latest Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Aug 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1548 (N19E86) produced
an M5/Sf flare at 18/0102Z, accompanied by a Tenflare (150 pfu). An
M1/Sn flare from the same region followed at 18/0323Z, also
accompanied by a Tenflare (120 pfu). Finally, an M2/1N occurred at
18/1607Z. Several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in
the past 24 hours, none appear to have a geoeffective component.
SDO 304 imagery showed a filament eruption in the vicinity of Region
1543 (N23W74) around 17/16Z. A CME was subsequently observed in
LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 17/1836Z, and in LASCO C3 imagery at
17/1918Z. A second filament eruption and CME was observed near
Region 1543 between 17/22Z and 18/0034Z. It was visible in STEREO-B
COR2 imagery at 18/0110Z and in LASCO C3 imagery at 18/0454Z. This
CME was directed well north of the ecliptic.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with moderate activity likely for the next three days (19-21
August).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at the
ACE spacecraft ranged between about 350-420 km/s during the period.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
-8 and +12 nT. Solar wind density at ACE increased sharply after
18/19Z. The geomagnetic field reached active levels during the last
period (18-21Z) coincident with a change to the positive sector and
the arrival of the corotating active region.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (19-21
August) as a corotating interaction region and coronal hole high
speed stream become geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1532 (S19E14) and
new Region 1536 (S21E26) were responsible for the highest flares
during the period: a C8/1n flare at 30/1403Z and an M1/Sn at
30/1548Z respectively.  Analysis with magnetogram and white light
imagery determined that Region 1532 was actually two separate
regions.  New Region 1536 now encompasses the two larger spots
trailing Region 1532.  Another new spot group rotated onto the
northeast limb and was numbered Region 1535 (N18E64).  No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the
reporting period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares.  Regions 1532 and 1536 are the
most likely Regions to produce M-class activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with intervals of minor to
major storming observed at high latitudes during the periods ranging
from 30/0600 - 0900Z and from 30/1200 - 1800Z. Solar wind speed,
measured at the ACE spacecraft, increased from approximately 350 to
450 km/s, while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field had prolonged southward intervals near -7 nT.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (31 July).  Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on day 2 (01 August).  By approximately
mid-day on day 3 (02 August), quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected with isolated active periods possible due to effects from
the 28 July CME.

latest current solar flare storm activity july 9 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1515 (S15W89) produced
the largest event of the period, a C7/Sf at 09/0830Z.  Region 1520
(S17E33) continued its growth phase in area coverage, spot count and
magnetic complexity, but remained relatively quiet through the
period.  New Region 1521 (S22E21) was numbered as a D-type group.  A
large filament eruption was observed in the SW quadrant at about
09/0930Z.  At the time of its eruption, the 23 degree long filament
was centered near S35W32.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the previous 24 hours.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days
(10 - 12 July).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with
high latitude major storm intervals.  This activity was most likely
a result of CME effects from the 04 July M1 event.  ACE solar data
indicated wind velocities ranged between 400 to 450 km/s.  The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was generally south
throughout the period ranging between -5 to -10 nT from about
09/0600Z through the end of the period.  Interplanetary field
strength was at 10 to 12 nT through most of the period.  A greater
than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit began at 09/0130Z,
reached a maximum of 19 pfu at 09/0430Z and ended at 09/1445Z.  This
weak SEP event was most likely associated with the 08 July M6/1n
flare from Region 1515.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods on day one (10 July) due to possible weak effects
from the 06 July CME.  A return to mostly quiet conditions is
expected for days two and three (11 - 12 July).

III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 174
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul  165/160/155
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  015/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  018/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  013/015-007/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/05

latest current solar flare storm activity july 9 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1515 (S15W89) produced
the largest event of the period, a C7/Sf at 09/0830Z.  Region 1520
(S17E33) continued its growth phase in area coverage, spot count and
magnetic complexity, but remained relatively quiet through the
period.  New Region 1521 (S22E21) was numbered as a D-type group.  A
large filament eruption was observed in the SW quadrant at about
09/0930Z.  At the time of its eruption, the 23 degree long filament
was centered near S35W32.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the previous 24 hours.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days
(10 - 12 July).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with
high latitude major storm intervals.  This activity was most likely
a result of CME effects from the 04 July M1 event.  ACE solar data
indicated wind velocities ranged between 400 to 450 km/s.  The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was generally south
throughout the period ranging between -5 to -10 nT from about
09/0600Z through the end of the period.  Interplanetary field
strength was at 10 to 12 nT through most of the period.  A greater
than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit began at 09/0130Z,
reached a maximum of 19 pfu at 09/0430Z and ended at 09/1445Z.  This
weak SEP event was most likely associated with the 08 July M6/1n
flare from Region 1515.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods on day one (10 July) due to possible weak effects
from the 06 July CME.  A return to mostly quiet conditions is
expected for days two and three (11 - 12 July).

