latest solar flare activity - Strong G3 Geomagnetic Storm June 22 2015

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a Strong G3 Geomagnetic Storm watch beginning tomorrow (June 22). The expected storm is the result of a full halo CME observed early Sunday morning. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert for visual aurora during the next several days.

Solar activity during the past 24 hours was moderate. Region 2367 was responsible for the strongest X-Ray event of the period, an impulsive M3.8 flare peaking at 09:44 UTC. A noteworthy CME from this event is unlikely. The most interesting event of the past 24 hours was a dual M-Flare event around region 2371 during the early hours of June 21. An M2.0 flare was quickly followed up by an M2.6 event at 02:34 UTC.

 A full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) became visible soon after in coronagraph imagery and appears to be Earth directed. An impact to our geomagnetic field will be possible during the next 48-72 hours and could lead to geomagnetic storming at high latitudes. Additional isolated M-Flares will be possible around both regions 2367 and 2371 during the next day. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.

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X4.9 Solar Flare 02/24/2014 - possibility of a coronal mass ejection CME

The X4.9 Solar Flare was associated with a Type II radio emission with a velocity of nearly 2000 km/s. This indicates the possibility of a coronal mass ejection. A 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 3700 sfu and lasting 85 minutes was also recorded. Despite newly renumbered region 1990 being close to the limb, it is still possible to be flanked by a CME from this location if it happens to be large enough. More updates to follow if a CME is associated. Attached video by SDO.


ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1972 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.


SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0042 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
End Time: 2014 Feb 25 0107 UTC
Duration: 85 minutes
Peak Flux: 3700 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 171 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

latest Solar flare activity and geomagnetic storms update 10/17/2013

Solar activity is currently at relatively low levels with numerous C-Class flares detected around sprawling sunspot 1861. The active region continues to evolve magnetically as it rotates towards the west limb. There will remain a chance for an isolated M-Class event within the next 24 hours. All other regions, including formerly active sunspot 1865 remain stable. A new sunspot is forming quickly in the southeast quadrant and should be monitored for further growth. Old sunspot 1850 rotated back into view off the east limb and appears to be stable at this time. 

Solar activity was low. Region 1865 (S22W37, Dso/beta-delta) and Region
1861 (S10W57, Dhc/beta-gamma) were responsible for multiple C-class
flares. Region 1861 produced a C1/Sf flare at 16/0920 UTC with
associated weak types II (est. shock speed 548 km/s) and IV radio
sweeps. After analysis, the associated CME was determined to have a
narrow south-western trajectory unlikely to be geoeffective.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class (R1-R2
Minor to Moderate) flare for the forecast period (17-19 Oct). The most
likely regions for M-class flare activity continue to be Regions 1861
and 1865.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (17-19 Oct). 
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated the
remnant presence of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Speed
decreased from near 550 km/s at the beginning of the period to just over
460 km/s by the end of the period. IMF total field held steady at
around 4 nT, while IMF Bz intermittently dipped southward briefly
as low as -4 nT. Phi angle remained in a positive (Away) orientation
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind variability is expected to persist for the next two
days (17-18 Oct) from combined effects of residual CH HSS and the
anticipated arrival of the CME from 13 Oct, now expected early on day
one (17 Oct). A return to ambient conditions is forecast for day three
(19 Oct).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period at 16/00-03 UTC due to residual CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a
slight chance for minor storm (G1-minor) levels late on day one (17 Oct)
with the anticipated arrival of the weak CME from 13 October. Day two
(18 Oct) should expect a decrease, with quiet to unsettled periods
expected as CH HSS and CME effects wane. A return to mostly quiet
conditions is forecast for day three (19 Oct).

