 UTC
Duration: 85 minutes
Peak Flux: 3700 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 171 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Solar Active Regions and Activity feb 23 2014

Activity again reached moderate levels due to a low level M-Flare (M1.2) at 11:17 UTC Monday morning. Most flare activity, including the M1.2 flare, is being centered around former region 1967 which is now returning into view off the east limb. A dark core belonging to the long lasting active region is now visible in the latest imagery. It appears that 1967 is in an advanced state of decay and may no longer be a large threat for strong X-Class solar flares. We will have a better look at the entire region within the next 24 hours. Elsewhere, sunspot duo 1981-1982 remains stable as it transits the center of the visible disk. All other regions, including region 1987, remain quiet. There will continue to be a chance for an isolated M-Class event with regions 1981-1982 and returning region 1967 being the likely source. 

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/1205Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
589 km/s at 24/0550Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2224Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 23/2101Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (25 Feb, 27
Feb) and quiet levels on day two (26 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 171
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 175/180/180
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  009/008-006/005-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    20/05/25

Major Solar Flare activity - jan 7 2014

  Major Solar Flare Detected + CME
A major solar flare measuring X1.2 was detected on Tuesday afternoon peaking at 18:30 UTC. The source of the eruption was region 1943, with interaction between sunspot 1944. Because the flare appears to be long in duration, a coronal mass ejection is possible (see below). The blast site is in a great geoeffective position for Earth directed eruptions. Attached image by the Solar Dyanamics Observatory (SDO) below, captures a "wave" of plasma racing away from the blast site.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2014 Jan 07 1230 UTC

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels during the past 24 hours. Region 1944
(S09E06, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) remained the largest, most complex spot
group on the visible disk and produced the largest flare of the period,
a M7/2b flare at 07/1013 UTC. The flare had an associated 10 cm
Castelli-U radio burst with a peak flux of 409 sfu. This region
continued to exhibit growth, mainly in its leader spots, and produced
several low-level C-class flares throughout the period. Region 1946
(N09E01, Dac/beta-gamma) was the second largest region on the visible
disk and produced the second largest flare of the period, a M1/1n flare
at 07/0353 UTC. It showed signs of consolidation in the trailer spots as
well as separation between the intermediate and trailer spots, and was
responsible for additional low-level C-class flares. The remaining five
spot groups on the visible disk were either stable or showed signs of
decay. Analysis of any coronal mass ejection activity associated with
either the M1 or the M7 flare will be conducted as imagery becomes
available.
   
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels (R1-Minor to
R2-Moderate) for the next three days (07-09 Jan) with a chance for
X-class (R3-Strong) flares from active Regions 1944 and 1946.  

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Jan 07 1817 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1064 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
Updated 01/07/2014 @ 15:30 UTC
CME Sweeps Past Earth
The ACE Spacecraft detected a solar wind increase to above 400km/s at 14:25 UTC. A geomagnetic sudden impulse measuring 7 nT was detected by the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer at 15:15 UTC. This signals the passage of an expected coronal mass ejection (CME) past our planet. The initial impact appears to be weak.

latest Solar flare activity and geomagnetic storms update 10/17/2013

Solar activity is currently at relatively low levels with numerous C-Class flares detected around sprawling sunspot 1861. The active region continues to evolve magnetically as it rotates towards the west limb. There will remain a chance for an isolated M-Class event within the next 24 hours. All other regions, including formerly active sunspot 1865 remain stable. A new sunspot is forming quickly in the southeast quadrant and should be monitored for further growth. Old sunspot 1850 rotated back into view off the east limb and appears to be stable at this time. 