III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 174
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul  165/160/155
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  015/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  018/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  013/015-007/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/05

latest current solar flare storm activity july 6 2012

latest current solar flare storm activity july 6 2012

X1.1 Solar Flare / Minor Radiation Storm
Sunspot 1515 has been teasing us with countless M-Class solar flares and it finally did what it has been threatening to do over the past several days. A major X1.1 Solar Flare was detected at 23:08 UTC. This event triggered a 10cm Radio Burst and a Type IV Sweep Frequency Event. The blast did generate a Coronal Mass Ejection, but it looks to be headed south and to the west. This should have little impact on Earth. The protons blasted away from the flare site are currently streaming past Earth and a S1 Minor Radiation Storm is in progress.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 06 2322 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 06 2304 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 06 2306 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 06 2306 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 520 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Added 7/6/2012 @ 18:35 UTC
Aurora Watch
Currently our Geomagnetic Field is fairly quiet and visible aurora would be possible only around the polar regions. An increase in geomagnetic activity will be possible starting tomorrow should a CME sweep past our planet as predicted. A potential for minor geomagnetic storming watch was issued today by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 20 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G1 (Minor) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Jul 07

Updated 7/7/2012 @ 04:55 UTC
Solar Update / Large Sunspots
Solar activity is currently strong with an X1.1 Solar Flare detected around Sunspot 1515. A Coronal Mass Ejection was produced, but does not look to be Earth direcfted. While Sunspot 1515 currently has all the attention, we should also continue to monitor the large new sunspot that rotated into view off the southeast limb. This region did produce an M1.3 Solar Flare at 18:55 UTC Friday.

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Large New Sunspot (Saturday) - SDO

---

NOAA Solar Report - [SIDC Report

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Jul 06 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1515 (S18W50)
continued to produce M-class flares, the largest an M2/Sn at
06/0140Z. The region continued to grow to 900 millionths and
maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 1513
(N15W65) showed slight decay and is now considered an Hsx-alpha type
spot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class flares for the next three days
(07-09 July).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
conditions on days one and two (07-08 July) due to combined effects
from the CMEs observed on 03 and 04 July. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day three (09 July) as effects from the

latest Solar flare storm and Geophysical Activity july 04 2012

M4.7 + M4.6 Flares
The 4th of July fireworks continue. A moderate solar flare reaching M4.6 peaked at 22:09 UTC Wednesday evening. The source was active Sunspot 1515. Moderate to Strong solar flares are now taking place frequently and there is now an increased chance for a major X-Class solar flare within the next 24-48 hours. Below is an updated list of today's solar flare events.

UPDATE: An impulsive solar flare reaching M4.7 was just detected at 03:36 UTC Thursday morning.

M4.7 @ 03:36 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M2.2 @ 02:42 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M2.4 @ 01:10 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M4.6 @ 22:09 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M1.8 @ 16:39 UTC - (Sunspot 1513) "Earth directed CME possible"
M2.3 @ 12:24 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M5.3 @ 09:55 UTC - (Sunspot 1515) "Non Earth directed CME generated"

Updated 7/4/2012 @ 23:10 UTC
Sunspot 1513 Erupts
Yet another M-Class flare, however this time it was centered around Sunspot 1513 in the northern hemisphere. The latest event measured M1.8 @ 16:39 UTC. A nice eruption is captured by SDO below.

latest Solar flare storm and Geophysical Activity july 03 2012

Moderate to High Solar Activity
Sprawling Sunspot Cluster 1515 is now directly facing the Earth. This region is responsible for generating at least 5 M-Class solar flares within the past few days, including M5.6 and M3.8 events on Monday. So far on Tuesday, numerous C-Class flares have been detected including a C9.0 flare at 17:02 UTC. This region has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification and may produce a strong solar flare within the next 24 to 48 hours. So far the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) output has been directed mostly away from Earth.


Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1515 (S16W10)
remained the predominant flare producer with an M2/Sf flare at
02/2356Z and frequent C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 03/0342Z
associated with a 260 sfu Tenflare. This region, classified as an
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta, remained large and magnetically complex with
delta magnetic configurations within its interior and trailer spots.
Several coronal mass ejections (CME) were associated with flare
activity in Region 1515, but the bulk of the ejecta was directed
southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1513 (N16W22) retained
its beta-gamma magnetic configuration and displayed no significant
changes during the period. It produced isolated C-class flares
including a C8/Sf at 03/1441Z associated with a Type II radio sweep
(estimated shock velocity 1064 km/s). No new regions were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate through the period (04 - 06 July) with more M-class flares
expected from Region 1515.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with
active to minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. ACE solar
wind data indicated Earth remained within a negative-polarity
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speeds were in the 504
to 715 km/s range with a gradual decreasing trend. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was variable in the +4/-4 nT
range. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (04 -
06 July) with a chance for active levels due to persistent CH HSS
effects. Recent CME activity from Region 1515 is not expected to
significantly disturb the geomagnetic field.


Solar Update
Solar activity was high on Monday with multiple M-Class flares being detected around large Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere. The solar X-Ray background levels are currently hovering near the C1 level. There will remain the chance for a strong solar flare.

latest Solar wind storm and Geophysical Activity july 02 2012

M5.6 Solar Flare / CME Directed Mostly South
Gigantic Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere produced a strong M5.6 Solar Flare this morning at 10:52 UTC. This event generated a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) along with a Type II Sweep Frequency Event. This region is in a great location for Earth directed explosions. More information to follow.

CME Update: The M5.6 Solar Flare from earlier today did generate a blob of plasma that looks to be directed mostly towards the south and not towards Earth.

Two More M-Class Flares
Sunspot 1515 just produced another moderate solar flare, this time reaching M3.8 at 20:07 UTC. This large Sunspot cluster appears poised to generate a major solar flare within the next couple of days. Image by SDO.

UPDATE: Solar Activity continues at moderate to high levels. A minor C6 solar flare around Sunspot 1513 was just followed up with yet another M-Class flare around Sunspot 1515. The latest blast peaked at M2.0 and the time of the event was 23:56 UTC.

Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 02 1047 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1063 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 02 1046 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 02 1047 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 02 1048 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 380 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Updated 7/2/2012 @ 04:10 UTC
Solar Update / Aurora Watch
Solar activity continued at moderate levels on Sunday with a pair of M-Class flares around Sunspot 1513. The largest of these events was an M2.8 flare at 19:18 UTC Sunday afternoon. Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere is largest region on the visible solar disk, but has so far only produced C-Class solar flares. Both 1513 and 1515 retain Beta-Gamma magnetic configurations and may produce additonal M-Class flares on Monday.

The solar wind remains above 600 km/s and minor geomagnetic activity will be possible at very high latitudes. Visible aurora will be possible around the polar regions.

latest Solar flare Activity june 26 2012

Updated Jun 29 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N17E30)
produced an M2/1b at 29/0920Z along with occasional C-class flares.
Region 1515 (S17E43) grew significantly and is now considered a
Dkc-type region with a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region
1515 produced a few C-class flares during the past 24 hours.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (30
June-02 July).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (30 June) with a chance
for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled
to active levels on days two and three (01-02 July) with a chance
for minor storm levels due to CH HSS effects. 

latest Solar wind storm and Geophysical Activity june 26 2012

Solar activity is fairly low with low level C-Class flares being detected around new Sunspot 1512. This region continues to slowly expand. Another sunspot is rotating into view off the northeast limb and looks to be the return of old region 1493 (now numbered 1513). Finally a third sunspot region is also rotating into view off the southeast limb. There will continue to be a chance for C-Class flares.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (27 - 29 June).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with active to
minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. This activity was
associated with a minor increase in solar wind speeds (peak 496 km/s
at 26/0455Z) coupled with intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz
(maximum southward deflection -7 nT at 26/0113Z).