SOLAR FLARE STORM aug 16 2013

Updated 08/16/2013 @ 20:55
Geomagnetic Storm Watch
A solar wind stream flowing past Earth remains above 700 km/s. A brief period of minor geomagnetic storming (Kp=5) was observed early this morning at high latitudes. Additional flareups of minor storming will be possible today, particularly if the Bz/IMF component decides to tip south for an extended period of time. Stay tuned for the latest information.
UPDATE: A solar wind stream flowing from a geoeffective coronal hole remains elevated near 700 km/s heading into Friday evening and the Bz/IMF component remains fairly stable. Only minor geomagnetic disturbances (Kp=4) have been detected today so far. There will remain a chance for isolated storm conditions (Kp=5) at high latitudes tonight. Be on the lookout for visible aurora should geomagnetic conditions allow.

Solar activity is currently low with only minor B-Class activity detected within the past 12 hours and an impulsive C1.3 flare moments ago at 12:47 UTC around Sunspot 1818. Both regions 1817 and 1818 have a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. There will remain a chance for C-Class flares and perhaps an isolated M-Class event. A small eruption registering as a C2.9 solar flare Thursday evening to the west of 1817 generated a faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) now visible in the updated Lasco C2 imagery. It does not appears to be Earth directed.
UPDATE: 1817 again appears to be weakening, but 1818 retains a delta configuration and is currently producing impulsive C-Class solar flares.
A small eruption registering as a C2.9 solar flare Thursday evening to the west of 1817 generated a faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) now visible in the updated Lasco C2 imagery. It does not appears to be Earth directed.

Solar Active Regions and Activity

Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2012


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0233Z from newly numbered Region 1614(N15E72). There were two other
newly numbered regions on the disk as well: 1613 (S21E57) and 1615
(N09E61). A non-earth directed CME was observed off of the southwest
limb on LASCO C2 imagery at 10/2224Z and was associated with the
eruption of a large prominence. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
with a chance for moderate levels on days one, two, and three (12 Nov,
13 Nov, 14 Nov).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 352 km/s at
11/2010Z. Total IMF reached 5.4 nT at 11/1104Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.2 nT at 11/1150Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be initially quiet but is expected to become mostly active with a
chance for minor storm levels beginning about mid-day on day 1 (12 Nov)
and partway into day 2 (13 Nov) due to the arrival of the CMEs from
09/1524Z and 10/0539Z. Activity is expected to decrease to generally
unsettled levels on day 3 (14 Nov).

solar flare activity in 2012 oct 22

Sunspot 1598 is back at it again, this time producing a moderate M5.0 Solar Flare peaking at 18:51 UTC. The flare was responsible for a brief R2 Level Radio Blackout. So far a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is not visible

Updated  Oct 22 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 1598 (S10E60)
produced an M5/1f event at 22/1851Z.  Region 1598 is the most
threatening region on the disk and appears to be a Beta magnetic
class.  However, the proximity of Region 1598 to the East limb has
made the magnetic classification uncertain.  Region 1596 (N07E20) is
also moderately sized and has some magnetic complexity, but only
managed to produce a small C-class event.  The other regions on the
disk either remained stable or decayed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with occasional M-class flares, and a slight chance
for an isolated X-class flare for the next three days (23 - 25 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours.  Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, remained steady throughout
the day at approximately 375 km/s.  The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged from +/-2 nT. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23 - 25 Oct).

III.  Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     05/05/10
PCAF       green

latest solar flare activity sept 5 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1564 (S14E01 -
Esi/beta-gamma) produced occasional C-class flares including a C6 at
05/0347Z and a C7/Sn at 05/0806Z, neither of which were associated
with significant radio emission. Region 1564 showed gradual spot and
penumbral decay during the period, but retained a beta-gamma
configuration due to polarity mixing in the vicinity of its
intermediate spots. Region 1560 (N04W58 - Eai/beta-gamma-delta)
showed minor spot loss in its trailer portion during the period. It
retained a delta within its intermediate spots, but the delta
appeared to be dissipating. The remaining spotted region were
unremarkable. No new regions were numbered. No Earth-directed CME
activity occurred during the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (06 - 08 September) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare during days 1 - 2.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels
with a brief period of severe storm levels at high latitudes. An
interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 04/2203Z
indicating the arrival of the CMEs observed on 02 September. Field
activity increased to major storm levels during 05/0000 - 0300Z
following the shock, then decreased to minor storm levels during
05/0300 - 0600Z. A further decrease to active levels occurred during
05/0300 - 0900Z. Quiet to unsettled levels occurred during the rest
of the period with active to minor storm levels detected at high
latitudes.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (06 -
08 September) with a chance for active levels on day 1 due to
possible weak coronal hole high-speed stream effects.

