Solar and Geophysical Activity Report of 09 Mar 2012

Strong Solar Flare
Sunspot 1429 is now in a great geoeffective position for Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections. This region just produced a strong M6.3 Solar Flare at 03:53 UTC Friday morning. A movie presentation is now shown below. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is now seen in the latest Lasco C2 and STEREO Behind COR2 images. More images will be needed to determine how large of a plasma cloud it is, and if it will be Earth directed.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 09 0343 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1285 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Updated 3/9/2012 @ 02:40 UTC
CME Impact / Geomagnetic Storm Subsides
The ACE Spacecraft detected a shock passage and a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse measuring 58 nT at the Boulder Station was recorded at 11:05 UTC Thursday morning. The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) caused by the X5.4 Solar Flare did impact Earths geomagnetic field.

Minor Geomagnetic Storming (Kp=5) persisted for many hours today, but the Kp Index is now below the G1 minor storm level. Depending on the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), there will be a chance for additional storm flareups over the hours ahead. Visible Aurora will remain possible at very high latitudes.

Bz Update The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has been pointing mostly to the north and this has kept the geomagnetic storm at minor levels thus far. Should the Bz begin to point south for long durations, this may help intensify the storm.

Strong Solar Wind The current Solar Wind speed continues to gradually decrease and is now near 650 km/s, as per the SOHO Spacecraft data. As you can tell by the updated graph below, the solar wind spiked to above 800 km/s when the CME shock swept past SOHO. 

Updated Mar 08 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A C7/Sf flare was observed
from Region 1428 (S17W19).  Region 1429 (N17E01) remains a large Ekc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification. 
Possible separation was observed within the intermediate area of the
spot group.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels with a chance for further X-class activity
from Region 1429 for the next three days (09 - 11 March).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions
with major storm periods observed at high latitudes during 08/1200 -
1800Z.  At 08/1045Z, a 40 nT shock was observed at the ACE
spacecraft from the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME)
associated with the X5 flare that occurred early on 07 March.  A
sudden impulse was observed shortly after at the Boulder
magnetometer at 08/1105Z (59 nT).  Minor storm periods were observed
as a result of the CME arrival.  The greater than 10 MeV proton
event that began at 07/0510Z increased to a maximum of 6530 pfu at
08/1115Z as a result of the CME shock.  The greater than 100 MeV
proton event that began at 07/0405Z, and reached a maximum value of
69.3 pfu at 07/1525Z, has slowly declined.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor to major
storm periods possible on day 1 (09 March) as the Earth continues to
be under the influence of the CME from 07 March.  Quiet to unsettled
conditions with isolated active periods possible are expected for
days 2 - 3 (10 - 11 March).