Solar activity was low. Region 1865 (S22W37, Dso/beta-delta) and Region
1861 (S10W57, Dhc/beta-gamma) were responsible for multiple C-class
flares. Region 1861 produced a C1/Sf flare at 16/0920 UTC with
associated weak types II (est. shock speed 548 km/s) and IV radio
sweeps. After analysis, the associated CME was determined to have a
narrow south-western trajectory unlikely to be geoeffective.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class (R1-R2
Minor to Moderate) flare for the forecast period (17-19 Oct). The most
likely regions for M-class flare activity continue to be Regions 1861
and 1865.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (17-19 Oct). 
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated the
remnant presence of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Speed
decreased from near 550 km/s at the beginning of the period to just over
460 km/s by the end of the period. IMF total field held steady at
around 4 nT, while IMF Bz intermittently dipped southward briefly
as low as -4 nT. Phi angle remained in a positive (Away) orientation
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind variability is expected to persist for the next two
days (17-18 Oct) from combined effects of residual CH HSS and the
anticipated arrival of the CME from 13 Oct, now expected early on day
one (17 Oct). A return to ambient conditions is forecast for day three
(19 Oct).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period at 16/00-03 UTC due to residual CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a
slight chance for minor storm (G1-minor) levels late on day one (17 Oct)
with the anticipated arrival of the weak CME from 13 October. Day two
(18 Oct) should expect a decrease, with quiet to unsettled periods
expected as CH HSS and CME effects wane. A return to mostly quiet
conditions is forecast for day three (19 Oct).

Current Solar Flare Activity oct 15 2013

Updated 10/16/2013 @ 00:05 UTC
Impulsive M-Flare
Sunspot 1865 produced an impulsive M1.3 solar flare at 23:36 UTC Tuesday evening. Impulsive flares are not generally known to produce large coronal mass ejections, however I will provide further updates if necessary. Continue to monitor this region for further flare activity. Image below by SDO using the 094 angstroms channel.

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1865
(S21W21,Dao/beta-gamma-delta) produced M1 flares at 15/0838 UTC and
15/2336 UTC. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) subsequently
occurred from the 15/0838 UTC flare. The event appeared narrow and off
plane from an earthward trajectory. The filament related CME from around
15/00 UTC was also determined unlikely to be a geoeffective transient.
Region 1865 maintained an east/west inversion line running through the
adjoined leader spots as well as a beta-gamma-delta configuration.
Region 1861 (S10W45, Dho/beta) showed slight growth in its intermediate
spots and was responsible for multiple C-class flares. A new region
(1872) was numbered near S15E67, and appeared to be  magnetically simple
and inactive.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class (R1-R2
Minor to Moderate) flare for the forecast period.  The most likely
regions for M-class flare activity continue to be Regions 1861 and 1865.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (16-18 Oct). 
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to indicate the influence of a coronal
hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Speed ranged from 460 to 575 km/s
during the period. IMF total field decreased from a high around 12 nT
early in the period to lows of around 2 nT during the latter half of the
period. Intermittent incidences of negative Bz occurred throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind speed and IMF variability are expected to persist
for the next three days (16-18 Oct) from combined effects of residual CH
HSS and the anticipated arrival of the CME from 13 Oct late on day one
(16 Oct).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS and
possible weak CME effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for
day one (16 Oct) due to residual CH HSS conditions early before the
anticipated arrival of the weak CME from 13 October late on day one.
Quiet to active conditions are expected to persist on day 2 (17
Oct).  By day three (18 Oct), conditions are expected to decrease to
mostly quiet levels with unsettled periods as CH HSS and CME effects
wane.

SOLAR FLARE STORM aug 16 2013

Updated 08/16/2013 @ 20:55
Geomagnetic Storm Watch
A solar wind stream flowing past Earth remains above 700 km/s. A brief period of minor geomagnetic storming (Kp=5) was observed early this morning at high latitudes. Additional flareups of minor storming will be possible today, particularly if the Bz/IMF component decides to tip south for an extended period of time. Stay tuned for the latest information.
UPDATE: A solar wind stream flowing from a geoeffective coronal hole remains elevated near 700 km/s heading into Friday evening and the Bz/IMF component remains fairly stable. Only minor geomagnetic disturbances (Kp=4) have been detected today so far. There will remain a chance for isolated storm conditions (Kp=5) at high latitudes tonight. Be on the lookout for visible aurora should geomagnetic conditions allow.

