latest solar flare activity - Strong G3 Geomagnetic Storm June 22 2015

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a Strong G3 Geomagnetic Storm watch beginning tomorrow (June 22). The expected storm is the result of a full halo CME observed early Sunday morning. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert for visual aurora during the next several days.

Solar activity during the past 24 hours was moderate. Region 2367 was responsible for the strongest X-Ray event of the period, an impulsive M3.8 flare peaking at 09:44 UTC. A noteworthy CME from this event is unlikely. The most interesting event of the past 24 hours was a dual M-Flare event around region 2371 during the early hours of June 21. An M2.0 flare was quickly followed up by an M2.6 event at 02:34 UTC.

 A full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) became visible soon after in coronagraph imagery and appears to be Earth directed. An impact to our geomagnetic field will be possible during the next 48-72 hours and could lead to geomagnetic storming at high latitudes. Additional isolated M-Flares will be possible around both regions 2367 and 2371 during the next day. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.

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Solar Active Regions and Activity feb 23 2014

Activity again reached moderate levels due to a low level M-Flare (M1.2) at 11:17 UTC Monday morning. Most flare activity, including the M1.2 flare, is being centered around former region 1967 which is now returning into view off the east limb. A dark core belonging to the long lasting active region is now visible in the latest imagery. It appears that 1967 is in an advanced state of decay and may no longer be a large threat for strong X-Class solar flares. We will have a better look at the entire region within the next 24 hours. Elsewhere, sunspot duo 1981-1982 remains stable as it transits the center of the visible disk. All other regions, including region 1987, remain quiet. There will continue to be a chance for an isolated M-Class event with regions 1981-1982 and returning region 1967 being the likely source. 

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/1205Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
589 km/s at 24/0550Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2224Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 23/2101Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (25 Feb, 27
Feb) and quiet levels on day two (26 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 171
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 175/180/180
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  009/008-006/005-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    20/05/25

Major Solar Flare activity - jan 7 2014

  Major Solar Flare Detected + CME
A major solar flare measuring X1.2 was detected on Tuesday afternoon peaking at 18:30 UTC. The source of the eruption was region 1943, with interaction between sunspot 1944. Because the flare appears to be long in duration, a coronal mass ejection is possible (see below). The blast site is in a great geoeffective position for Earth directed eruptions. Attached image by the Solar Dyanamics Observatory (SDO) below, captures a "wave" of plasma racing away from the blast site.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2014 Jan 07 1230 UTC

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels during the past 24 hours. Region 1944
(S09E06, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) remained the largest, most complex spot
group on the visible disk and produced the largest flare of the period,
a M7/2b flare at 07/1013 UTC. The flare had an associated 10 cm
Castelli-U radio burst with a peak flux of 409 sfu. This region
continued to exhibit growth, mainly in its leader spots, and produced
several low-level C-class flares throughout the period. Region 1946
(N09E01, Dac/beta-gamma) was the second largest region on the visible
disk and produced the second largest flare of the period, a M1/1n flare
at 07/0353 UTC. It showed signs of consolidation in the trailer spots as
well as separation between the intermediate and trailer spots, and was
responsible for additional low-level C-class flares. The remaining five
spot groups on the visible disk were either stable or showed signs of
decay. Analysis of any coronal mass ejection activity associated with
either the M1 or the M7 flare will be conducted as imagery becomes
available.
   
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels (R1-Minor to
R2-Moderate) for the next three days (07-09 Jan) with a chance for
X-class (R3-Strong) flares from active Regions 1944 and 1946.  

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Jan 07 1817 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1064 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
Updated 01/07/2014 @ 15:30 UTC
CME Sweeps Past Earth
The ACE Spacecraft detected a solar wind increase to above 400km/s at 14:25 UTC. A geomagnetic sudden impulse measuring 7 nT was detected by the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer at 15:15 UTC. This signals the passage of an expected coronal mass ejection (CME) past our planet. The initial impact appears to be weak.

latest current solar flare storm activity 02 Jul 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
02/1749Z from Region 1785 (S11E62). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (03 Jul, 04 Jul)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (05 Jul).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 498 km/s at
01/2136Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4429 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (04 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Jul).