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    25/25/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1532 (S19E14) and
new Region 1536 (S21E26) were responsible for the highest flares
during the period: a C8/1n flare at 30/1403Z and an M1/Sn at
30/1548Z respectively.  Analysis with magnetogram and white light
imagery determined that Region 1532 was actually two separate
regions.  New Region 1536 now encompasses the two larger spots
trailing Region 1532.  Another new spot group rotated onto the
northeast limb and was numbered Region 1535 (N18E64).  No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the
reporting period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares.  Regions 1532 and 1536 are the
most likely Regions to produce M-class activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with intervals of minor to
major storming observed at high latitudes during the periods ranging
from 30/0600 - 0900Z and from 30/1200 - 1800Z. Solar wind speed,
measured at the ACE spacecraft, increased from approximately 350 to
450 km/s, while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field had prolonged southward intervals near -7 nT.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (31 July).  Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on day 2 (01 August).  By approximately
mid-day on day 3 (02 August), quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected with isolated active periods possible due to effects from
the 28 July CME.

latest Solar flare storm and Geophysical Activity july 04 2012

M4.7 + M4.6 Flares
The 4th of July fireworks continue. A moderate solar flare reaching M4.6 peaked at 22:09 UTC Wednesday evening. The source was active Sunspot 1515. Moderate to Strong solar flares are now taking place frequently and there is now an increased chance for a major X-Class solar flare within the next 24-48 hours. Below is an updated list of today's solar flare events.

UPDATE: An impulsive solar flare reaching M4.7 was just detected at 03:36 UTC Thursday morning.

M4.7 @ 03:36 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M2.2 @ 02:42 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M2.4 @ 01:10 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M4.6 @ 22:09 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M1.8 @ 16:39 UTC - (Sunspot 1513) "Earth directed CME possible"
M2.3 @ 12:24 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M5.3 @ 09:55 UTC - (Sunspot 1515) "Non Earth directed CME generated"

Updated 7/4/2012 @ 23:10 UTC
Sunspot 1513 Erupts
Yet another M-Class flare, however this time it was centered around Sunspot 1513 in the northern hemisphere. The latest event measured M1.8 @ 16:39 UTC. A nice eruption is captured by SDO below.

latest Solar flare storm and Geophysical Activity july 03 2012

Moderate to High Solar Activity
Sprawling Sunspot Cluster 1515 is now directly facing the Earth. This region is responsible for generating at least 5 M-Class solar flares within the past few days, including M5.6 and M3.8 events on Monday. So far on Tuesday, numerous C-Class flares have been detected including a C9.0 flare at 17:02 UTC. This region has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification and may produce a strong solar flare within the next 24 to 48 hours. So far the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) output has been directed mostly away from Earth.


Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1515 (S16W10)
remained the predominant flare producer with an M2/Sf flare at
02/2356Z and frequent C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 03/0342Z
associated with a 260 sfu Tenflare. This region, classified as an
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta, remained large and magnetically complex with
delta magnetic configurations within its interior and trailer spots.
Several coronal mass ejections (CME) were associated with flare
activity in Region 1515, but the bulk of the ejecta was directed
southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1513 (N16W22) retained
its beta-gamma magnetic configuration and displayed no significant
changes during the period. It produced isolated C-class flares
including a C8/Sf at 03/1441Z associated with a Type II radio sweep
(estimated shock velocity 1064 km/s). No new regions were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate through the period (04 - 06 July) with more M-class flares
expected from Region 1515.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with
active to minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. ACE solar
wind data indicated Earth remained within a negative-polarity
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speeds were in the 504
to 715 km/s range with a gradual decreasing trend. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was variable in the +4/-4 nT
range. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (04 -
06 July) with a chance for active levels due to persistent CH HSS
effects. Recent CME activity from Region 1515 is not expected to
significantly disturb the geomagnetic field.


Solar Update
Solar activity was high on Monday with multiple M-Class flares being detected around large Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere. The solar X-Ray background levels are currently hovering near the C1 level. There will remain the chance for a strong solar flare.

latest Solar wind storm and Geophysical Activity july 02 2012

M5.6 Solar Flare / CME Directed Mostly South
Gigantic Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere produced a strong M5.6 Solar Flare this morning at 10:52 UTC. This event generated a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) along with a Type II Sweep Frequency Event. This region is in a great location for Earth directed explosions. More information to follow.

CME Update: The M5.6 Solar Flare from earlier today did generate a blob of plasma that looks to be directed mostly towards the south and not towards Earth.

Two More M-Class Flares
Sunspot 1515 just produced another moderate solar flare, this time reaching M3.8 at 20:07 UTC. This large Sunspot cluster appears poised to generate a major solar flare within the next couple of days. Image by SDO.

UPDATE: Solar Activity continues at moderate to high levels. A minor C6 solar flare around Sunspot 1513 was just followed up with yet another M-Class flare around Sunspot 1515. The latest blast peaked at M2.0 and the time of the event was 23:56 UTC.

Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 02 1047 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1063 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 02 1046 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 02 1047 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 02 1048 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 380 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Updated 7/2/2012 @ 04:10 UTC
Solar Update / Aurora Watch
Solar activity continued at moderate levels on Sunday with a pair of M-Class flares around Sunspot 1513. The largest of these events was an M2.8 flare at 19:18 UTC Sunday afternoon. Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere is largest region on the visible solar disk, but has so far only produced C-Class solar flares. Both 1513 and 1515 retain Beta-Gamma magnetic configurations and may produce additonal M-Class flares on Monday.

The solar wind remains above 600 km/s and minor geomagnetic activity will be possible at very high latitudes. Visible aurora will be possible around the polar regions.

latest Solar flare Activity june 26 2012

Updated Jun 29 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N17E30)
produced an M2/1b at 29/0920Z along with occasional C-class flares.
Region 1515 (S17E43) grew significantly and is now considered a
Dkc-type region with a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region
1515 produced a few C-class flares during the past 24 hours.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (30
June-02 July).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (30 June) with a chance
for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled
to active levels on days two and three (01-02 July) with a chance
for minor storm levels due to CH HSS effects. 

latest Solar wind storm and Geophysical Activity june 26 2012

Solar activity is fairly low with low level C-Class flares being detected around new Sunspot 1512. This region continues to slowly expand. Another sunspot is rotating into view off the northeast limb and looks to be the return of old region 1493 (now numbered 1513). Finally a third sunspot region is also rotating into view off the southeast limb. There will continue to be a chance for C-Class flares.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (27 - 29 June).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with active to
minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. This activity was
associated with a minor increase in solar wind speeds (peak 496 km/s
at 26/0455Z) coupled with intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz
(maximum southward deflection -7 nT at 26/0113Z).

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (27 - 28
June). Field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels on day 3 (29 June) with a chance for active levels due to the
arrival of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal
hole high-speed stream.

Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jun 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly quiet during the period (25 - 27 June).

latest Solar wind storm and Geophysical Activity june 17 2012

Geomagnetic Storm Update
Geomagnetic Storming continues at very high latitudes as effects from an incoming CME shock continues on Sunday morning. The Kp index initially reached moderate G2 Geomagnetic Storm status (Kp=6). Currently as of this update, the Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is tipped south and a minor G1 Storm is in progress.

UPDATE: The Kp index dropped below the Minor Geomagnetic Storm threshold (Kp=4). Minor storm flareups at high latitudes could still take place for the remainder of the day.

Solar Update

Solar activity is currently at low levels with only C-Class flares detected within the past 24 hours. There is a very low threat for an X-Class flare within the next 48 hours. Sunspot 1504 remains a large Sunspot cluster with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z

to 16/2100Z: Solar activity remained low. The largest flare of the

past 24 hours was a C2/1n, which occurred at 16/0048Z from Region

1504 (S17W27). Region 1504 has continued to grow in area, but the

number of spots and magnetic complexity remained stable with a

beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1509 (S16W43) was

numbered today as an H-type group with an alpha magnetic

configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate during the period (17-19 June), with M-class flares

likely from Region 1504.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Three

sudden impulses were observed today at 0957Z, 2019Z, and 2115Z (28

nT, 28 nT, and 25 nT, respectively, as measured by the Boulder USGS

magnetometer). ACE data indicated three shock arrivals at around

0900Z, 1931Z, and 2031Z. Solar wind speed ACE increased to around

425 km/s and total field strength reached 10 nT with the first shock

passage, 450 km/s and 17 nT with the second, and 530 km/s and 34 nT

with the third. The greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 1955Z,

reached a maximum flux of 14.4 PFU at 2020Z, and remains in progress

at the time of forecast.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm

levels on day 1 (17 June) due to the CME arrivals. Conditions are

expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled on day 2 (18 June) as the

CME effects subside. On day 3 (19 June) conditions are expected to

be mostly quiet.

latest Solar flare and Geophysical Activity june 15 2012

On Thursday morning, Sunspot 1504 produced yet another long duration M-Class flare. The event peaked at M1.9 and generated an Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection which was visible in the STEREO Ahead COR2 images. A 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) was recorded measuring 1400sfu and lasted for 103 minutes. The plamsa cloud is expected to impact Earth later in the day on Saturday June 16. As per the latest WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction, the time of impact is expected around 18:00 UTC. Geomagnetic Storming will be possible at very high latitudes.

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1504 (S16E01)
produced a long duration M1/1n flare with maximum at 14/1435Z. This
event was associated with a 1400 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio
sweep. This region showed growth and maintained its
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. An associated CME was
observed in STEREO imagery at 14/1424Z with an estimated
plane-of-sky velocity between 900 and 1100 km/s.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 15-16 June. An increase to unsettled to
active levels is expected early on day 3 (17 June) due to combined
effects from both the 13 June and 14 June CMEs.

latest Solar flare and Geophysical Activity june 14 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1504 (S17E14)
produced a long duration M1/1n flare at 13/1317Z associated with a
260 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio sweep.  This region showed
growth in the leading spots and developed a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.  An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2
imagery at 13/1412Z with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity between
700 and 800 km/s.  Old Region 1507 was split into two regions as it
showed two distinct bipolar areas and now consists of Region 1507
(S25W13) and Region 1508 (S28W06).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 14-15 June.  An increase to unsettled levels
is expected mid-day on day 3 (16 June) due to a possible glancing
blow from todays CME.

Latest solar flare report April 16 2012

Latest Solar Flare Report April 16 2012

The returning region off the northeast limb looks to be providing us with some Solar Fireworks. A massive eruption that registered as an M1.7 event, peaked at 17:45 UTC on Monday afternoon. This will most likely launch a blob of plasma into space. Due to the location of this event, the cloud will probably be directed away from Earth.

The active region off the northeast limb is now rotating into view and initially appeared to be spotless. Currently at 13:45 UTC a Sunspot is just now coming into view. We will get a better look at this region as the day progresses.