Solar activity is currently low with only minor B-Class activity detected within the past 12 hours and an impulsive C1.3 flare moments ago at 12:47 UTC around Sunspot 1818. Both regions 1817 and 1818 have a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. There will remain a chance for C-Class flares and perhaps an isolated M-Class event. A small eruption registering as a C2.9 solar flare Thursday evening to the west of 1817 generated a faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) now visible in the updated Lasco C2 imagery. It does not appears to be Earth directed.
UPDATE: 1817 again appears to be weakening, but 1818 retains a delta configuration and is currently producing impulsive C-Class solar flares.
A small eruption registering as a C2.9 solar flare Thursday evening to the west of 1817 generated a faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) now visible in the updated Lasco C2 imagery. It does not appears to be Earth directed.

Solar Active Regions and Activity 17 May 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
17/0857Z from Region 1748 (N12E23). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels with a chance for X-class flares on days one,
two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).



IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
431 km/s at 17/0120Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1927Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2126Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 41 pfu at
17/1720Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 203 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 May), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (19 May) and quiet to active levels on day three
(20 May). Protons are expected to continue above threshold levels on
days 1-3 (18-20 May).


III.  Event probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    50/50/50
Proton     99/95/90
PCAF       red

Solar Flares Solar activity 11 12 2012

Several M-Class Solar Flares Solar activity picked up in a hurry with the emergence of Sunspot 1613 located in the southern hemisphere. A solar flare reaching M2.0 was detected at 23:28 UTC late monday, followed by an impulsive M6.0 event at 02:04 UTC early Tuesday morning

CME Impact

The ACE Spacecraft detected an interplanetary shock at 22:20 UTC Monday evening. Almost an hour later, A geomagnetic sudden impulse was detected by the ground based magnetometer located in Boulder, Colorado (16 nT @ 23:16 UTC). This signalled the passage of the Coronal Mass Ejection past Earth.

The impact has been fairly minor thus far. The Solar Wind is between 400 and 500 km/s and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is currently pointed North. The Kp index (4) is currently just below the G1 Geomagnetic Storm threshold. Should the Bz tip south for long durations, this could help intensify geomagnetic activity at high latitudes. Skywatchers at very high latitudes should be alert for Aurora.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4

Threshold Reached: 2012 Nov 13 0103 UTC

Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

WARNING: SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse

Observed: 2012 Nov 12 2316 UTC

Deviation: 16 nT

Station: Boulder

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Nov 12 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2012


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
12/1022Z from Region 1610 (S22W10). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 362 km/s at
12/0605Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 12/0724Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8.1 nT at 12/1934Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at mostly active with a chance for minor storm levels early on day
one (13 Nov) due to the arrival of the CMEs from 09/1524Z and 10/0539Z.
Activity is expected to decrease to generally unsettled levels on day 2
(14 Nov) as CME effects subside. On day 3 (15 Nov) conditions are
expected to return to mostly quiet levels.


III.  Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 144
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 145/145/150
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 118


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  013/015-007/010-006/005


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/05
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           25/30/10
Major-severe storm    05/25/05

Emergency Survival Following a Solar Storm

Solar Storms are coming, Emergency Survival knowledge, and Preparedness are key. You may be asking questions like, "Exactly what is a solar storm, and how can it affect me and my family?" "What emergency survival knowledge should I know about?" "If preparedness is the key, then what should I do?" In this four part series we are going to answer these questions and provide insight into the larger picture. We will give you the information that the media, and government are holding back. 

So what is a solar storm? Well solar as you might have guessed refers to an event involving our sun. A storm is defined as a violent disturbance of the atmosphere. But instead of the disturbance occurring in the form of thunder, lightening, or precipitation, it is in the form of charged particles that are ejected from the sun. These charged particles travel in large clouds that can carry up to ten billion tons of plasma. These clouds are also called Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), when they are released from the sun.

