Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Jul 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Sympathetic activity between Regions 1530 (S19E28) and 1532 (S20E53) produced a M2/1f x-ray event at 1726Z on 27 July. The event was accompanied by a Tenflare (340 sfu), type II and IV radio sweeps. The type II was reported with an estimated speed of 2099 km/s, however a radial speed estimate of the CME obtained from STEREO B coronagraph was measured near 500 km/s. Initial analysis suggests that the transient will not likely have a geoeffective trajectory. New Region 1533 (S28E18) developed today and was numbered. There were some preliminary observations indicating a new region (not yet numbered) rotating onto the disk in the southern hemisphere, behind Region 1532. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels for the next 3 days (28-30 July). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on day 1 (28 July) as the onset of coronal hole (CH) high speed stream effects are forecasted. The field should remain mostly unsettled on day 2 (29 July) with possible nighttime active levels from substorms. Conditions should recover from unsettled to active levels to mostly quiet on day 3 (30 July) as CH effects wane.