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (27 - 28
June). Field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels on day 3 (29 June) with a chance for active levels due to the
arrival of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal
hole high-speed stream.

latest Solar wind storm and Geophysical Activity june 17 2012

Geomagnetic Storm Update
Geomagnetic Storming continues at very high latitudes as effects from an incoming CME shock continues on Sunday morning. The Kp index initially reached moderate G2 Geomagnetic Storm status (Kp=6). Currently as of this update, the Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is tipped south and a minor G1 Storm is in progress.

UPDATE: The Kp index dropped below the Minor Geomagnetic Storm threshold (Kp=4). Minor storm flareups at high latitudes could still take place for the remainder of the day.

Solar Update

Solar activity is currently at low levels with only C-Class flares detected within the past 24 hours. There is a very low threat for an X-Class flare within the next 48 hours. Sunspot 1504 remains a large Sunspot cluster with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z

to 16/2100Z: Solar activity remained low. The largest flare of the

past 24 hours was a C2/1n, which occurred at 16/0048Z from Region

1504 (S17W27). Region 1504 has continued to grow in area, but the

number of spots and magnetic complexity remained stable with a

beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1509 (S16W43) was

numbered today as an H-type group with an alpha magnetic

configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate during the period (17-19 June), with M-class flares

likely from Region 1504.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Three

sudden impulses were observed today at 0957Z, 2019Z, and 2115Z (28

nT, 28 nT, and 25 nT, respectively, as measured by the Boulder USGS

magnetometer). ACE data indicated three shock arrivals at around

0900Z, 1931Z, and 2031Z. Solar wind speed ACE increased to around

425 km/s and total field strength reached 10 nT with the first shock

passage, 450 km/s and 17 nT with the second, and 530 km/s and 34 nT

with the third. The greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 1955Z,

reached a maximum flux of 14.4 PFU at 2020Z, and remains in progress

at the time of forecast.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm

levels on day 1 (17 June) due to the CME arrivals. Conditions are

expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled on day 2 (18 June) as the

CME effects subside. On day 3 (19 June) conditions are expected to

be mostly quiet.

latest Solar flare and Geophysical Activity june 15 2012

On Thursday morning, Sunspot 1504 produced yet another long duration M-Class flare. The event peaked at M1.9 and generated an Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection which was visible in the STEREO Ahead COR2 images. A 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) was recorded measuring 1400sfu and lasted for 103 minutes. The plamsa cloud is expected to impact Earth later in the day on Saturday June 16. As per the latest WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction, the time of impact is expected around 18:00 UTC. Geomagnetic Storming will be possible at very high latitudes.

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1504 (S16E01)
produced a long duration M1/1n flare with maximum at 14/1435Z. This
event was associated with a 1400 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio
sweep. This region showed growth and maintained its
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. An associated CME was
observed in STEREO imagery at 14/1424Z with an estimated
plane-of-sky velocity between 900 and 1100 km/s.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 15-16 June. An increase to unsettled to
active levels is expected early on day 3 (17 June) due to combined
effects from both the 13 June and 14 June CMEs.

latest Solar flare and Geophysical Activity june 14 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1504 (S17E14)
produced a long duration M1/1n flare at 13/1317Z associated with a
260 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio sweep.  This region showed
growth in the leading spots and developed a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.  An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2
imagery at 13/1412Z with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity between
700 and 800 km/s.  Old Region 1507 was split into two regions as it
showed two distinct bipolar areas and now consists of Region 1507
(S25W13) and Region 1508 (S28W06).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 14-15 June.  An increase to unsettled levels
is expected mid-day on day 3 (16 June) due to a possible glancing
blow from todays CME.

latest Solar flare and Geophysical Activity june13 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1506 (N11E38), 1504
(S17E28), and 1507 (S27E02) were the most active regions on the
disk.  Each region was responsible for multiple C-flares during the
period.  The largest of these came from Region 1506 which produced a
C2 flare at 12/0315Z.  All three of these regions have shown signs
of growth.  There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the
period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  There is a chance for an isolated M-class event from
Region 1504.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.  Minor
storm levels were reached from 11/2100Z to 12/0300Z.  This was
followed by an active period from 12/0300Z to 12/0600Z.  Solar wind
observations indicated a sustained interval of negative Bz from
11/1500Z to 12/0200Z with peak values around -10nT.  In addition,
the data indicated a solar sector boundary crossing starting late on
the 11th.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (June 13).  Quiet levels
are expected for 14-15 June.