The particles in a CME (ions and electrons) are electrically charged, which means they also feel magnetic forces. Under normal circumstances these particles would be deflected by the Earth's magnetic field or our shield if you will, and the survival of our way of life would not be in jeopardy. According to researches sponsored by NASA our magnetic field often develops two holes that allow huge leaks. These leaks can allow up to twenty times more particles to pass. You might be thinking that this sounds like a bit of an emergency. Hold on we're not done yet. The number of particles breaching this shield depends on the orientation of the sun's magnetic field. When the Sun's and Earth's magnetic fields are in alignment the largest breaches occur. The sun's magnetic field changes direction every cycle.

In the summer of 1859, on August 28th, the magnetic fields of the sun and earth were in such an alignment. Solar observers of the time noted the development of numerous sunspots on the sun's surface. Sunspots are the originating point of CME's. They are regions of extremely intense magnetic fields that are intertwined and can suddenly release energy in a violent solar flare. There was no anticipated doom or emergency on September 1st, 1859, when the sun released a mammoth solar flare. For nearly an entire minute the intensity of sunlight produced at the region of the flare actually doubled. The CME resulting from the solar flare itself contained an extremely intense magnetic field that was oppositely charged to that of Earth's magnetic field. The result was the Earth's magnetic field was overwhelmed allowing charged particles to penetrate into the upper atmosphere.

There was very little need for solar storm preparedness in 1859. The only technology that was susceptible at that time was the Telegraph. The CME of 1859 or the Carrington Event, as it has come to be known, gave a jolt to some telegraph operators, and some of their offices even caught fire. So there was no emergency or threat to survival; life in 1859 pretty much went on as usual with the slight inconvenience of no telegraph messages for a while.

Imagine our society today, and how dependant we are on electronics, and power transmission. How would we react if suddenly all of that was taken away by one of these CMEs? According to a report by the National Academy of sciences, if such a storm occurred today, we could experience widespread power blackouts with permanent damage to many key transformers. A CME could very well occur during the next solar maximum and could be more intense than what happened in 1859. Our very survival could be on the line. "When", you ask, "is the next solar maximum?" We'll talk about that and what preparedness steps you can take to ensure your survival in upcoming papers. So stay tuned.

Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 Aug 2012

Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1542 (S14W46) produced
the largest event of the period, a C1/1f flare at 14/2232Z.  Region
1543 (N21W34) is the largest region on the disk and showed little
change while maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (16 - 18 August).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active
conditions on day 1 (16 August) due to effects from the 13 August
CME. Unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm
conditions are expected on Day 2 (17 August) due to effects from the
14 August CME. Quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active conditions are expected on Day 3 (18 August) as effects of
the CME begin to subside.

Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1532 (S19E14) and
new Region 1536 (S21E26) were responsible for the highest flares
during the period: a C8/1n flare at 30/1403Z and an M1/Sn at
30/1548Z respectively.  Analysis with magnetogram and white light
imagery determined that Region 1532 was actually two separate
regions.  New Region 1536 now encompasses the two larger spots
trailing Region 1532.  Another new spot group rotated onto the
northeast limb and was numbered Region 1535 (N18E64).  No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the
reporting period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares.  Regions 1532 and 1536 are the
most likely Regions to produce M-class activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with intervals of minor to
major storming observed at high latitudes during the periods ranging
from 30/0600 - 0900Z and from 30/1200 - 1800Z. Solar wind speed,
measured at the ACE spacecraft, increased from approximately 350 to
450 km/s, while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field had prolonged southward intervals near -7 nT.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (31 July).  Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on day 2 (01 August).  By approximately
mid-day on day 3 (02 August), quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected with isolated active periods possible due to effects from
the 28 July CME.

latest Solar flare storm and Geophysical Activity july 03 2012

Moderate to High Solar Activity
Sprawling Sunspot Cluster 1515 is now directly facing the Earth. This region is responsible for generating at least 5 M-Class solar flares within the past few days, including M5.6 and M3.8 events on Monday. So far on Tuesday, numerous C-Class flares have been detected including a C9.0 flare at 17:02 UTC. This region has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification and may produce a strong solar flare within the next 24 to 48 hours. So far the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) output has been directed mostly away from Earth.


Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1515 (S16W10)
remained the predominant flare producer with an M2/Sf flare at
02/2356Z and frequent C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 03/0342Z
associated with a 260 sfu Tenflare. This region, classified as an
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta, remained large and magnetically complex with
delta magnetic configurations within its interior and trailer spots.
Several coronal mass ejections (CME) were associated with flare
activity in Region 1515, but the bulk of the ejecta was directed
southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1513 (N16W22) retained
its beta-gamma magnetic configuration and displayed no significant
changes during the period. It produced isolated C-class flares
including a C8/Sf at 03/1441Z associated with a Type II radio sweep
(estimated shock velocity 1064 km/s). No new regions were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate through the period (04 - 06 July) with more M-class flares
expected from Region 1515.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with
active to minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. ACE solar
wind data indicated Earth remained within a negative-polarity
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speeds were in the 504
to 715 km/s range with a gradual decreasing trend. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was variable in the +4/-4 nT
range. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (04 -
06 July) with a chance for active levels due to persistent CH HSS
effects. Recent CME activity from Region 1515 is not expected to
significantly disturb the geomagnetic field.


Solar Update
Solar activity was high on Monday with multiple M-Class flares being detected around large Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere. The solar X-Ray background levels are currently hovering near the C1 level. There will remain the chance for a strong solar flare.

latest Solar wind storm and Geophysical Activity july 02 2012

M5.6 Solar Flare / CME Directed Mostly South
Gigantic Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere produced a strong M5.6 Solar Flare this morning at 10:52 UTC. This event generated a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) along with a Type II Sweep Frequency Event. This region is in a great location for Earth directed explosions. More information to follow.

CME Update: The M5.6 Solar Flare from earlier today did generate a blob of plasma that looks to be directed mostly towards the south and not towards Earth.

Two More M-Class Flares
Sunspot 1515 just produced another moderate solar flare, this time reaching M3.8 at 20:07 UTC. This large Sunspot cluster appears poised to generate a major solar flare within the next couple of days. Image by SDO.

UPDATE: Solar Activity continues at moderate to high levels. A minor C6 solar flare around Sunspot 1513 was just followed up with yet another M-Class flare around Sunspot 1515. The latest blast peaked at M2.0 and the time of the event was 23:56 UTC.

Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 02 1047 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1063 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 02 1046 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 02 1047 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 02 1048 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 380 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Updated 7/2/2012 @ 04:10 UTC
Solar Update / Aurora Watch
Solar activity continued at moderate levels on Sunday with a pair of M-Class flares around Sunspot 1513. The largest of these events was an M2.8 flare at 19:18 UTC Sunday afternoon. Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere is largest region on the visible solar disk, but has so far only produced C-Class solar flares. Both 1513 and 1515 retain Beta-Gamma magnetic configurations and may produce additonal M-Class flares on Monday.

The solar wind remains above 600 km/s and minor geomagnetic activity will be possible at very high latitudes. Visible aurora will be possible around the polar regions.

latest Solar flare Activity june 26 2012

Updated Jun 29 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N17E30)
produced an M2/1b at 29/0920Z along with occasional C-class flares.
Region 1515 (S17E43) grew significantly and is now considered a
Dkc-type region with a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region
1515 produced a few C-class flares during the past 24 hours.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (30
June-02 July).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (30 June) with a chance
for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled
to active levels on days two and three (01-02 July) with a chance
for minor storm levels due to CH HSS effects. 

latest Solar wind storm and Geophysical Activity june 26 2012

Solar activity is fairly low with low level C-Class flares being detected around new Sunspot 1512. This region continues to slowly expand. Another sunspot is rotating into view off the northeast limb and looks to be the return of old region 1493 (now numbered 1513). Finally a third sunspot region is also rotating into view off the southeast limb. There will continue to be a chance for C-Class flares.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (27 - 29 June).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with active to
minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. This activity was
associated with a minor increase in solar wind speeds (peak 496 km/s
at 26/0455Z) coupled with intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz
(maximum southward deflection -7 nT at 26/0113Z).