Sunspot 1455 which is turning closer to the western limb with every passing hour, did form some new spots on Sunday. This region may produce C-Class flares. Sunspot cluster 1459 in the southeast quadrant covers a large area but has yet to produce a noteworthy flare. There will remain a small risk for an M-Class event.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
An M1 flare was observed from a region around the east limb at
16/1745Z. Region 1459 (S15E56) continued to grow and is now
considered an Fhi-beta type group. A filament erupted at
approximately 16/1300Z near S43E33. The associated CME is not
expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days
(17-19 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (17-19 April).

Solar and Geophysical Activity Report of 09 Mar 2012

Strong Solar Flare
Sunspot 1429 is now in a great geoeffective position for Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections. This region just produced a strong M6.3 Solar Flare at 03:53 UTC Friday morning. A movie presentation is now shown below. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is now seen in the latest Lasco C2 and STEREO Behind COR2 images. More images will be needed to determine how large of a plasma cloud it is, and if it will be Earth directed.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 09 0343 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1285 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Updated 3/9/2012 @ 02:40 UTC
CME Impact / Geomagnetic Storm Subsides
The ACE Spacecraft detected a shock passage and a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse measuring 58 nT at the Boulder Station was recorded at 11:05 UTC Thursday morning. The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) caused by the X5.4 Solar Flare did impact Earths geomagnetic field.

Minor Geomagnetic Storming (Kp=5) persisted for many hours today, but the Kp Index is now below the G1 minor storm level. Depending on the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), there will be a chance for additional storm flareups over the hours ahead. Visible Aurora will remain possible at very high latitudes.

Bz Update The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has been pointing mostly to the north and this has kept the geomagnetic storm at minor levels thus far. Should the Bz begin to point south for long durations, this may help intensify the storm.

Strong Solar Wind The current Solar Wind speed continues to gradually decrease and is now near 650 km/s, as per the SOHO Spacecraft data. As you can tell by the updated graph below, the solar wind spiked to above 800 km/s when the CME shock swept past SOHO. 

Updated Mar 08 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A C7/Sf flare was observed
from Region 1428 (S17W19).  Region 1429 (N17E01) remains a large Ekc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification. 
Possible separation was observed within the intermediate area of the
spot group.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels with a chance for further X-class activity
from Region 1429 for the next three days (09 - 11 March).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions
with major storm periods observed at high latitudes during 08/1200 -
1800Z.  At 08/1045Z, a 40 nT shock was observed at the ACE
spacecraft from the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME)
associated with the X5 flare that occurred early on 07 March.  A
sudden impulse was observed shortly after at the Boulder
magnetometer at 08/1105Z (59 nT).  Minor storm periods were observed
as a result of the CME arrival.  The greater than 10 MeV proton
event that began at 07/0510Z increased to a maximum of 6530 pfu at
08/1115Z as a result of the CME shock.  The greater than 100 MeV
proton event that began at 07/0405Z, and reached a maximum value of
69.3 pfu at 07/1525Z, has slowly declined.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor to major
storm periods possible on day 1 (09 March) as the Earth continues to
be under the influence of the CME from 07 March.  Quiet to unsettled
conditions with isolated active periods possible are expected for
days 2 - 3 (10 - 11 March).

Latest Report of Solar Storms, Flare and Geophysical Activity news

Updated Feb 20 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. There were three C-class flares
during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a C4/Sf at 0509Z
from Region 1421 (N18E32). Region 1422 (N16W11) produced the other
two C-flares and is currently the largest group on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with some isolated
storm periods at high latitudes. Solar wind data from ACE indicated
the influence of a high speed stream from a coronal hole. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods on the
first day (21 Feb) due to continued effects from the high speed
stream. A decrease to mostly quiet levels is predicted for the
second day (22 Feb) and quiet levels are expected to continue for
the third day (23 Feb).