SOLAR FLARE STORM Activity May 19 2012

Updated 5/19/2012
Solar Update
Solar activity has been low with only low level C-Class activity detected around mostly departing region 1476 off the western limb. All other sunspot regions are currently stable. New sunspot 1486 was numbered on Friday.

Updated May 18 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest flare
was a C3 at 18/0823Z from old Region 1476 (N10, L=180), which
rotated off the disk.  A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA
304 imagery beginning at 18/0510Z near Region 1482 (N15W17).  An
associated CME was observed in STEREO A COR 2 imagery beginning at
18/0709Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of approximately 482
km/s.  The majority of the ejecta appeared to be slightly north of
the ecliptic plane, however a glancing blow is likely.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare all three days
(19 - 21 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 100 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at
17/0200Z, reached a maximum of 20.4 pfu at 17/0230Z and ended at
17/1725Z.  The greater than 10 MeV proton event is currently
hovering close to the 10 pfu threshold (S1).

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods on day 1 (19 May) due to a possible shock arrival from the
17 May CME.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (20
May).  Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (21 May). 
There is a slight chance for shock enhancement of the greater than
10 MeV protons above 10 pfu on day 1.

SOLAR FLARE STORM Activity May 13 2012

Updated 5/13/2012 @ 12:30 UTC
Solar Update
Solar activity is currently low with only C-Class flares detected within the past 24 hours. The largest of these flares was a C7.0 at 08:14 UTC Sunday morning. Sunspot 1476 continues to decay and the threat for strong solar flares will decline because of this. All other regions are currently stable.

 The Sun Captured Locally
Below is a great image of the Sun and AR1476 taken by a local Sun photographer named Raymond Lalonde. The photo was taken yesterday from here in Eastern Ontario, Canada.

Updated May 13 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1476 (N09W33) continues to be the most dominant region
on the disk with an area of 840 millionths and is magnetically
classified as beta-gamma-delta. However, Region 1476 is currently in
a decay phase and only producing C-class x-ray events. Region 1479
(N15E40) was split into two sunspot groups after magnetogram
analysis, with the leader group retaining  the Region 1479 number,
and the trailer group being numbered Region 1482 (N14E51). Three new
regions were also numbered today, Region 1481 (S10E61), Region 1483
(S27E51) and Region 1484 (N10E75).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(14 - 16 May) as Region 1476 continues to rotate towards the west
limb of the solar disk.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated periods at minor storm levels observed at high latitudes.
Measurements, by the ACE spacecraft, indicate the waning effects of
the latest coronal hole high speed stream, as solar wind speeds
decreased from 600 km/s to around 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods on day one (14 May), as a CME, observed leaving the solar
disk on 12 May, is forecasted to become geoeffective. Most of the
mass of this CME event is expected to miss Earth, thus quiet to
unsettled levels with a chance of active levels, are also expected
on day two (15 May). As effects of the CME wane, a return to quiet
to unsettled levels is expected on day three (16 May).

Report of Latest Solar Wind Storm Activity May 5 2012

Two M-Class Flares / Sunspot 1476
Solar activity increased to moderate levels thanks to newly numbered Sunspot 1476. This new region rotated into view off the northeast limb and has so far produced a pair of M-Class flares. The latest event was an M1.3 at 23:01 UTC Saturday evening. solar activity is again increasing.

Solar Update
Solar activity increased somewhat due to the new sunspot rotating into view off the northeast limb. This region should be numbered 1476 on Saturday. There will be a chance for an M-Class event. All other regions have been fairly quiet with the exception of a C2.0 flare around Sunspot 1471 in the southern hemisphere. 

Updated May 05 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels. New Region 1476
(N09E67) produced several C-class flares along with an M1/Sn at
05/1329Z. The regions proximity to the limb makes spot
classification difficult, however, it is currently considered a
Dko-beta type group. Region 1469 (S26W77) continues to produce low
level C-class activity as it rotates around the west limb. A model
run was completed after the forecast was issued yesterday to include
the CME observed off the southwest limb yesterday. It was determined
that the CME has a slight Earth-directed component. A second CME,
first visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 05/0309Z, appeared to be
associated with a C1 flare from Region 1469 observed at 04/2350Z.
Although both CMEs have a weak Earth-directed component, neither are
expected to cause significant geomagnetic activity. A third CME
associated with a C2/Sf flare from Region 1470 (S15W31) observed at
05/0639Z, first became visible in SDO AIA imagery at approximately
05/0600Z. Due to the source location, it is probable that the CME is
Earth-directed and a model run is currently in progress to determine
geoeffectiveness.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares for the next three days (06-08
May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (06 May). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are possible on days two and three (07-08 May) due to
weak effects from the CMEs observed on 04 May.

