Latest Solar Flare Activity: March 2012

Latest Solar Flare Activity: latest news of Solar Flare Activity March 2012:

Big sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another major flare. This one is the strongest yet, an X5-class eruption on March 7th at 00:28 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme UV flash:

This eruption hurled a bright CME into space. First-look data from STEREO-B are not sufficient to determine if the cloud is heading for Earth. Our best guess is "probably, yes, but not directly toward Earth." A glancing blow to our planet's magnetosphere is possible on March 8th or 9th. Stay tuned for updates

latest news of Solar Flare Activity March 2012

Big sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another major flare. This one is the strongest yet, an X5-class eruption on March 7th at 00:28 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme UV flash:

This eruption hurled a bright CME into space. First-look data from STEREO-B are not sufficient to determine if the cloud is heading for Earth. Our best guess is "probably, yes, but not directly toward Earth." A glancing blow to our planet's magnetosphere is possible on March 8th or 9th. Stay tuned for updates

Report of Solar flare Activity

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Mar 01 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low. There was one C-class
flare duing the past 24 hours, a C3/1f from Region 1423 (N17W21) at
01/1526Z. New Region 1427 (N15W01) was numbered today. A CME was
observed at 29/1824Z (using LASCO C2) from the north polar region of
the sun, however it is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active with isolated storm
periods at high latitudes. The elevated activity appears to be
related to a solar sector boundary crossing.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first and second days
(02-03 Mar) due to a small yet well positioned coronal hole.  A
return to quiet levels is expected on the third day (04 Mar).

III.  Event Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

latest Report of Solar flare and Geophysical Activity

Latest Report of Solar flare and Geophysical Activity
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Feb 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours.
A series of CMEs were observed over the west limb at 29/0125Z,
29/0924Z, and 29/1212Z. Stereo-A imagery confirm the source regions
were behind the west limb and none of these are expected to be
geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first day (01 Mar). A slight increase
to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on the second day (02 Mar)
due to a small coronal hole. Quiet levels are expected on the third
day (03 Mar).

Solar Update / New Record

Solar activity continues on at very low levels.There is currently no chance for strong solar flares. A new sunspot is trying to form to the east of sunspot 1423 and is pictured below.

Despite the lack of Sunspots, February 29th will mark the 199th day in a row with an official visible Sunspot counted by SWPC Space Weather Operations (SWO). This is a new record for Cycle 24 and beats the previous record of 198 days set on August 13, 2011.

latest Solar and Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (29 Feb - 02 Mar) with just a slight
chance for an isolated C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with a
period of minor storm levels at some observatories during the local
nighttime hours. Quiet conditions prevailed from the beginning of
the period until about 07Z when a substorm interval began and
continued through about 09Z. The planetary activity reached active
levels but several individual stations attained minor storm levels
during the disturbance. Activity promptly returned to predominantly
quiet levels after the substorm and remained quiet for the rest of
the period. The disturbance was preceded by about two hours of
southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) seen at the ACE
spacecraft (0510-0702Z, with maximum southward deflection of -11
nT). The IMF was otherwise predominantly northwards during the
interval. ACE data also indicated a solar sector boundary crossing
at about 1534Z. The greater than 10 MeV protons observed by GOES
returned to background levels late on the 27th and remained there
through the end of the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first two days (29 Feb - 01 Mar). A
slight increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on the
third day (02 Mar) due to a small but well positioned coronal hole.

Latest Solar Flares Feb 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Umbral separation was
... observed in Region 1422 (N15W78). Slight decay was observed in the
trailing spots of Region 1424 (N08E52). The rest of the spot groups
were relatively quiet and stable. A filament eruption on the SE
limb was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 24/1911Z. A
corresponding CME off the SE limb was observed in LASCO C2 imagery
beginning at 24/1948Z. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (26 -
28 February).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
major storm conditions were observed at high latitudes (College)
during the periods ending at 25/1200Z and 25/1500Z. A greater than
10 MeV proton enhancement began at approximately 25/0330Z and
reached a maximum of 3 pfu at 25/1830Z and continued to be enhanced
by the end of the reporting period. The event did not reach event
threshold and likely originated from a backside event.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (26 February). Early on day 2
(27 February), unsettled to active conditions are expected with
minor storm periods possible due to the expected arrival of the 24
February CME. Conditions are expected to calm to quiet to unsettled
levels with active periods possible by day 3 (28 February).

III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 108
Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 25 Feb 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 004/005-011/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/25/20
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/30/25
Minor storm 10/25/20
Major-severe storm 05/15/10