III.  Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M    10/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

Current Solar activity is at high levels oct 23 2012

Solar Update / Sunspot 1598

 
Solar activity is currently at high levels with one X-Class Flare, one M-Class Flare and several C-Class flares detected within the past 24 hours. Almost all of the activity has been centered around active Sunspot 1598 located in the southeast quadrant. There will remain a chance for moderate solar flares on Tuesday with a possibility of a major solar flare within the next 24-48 hours. 

On This Day in 2003

 
On this day back in 2003, A large Sunspot numbered 486 rotated into view off the eastern limb. It was responsible for numerous major solar flares which directly lead to what many remember as the 2003 Halloween Solar Storms. Extreme Geomagnetic activity resulted and this generated one of the best visible Aurora displays of all time. Currently Sunspot 1598 is following the same path, however it not yet anywhere near the complexity of old Sunspot 486.

X1.8 Solar Flare An impulsive, yet strong Solar Flare, just took place around Sunspot 1598. The latest event measured X1.8 and peaked at 03:17 UTC Tuesday morning. Impulsive solar flares do not usually produce large Coronal Mass Ejections, however I will provide updates as new information comes in. The image and movie below both captures the flare in progress.

Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Sympathetic activity
between Regions 1530 (S19E28) and 1532 (S20E53) produced a M2/1f
x-ray event at 1726Z on 27 July. The event was accompanied by a
Tenflare (340 sfu), type II and IV radio sweeps. The type II was
reported with an estimated speed of 2099 km/s, however a radial
speed estimate of the CME obtained from STEREO B coronagraph was
measured near 500 km/s. Initial analysis suggests that the transient
will not likely have a geoeffective trajectory. New Region 1533
(S28E18) developed today and was numbered. There were some
preliminary observations indicating a new region (not yet numbered)
rotating onto the disk in the southern hemisphere, behind Region
1532.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next 3 days (28-30 July).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on day 1 (28 July) as the onset of
coronal hole (CH) high speed stream effects are forecasted. The
field should remain mostly unsettled on day 2 (29 July) with
possible nighttime active levels from substorms. Conditions should
recover from unsettled to active levels to mostly quiet on day 3 (30
July) as CH effects wane.

latest Solar flare activity july 26 2012

latest Solar flare activity july 26 2012

increasing chance for M-Class flare activity around Sunspot 1530. Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for moderate activity depending on sunspot growth within the next several days.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  New Region 1530 (S19E68) was
responsible for multiple low level C-class flares.  The largest was
a C4/Sf at 24/1905Z.  SDO and STEREO-B EUVI 195 imagery show
brightening behind the northeast and southeast limbs, suggesting the
presence of more active regions yet to rotate onto the visible disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated minor storm period at high latitudes from 24/1200 - 1500Z. 
Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft showed an increase in
solar wind speed from approximately 450 km/s to 580 km/s by 24/0830Z
before decreasing to 500 km/s by the end of the period.  This is
likely due to the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high
speed stream.  The greater than 10 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit that began at 23/1545Z, reached a maximum flux
of 12 pfu at 23/2145Z and continued to fluctuate near the 10 pfu
threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active periods on day 1 (25 July) due to persistent effects from the
coronal hole high speed stream.  Mostly quiet conditions are
expected for days 2 - 3 (26 - 27 July).

III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     30/01/01
PCAF       yellow

Visable aurora july 14 2012 solar flare storm

Visable aurora july 14 2012 solar flare storm
 If you’re far enough north, you might catch a glimpse of the magnificent aurora borealis. The northern lights sky show will be more intense tonight because the sun released a large solar flare on Thursday and Friday, and it’s just starting to affect Earth on Saturday morning.

The Display: Shows the intensity and location of the aurora from the solar flare as expected for the time shown at the bottom of the map. This forecast is based on current solar wind conditions and the average time for the solar wind to propagate from the ACE satellite at L1 to Earth.
The model produces an estimate of the intensity of the aurora. In this product a linear relationship between intensity and viewing probability is assumed. This relationship was validated by comparison with data from the UVI instrument on the NASA POLAR Satellite .
The sunlit side of Earth is indicated by the lighter blue of the ocean. The sub-solar point is also shown as a yellow dot but only if the sub-solar point is in the view of the choosen image. The day-night line or terminator is shown as a yellow line. Note that the aurora will not be visible during daylight hours and it may be an hour or more before sunrise or after sunset that the aurora can be seen from the ground.
____ The red line about 1000 km equatorward of the aurora indicates how far away viewers on the ground might see the aurora assuming good viewing conditions.