Latest Solar Flare Storm Activity update may 1 2012

Solar Update

 
Numerous C-Class flares were observed within the past 12 hours. A long duration C3.9 event  peaked at 07:38 UTC Monday morning and was located near departing Sunspot 1465 off the southwest limb. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is seen in the latest STEREO Ahead COR2 images. This plasma cloud will most likely miss Earth. Another flare measuring C5.6 near the same region followed at 10:23 UTC. Sunspot 1471 in the southeast quadrant produced a C6.0 flare at 10:41 UTC. There will continue to be a chance for C-Class flares and perhaps an isolated M-Class event.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Before rotating off the west limb of the solar disk, Region
1465 (S18W95) produced a long duration C3 x-ray flare at 30/0738Z.
Associated with this event were both a Type II radio sweep
(estimated shock velocity of 645 km/s) and a non-Earth directed CME.
Region 1471 (S22E45) also produced multiple C-class events and
appears to be growing in sunspot area and magnetic complexity as it
rotates further into view. No new sunspot regions were numbered
today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days (01 - 03 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained at
nominal levels throughout the summary period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (01
- 02 May) as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into a
geoeffective position. A return to quiet levels is expected on day
three (03 May) as the effects of the high speed stream wane.

III.  Event Probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 114
Predicted   01 May-03 May  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  007/008-007/008-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

Todays Solar Flare Activity April 24 2012 Causing Geomagnetic Storm Aurora

C-Class Flare and CME
A couple of new sunspots are rotating into view off the eastern limb. One of these regions located off the northeast limb produced a C3.7 Solar Flare at 07:45 UTC this morning and was associated with a Type II Sweep Frequency Event and CME. Due to the spots location, the plasma cloud should be directed mostly towards the east.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Apr 24 0748 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1029 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 active regions on the disk, with 5
regions having sunspots. The spotted regions on the disk all
remained rather quiet and stable throughout the period. However,
around plage Region 1461 (N10W19), two C-class events were observed
today with associated Earth directed CMEs.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class x-ray events for the next three
days (24 - 26 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the
past 24 hours. Observations made by the ACE spacecraft, around
23/0200Z, indicated the arrival of a CME that lifted off the solar
disk on 19 April. Solar wind velocities increased from 350 - 400
km/s with the total IMF reaching around 18 nT. The Boulder
magnetometer measured a 31 nT sudden impulse at 23/0325Z in
conjunction with the CME arrival here at Earth. From then on, active
to minor storm levels were observed due to multiple periods of
sustained negative Bz.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with a slight chance for a
minor storm on day 1 (24 April) as effects from the CME wane and a
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moves in. Quiet to active
levels are expected on day two (25 April) as the effects of the CH
HSS continue. An increase to quiet to minor storm levels are
expected on day three (26 April) as the two CMEs, observed earlier
in the period, are expected to become geoeffective.

Report of latest solar flare activity April 20 2012

Despite the amount of large Sunspots on the Earth facing side of the Sun, solar activity has been fairly low over the past 24 hours. None of the current visible sunspots are magnetically complex (at this time). There will remain the chance for an isolated M-Class event. The sunspot totals are also helping to increase the daily Solar Flux readings. The solar flux ended near 140 on Thursday.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Apr 19 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C7 x-ray flare at 19/1126Z associated with Types II and IV
radio sweeps and a non-Earth-directed CME. This event may have
originated in old Region 1455 (N05, L=206), now about two days
beyond the west limb. Regions 1460 (N16W01) and 1463 (S26W49) each
produced a low-level C-class flare. Region 1460 showed spot growth
in its intermediate portion. Region 1462 (S24W31) produced a C1
flare at 19/1515Z associated with a CME that may have had an
Earthward component. Further analysis is required to determine if
the CME is likely to be geoeffective. New Region 1464 (N23E01,
Bxo-Beta) was numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 3 (20 - 22 April) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (20 April) with
a chance for brief active levels due to a recurrent solar sector
boundary crossing. Quiet levels are expected during days 2- 3 (21 -
22 April).