Solar and Geophysical Activity Report of 06 Mar 2012

Updated Mar 06 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. There were five M-class x-ray
events during the past 24 hours, all from Region 1429 (N17E31). The
largest event was an M2/1n 06/1241Z. None of these events was
associated with a CME that would be expected to be geoeffective.
Region 1429 dominates the disk in area (about 1010 millionths), and
exhibited growth during the period. The trailer portion showed the
most development but has separated a bit from the main cluster of
spots. The central portion is magnetically complex and shows
multiple deltas as well as strong shear along a pair of east-west
polarity inversion lines. Region 1428 (S17E08) also showed some
growth during the period (area of 280 millionths) but is simple
magnetically and was relatively quiet.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Additional M-class events from Region 1429 are likely.
There is also a chance for a major flare and/or proton producing
event from Region 1429 during the next three days (07-09 March).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. ACE solar wind
measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field showed steady
strengthening during the period and there were numerous intervals of
weakly southward Bz. The greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement
continued throughout the period and reached a peak value of 4 PFU at
06/1335Z. The flux appeared to be on a slow declining trend at the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods during the next 24 hours (07 March). The increase in
activity is expected due to combined effects from a co-rotating
interaction region with the CME that occurred on 04 March
(associated with the M2 x-ray event). Later in the day additional
effects are expected due to a glancing blow from the full halo CME
associated with the X1 x-ray event that occurred on 05 March.
Predominantly unsettled levels with a chance for active periods are
expected for the second day (08 March) as effects from the
anticipated disturbance should diminish. Predominantly quiet levels
are expected for the third day (09 March).

III.  Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green