This is a big solar flare, classified by astronomers as “extreme,” but according to spaceweather.com, it’s barely into that extreme range. Just a few ticks less intense, and it would be ranked in the innocuous “M” (moderate) range.
Nevertheless, this latest solar flare still might be powerful enough for you to see those lovely northern lights tonight, even from latitudes as far south as New York. Will anything else be affected? No, you don’t have to worry about electronics being destroyed, even if you own an Earth-orbiting satellite.
 

latest Solar storm news and solar flare activity july 14 2012

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 199
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1914 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1915 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 14 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.


An incoming Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is expected this morning and could lead to Geomagnetic Storming at high latitudes. The plasma cloud was generated by an X1.4 Solar Flare on Thursday around Sunspot 1520. Continue to monitor the ACE Spacecraft Data for detection of the expected interplanetary shock. In the graph below, you will be looking for a sharp increase in solar wind speed (yellow line).
UPDATE: As of 13:30 UTC (9:30 EST), ACE has yet to detect a sharp increase in solar wind speed. The Proton Levels streaming past Earth are showing some signs of fluctuation however, and this is known to happen in advance of an incoming CME cloud.

 CME Update: The WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction has been updated and is calling for the CME Plasma Cloud to sweep past Earth by 12:00 UTC (8:00am EST) early Saturday morning (July 14). The Goddard Space Center prediction has it forecast for 3 hours earlier. The latest model shows a Solar Wind increase to near 700 km/s.
 

latest Solar storm news and solar flare activity july 13 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1521 (S21W34) has been the most active region,
producing multiple low-level C-class events. Region 1520 (S16W23)
has decayed in area but remains the most magnetically complex region
on the disk, still classified as a beta-gamma-delta. The other four
numbered active sunspot regions have remained quiet and rather
stable. A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 13/0224Z. After
analysis, the CME was determined to not be geoeffective.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (14-16 July), as
Regions 1520 and 1521 continue to evolve and rotate toward the west
limb.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels with a slight chance
for isolated periods at major storm levels on day one (14 July), due
the arrival of the 12 July CME. Unsettled to active levels with a
chance for minor storm periods are expected on day two (15 July), as
effects of the CME continue. A return to predominantly quiet levels
is expected on day three (16 July).

latest Solar storm news and solar flare activity july 11 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1519 (S15W18), 1520
(S17E06) and 1521 (S22W07) all produced C-class flares during the
period.  The largest event was a C9/1n at 11/0831Z from Region 1521.
Region 1520 indicated consolidation and rotation in its trailer
spots while developing additional sheer.  The region remained a
complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.  During the past 24
hours, Region 1521 elongated along its E/W axis and developed a
gamma configuration in its trailer spots.  The region is now
classified as an E-type beta-gamma group.  A 20 degree long filament
erupted in the NE quadrant of the disk at about 11/0930Z.  The
eruption occurred along a channel centered near N22E22.  Limited
LASCO imagery hinted at a possible CME that lifted off the NNE limb
likely associated with the filament eruption.  Further analysis of
this CME is ongoing.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a slight chance for X-class events for the next three
days (12 - 14 July).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated high latitude minor to major storm intervals from
11/0600 - 1200Z.  ACE solar data indicated wind velocities remained
steady at about 500 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the next
three days (12 - 14 July).

latest Solar flare storm and Geophysical Activity july 03 2012

Moderate to High Solar Activity
Sprawling Sunspot Cluster 1515 is now directly facing the Earth. This region is responsible for generating at least 5 M-Class solar flares within the past few days, including M5.6 and M3.8 events on Monday. So far on Tuesday, numerous C-Class flares have been detected including a C9.0 flare at 17:02 UTC. This region has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification and may produce a strong solar flare within the next 24 to 48 hours. So far the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) output has been directed mostly away from Earth.


Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1515 (S16W10)
remained the predominant flare producer with an M2/Sf flare at
02/2356Z and frequent C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 03/0342Z
associated with a 260 sfu Tenflare. This region, classified as an
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta, remained large and magnetically complex with
delta magnetic configurations within its interior and trailer spots.
Several coronal mass ejections (CME) were associated with flare
activity in Region 1515, but the bulk of the ejecta was directed
southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1513 (N16W22) retained
its beta-gamma magnetic configuration and displayed no significant
changes during the period. It produced isolated C-class flares
including a C8/Sf at 03/1441Z associated with a Type II radio sweep
(estimated shock velocity 1064 km/s). No new regions were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate through the period (04 - 06 July) with more M-class flares
expected from Region 1515.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with
active to minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. ACE solar
wind data indicated Earth remained within a negative-polarity
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speeds were in the 504
to 715 km/s range with a gradual decreasing trend. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was variable in the +4/-4 nT
range. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (04 -
06 July) with a chance for active levels due to persistent CH HSS
effects. Recent CME activity from Region 1515 is not expected to
significantly disturb the geomagnetic field.


Solar Update
Solar activity was high on Monday with multiple M-Class flares being detected around large Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere. The solar X-Ray background levels are currently hovering near the C1 level. There will remain the chance for a strong solar flare.

latest Solar wind storm and Geophysical Activity july 02 2012

M5.6 Solar Flare / CME Directed Mostly South
Gigantic Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere produced a strong M5.6 Solar Flare this morning at 10:52 UTC. This event generated a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) along with a Type II Sweep Frequency Event. This region is in a great location for Earth directed explosions. More information to follow.

CME Update: The M5.6 Solar Flare from earlier today did generate a blob of plasma that looks to be directed mostly towards the south and not towards Earth.

Two More M-Class Flares
Sunspot 1515 just produced another moderate solar flare, this time reaching M3.8 at 20:07 UTC. This large Sunspot cluster appears poised to generate a major solar flare within the next couple of days. Image by SDO.

UPDATE: Solar Activity continues at moderate to high levels. A minor C6 solar flare around Sunspot 1513 was just followed up with yet another M-Class flare around Sunspot 1515. The latest blast peaked at M2.0 and the time of the event was 23:56 UTC.

Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 02 1047 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1063 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 02 1046 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 02 1047 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 02 1048 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 380 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Updated 7/2/2012 @ 04:10 UTC
Solar Update / Aurora Watch
Solar activity continued at moderate levels on Sunday with a pair of M-Class flares around Sunspot 1513. The largest of these events was an M2.8 flare at 19:18 UTC Sunday afternoon. Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere is largest region on the visible solar disk, but has so far only produced C-Class solar flares. Both 1513 and 1515 retain Beta-Gamma magnetic configurations and may produce additonal M-Class flares on Monday.

The solar wind remains above 600 km/s and minor geomagnetic activity will be possible at very high latitudes. Visible aurora will be possible around the polar regions.

latest Solar flare Activity june 26 2012

Updated Jun 29 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N17E30)
produced an M2/1b at 29/0920Z along with occasional C-class flares.
Region 1515 (S17E43) grew significantly and is now considered a
Dkc-type region with a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region
1515 produced a few C-class flares during the past 24 hours.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (30
June-02 July).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (30 June) with a chance
for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled
to active levels on days two and three (01-02 July) with a chance
for minor storm levels due to CH HSS effects. 

latest Solar wind storm and Geophysical Activity june 26 2012

Solar activity is fairly low with low level C-Class flares being detected around new Sunspot 1512. This region continues to slowly expand. Another sunspot is rotating into view off the northeast limb and looks to be the return of old region 1493 (now numbered 1513). Finally a third sunspot region is also rotating into view off the southeast limb. There will continue to be a chance for C-Class flares.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (27 - 29 June).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with active to
minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. This activity was
associated with a minor increase in solar wind speeds (peak 496 km/s
at 26/0455Z) coupled with intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz
(maximum southward deflection -7 nT at 26/0113Z).

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (27 - 28
June). Field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels on day 3 (29 June) with a chance for active levels due to the
arrival of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal
hole high-speed stream.

Latest Solar Storm News and Solar Flare Activity June 23 2012

Latest Solar Storm News and Solar Flare Activity June 23 2012

An eruption took place early Saturday morning off the northwest limb resulting in a bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Because of the location, the plasma cloud will be directed away from Earth.