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (27 - 28
June). Field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels on day 3 (29 June) with a chance for active levels due to the
arrival of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal
hole high-speed stream.

Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1504 (S15W89)
produced a long duration B7 flare at 21/1814Z which was the largest
event of the period.  There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed
during the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly very low for the next three days.  There is a chance
for an isolated C-class flare from Region 1504 on day 1 (22 June) as
it approaches the west limb.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 22-24 June.

latest Solar wind storm and Geophysical Activity june 17 2012

Geomagnetic Storm Update
Geomagnetic Storming continues at very high latitudes as effects from an incoming CME shock continues on Sunday morning. The Kp index initially reached moderate G2 Geomagnetic Storm status (Kp=6). Currently as of this update, the Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is tipped south and a minor G1 Storm is in progress.

UPDATE: The Kp index dropped below the Minor Geomagnetic Storm threshold (Kp=4). Minor storm flareups at high latitudes could still take place for the remainder of the day.

Solar Update

Solar activity is currently at low levels with only C-Class flares detected within the past 24 hours. There is a very low threat for an X-Class flare within the next 48 hours. Sunspot 1504 remains a large Sunspot cluster with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z

to 16/2100Z: Solar activity remained low. The largest flare of the

past 24 hours was a C2/1n, which occurred at 16/0048Z from Region

1504 (S17W27). Region 1504 has continued to grow in area, but the

number of spots and magnetic complexity remained stable with a

beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1509 (S16W43) was

numbered today as an H-type group with an alpha magnetic

configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate during the period (17-19 June), with M-class flares

likely from Region 1504.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Three

sudden impulses were observed today at 0957Z, 2019Z, and 2115Z (28

nT, 28 nT, and 25 nT, respectively, as measured by the Boulder USGS

magnetometer). ACE data indicated three shock arrivals at around

0900Z, 1931Z, and 2031Z. Solar wind speed ACE increased to around

425 km/s and total field strength reached 10 nT with the first shock

passage, 450 km/s and 17 nT with the second, and 530 km/s and 34 nT

with the third. The greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 1955Z,

reached a maximum flux of 14.4 PFU at 2020Z, and remains in progress

at the time of forecast.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm

levels on day 1 (17 June) due to the CME arrivals. Conditions are

expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled on day 2 (18 June) as the

CME effects subside. On day 3 (19 June) conditions are expected to

be mostly quiet.

latest Solar flare and Geophysical Activity june 15 2012

On Thursday morning, Sunspot 1504 produced yet another long duration M-Class flare. The event peaked at M1.9 and generated an Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection which was visible in the STEREO Ahead COR2 images. A 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) was recorded measuring 1400sfu and lasted for 103 minutes. The plamsa cloud is expected to impact Earth later in the day on Saturday June 16. As per the latest WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction, the time of impact is expected around 18:00 UTC. Geomagnetic Storming will be possible at very high latitudes.

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1504 (S16E01)
produced a long duration M1/1n flare with maximum at 14/1435Z. This
event was associated with a 1400 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio
sweep. This region showed growth and maintained its
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. An associated CME was
observed in STEREO imagery at 14/1424Z with an estimated
plane-of-sky velocity between 900 and 1100 km/s.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 15-16 June. An increase to unsettled to
active levels is expected early on day 3 (17 June) due to combined
effects from both the 13 June and 14 June CMEs.

latest Solar flare and Geophysical Activity june 14 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1504 (S17E14)
produced a long duration M1/1n flare at 13/1317Z associated with a
260 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio sweep.  This region showed
growth in the leading spots and developed a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.  An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2
imagery at 13/1412Z with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity between
700 and 800 km/s.  Old Region 1507 was split into two regions as it
showed two distinct bipolar areas and now consists of Region 1507
(S25W13) and Region 1508 (S28W06).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 14-15 June.  An increase to unsettled levels
is expected mid-day on day 3 (16 June) due to a possible glancing
blow from todays CME.