Solar Update
Solar activity on the Earth facing side of the Sun should continue at very low levels this weekend. New sunspot 1511 was numbered on Friday, but so far remains a small and magnetically simple region.

latest Solar storm news and solar flare activity june 18 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1504 (S15W53) produced
a few low level C-flares, the largest of which was a C1/Sf at
17/2139Z.  Region 1504 decreased in total area and ended the day at
690 millionths.  Regions 1505 (S13W53) and Region 1506 (N08W42)
showed signs of decay.  There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed
during the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a chance of isolated M-class activity from Region 1504.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. 
Active levels were reached at the beginning of the period from
17/2100Z to 18/0300Z.  Minor storm levels were reached from 18/0300Z
to 18/0600Z.  This elevated activity was due to persistent effects
from the 13 and 14 June CMEs.   The remainder of the period showed a
steady decline to mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (19 June). Quiet levels
are expected on 20 - 21 June.

III.  Event Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jun 118
Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun  115/110/095
90 Day Mean        18 Jun 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  036/055
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  008/010-006/006-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           30/15/10
Major-severe storm    25/05/05

latest Solar wind storm and Geophysical Activity june 17 2012

Geomagnetic Storm Update
Geomagnetic Storming continues at very high latitudes as effects from an incoming CME shock continues on Sunday morning. The Kp index initially reached moderate G2 Geomagnetic Storm status (Kp=6). Currently as of this update, the Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is tipped south and a minor G1 Storm is in progress.

UPDATE: The Kp index dropped below the Minor Geomagnetic Storm threshold (Kp=4). Minor storm flareups at high latitudes could still take place for the remainder of the day.

Solar Update

Solar activity is currently at low levels with only C-Class flares detected within the past 24 hours. There is a very low threat for an X-Class flare within the next 48 hours. Sunspot 1504 remains a large Sunspot cluster with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z

to 16/2100Z: Solar activity remained low. The largest flare of the

past 24 hours was a C2/1n, which occurred at 16/0048Z from Region

1504 (S17W27). Region 1504 has continued to grow in area, but the

number of spots and magnetic complexity remained stable with a

beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1509 (S16W43) was

numbered today as an H-type group with an alpha magnetic

configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate during the period (17-19 June), with M-class flares

likely from Region 1504.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Three

sudden impulses were observed today at 0957Z, 2019Z, and 2115Z (28

nT, 28 nT, and 25 nT, respectively, as measured by the Boulder USGS

magnetometer). ACE data indicated three shock arrivals at around

0900Z, 1931Z, and 2031Z. Solar wind speed ACE increased to around

425 km/s and total field strength reached 10 nT with the first shock

passage, 450 km/s and 17 nT with the second, and 530 km/s and 34 nT

with the third. The greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 1955Z,

reached a maximum flux of 14.4 PFU at 2020Z, and remains in progress

at the time of forecast.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm

levels on day 1 (17 June) due to the CME arrivals. Conditions are

expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled on day 2 (18 June) as the

CME effects subside. On day 3 (19 June) conditions are expected to

be mostly quiet.

latest Solar flare and Geophysical Activity june 15 2012

On Thursday morning, Sunspot 1504 produced yet another long duration M-Class flare. The event peaked at M1.9 and generated an Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection which was visible in the STEREO Ahead COR2 images. A 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) was recorded measuring 1400sfu and lasted for 103 minutes. The plamsa cloud is expected to impact Earth later in the day on Saturday June 16. As per the latest WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction, the time of impact is expected around 18:00 UTC. Geomagnetic Storming will be possible at very high latitudes.

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1504 (S16E01)
produced a long duration M1/1n flare with maximum at 14/1435Z. This
event was associated with a 1400 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio
sweep. This region showed growth and maintained its
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. An associated CME was
observed in STEREO imagery at 14/1424Z with an estimated
plane-of-sky velocity between 900 and 1100 km/s.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 15-16 June. An increase to unsettled to
active levels is expected early on day 3 (17 June) due to combined
effects from both the 13 June and 14 June CMEs.

latest Solar flare and Geophysical Activity june 14 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1504 (S17E14)
produced a long duration M1/1n flare at 13/1317Z associated with a
260 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio sweep.  This region showed
growth in the leading spots and developed a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.  An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2
imagery at 13/1412Z with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity between
700 and 800 km/s.  Old Region 1507 was split into two regions as it
showed two distinct bipolar areas and now consists of Region 1507
(S25W13) and Region 1508 (S28W06).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 14-15 June.  An increase to unsettled levels
is expected mid-day on day 3 (16 June) due to a possible glancing
blow from todays CME.