latest solar flare activity 2013 Aug 25

UPDATED 2013 Aug 25 

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. There were no reportable flares this
period. All regions presently on the disk were either stable or
decaying. A disappearing filament was observed near N33W07 at
approximately 25/0800 UTC. No associated CME was visible at the
time of this report. The situation will be analyzed further if future 
imagery deems necessary.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low (Below M1-Minor) for days one and two
(25 - 26 Aug) and expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flare activity on day three (27 Aug).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate to high levels, reaching a maximum flux value of 3,575 pfu at
24/1825 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels for the next three days (25 - 27 Aug). The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below
S1-Minor) for the next three days (25 - 27 Aug).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, decreased to near
background levels during the period. Speeds began at approximately 475
km/s reaching 400 km/s at the time of this report. Total field decreased
from 7 nT to 5 nT. IMF Bz was predominately positive until 25/0310 UTC,
when a positive (away) to negative (towards) solar sector boundary
crossing occurred. At that time Bz turned south and has remained at a
steady -3 nT.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to remain steady around 400 km/s on day one
(25 Aug), before becoming enhanced on days two and three (26 - 27 Aug)
due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled (Below
G1-Minor) with a chance for isolated active conditions in the nighttime
sector on day one (25 Aug) due to prolonged negative Bz. The field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled levels for days two and
three (26 - 27 Aug) due to CH HSS influence.

Latest Report of Solar flares and Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1589 (N12E49) was
responsible for the largest flare of the period; a C4 x-ray flare at
11/0804Z.  Region 1589 is currently the most complex region with a
Beta-Gamma magnetic classification.  New Region 1590 (S29E59)
rotated onto the southeast limb and was numbered today.  No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class activity for the forecast period
(12-14 October).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Solar wind speed, measured at the
ACE spacecraft, was slightly elevated between approximately 440 to
500 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1-2 (12-13 October).  On day 3
(14 October) a coronal hole high speed stream is expected to move
into geoeffective position causing quiet to unsettled conditions
with a chance for active periods.

latest Solar flare storm and Geophysical Activity july 03 2012

Moderate to High Solar Activity
Sprawling Sunspot Cluster 1515 is now directly facing the Earth. This region is responsible for generating at least 5 M-Class solar flares within the past few days, including M5.6 and M3.8 events on Monday. So far on Tuesday, numerous C-Class flares have been detected including a C9.0 flare at 17:02 UTC. This region has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification and may produce a strong solar flare within the next 24 to 48 hours. So far the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) output has been directed mostly away from Earth.


Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1515 (S16W10)
remained the predominant flare producer with an M2/Sf flare at
02/2356Z and frequent C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 03/0342Z
associated with a 260 sfu Tenflare. This region, classified as an
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta, remained large and magnetically complex with
delta magnetic configurations within its interior and trailer spots.
Several coronal mass ejections (CME) were associated with flare
activity in Region 1515, but the bulk of the ejecta was directed
southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1513 (N16W22) retained
its beta-gamma magnetic configuration and displayed no significant
changes during the period. It produced isolated C-class flares
including a C8/Sf at 03/1441Z associated with a Type II radio sweep
(estimated shock velocity 1064 km/s). No new regions were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate through the period (04 - 06 July) with more M-class flares
expected from Region 1515.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with
active to minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. ACE solar
wind data indicated Earth remained within a negative-polarity
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speeds were in the 504
to 715 km/s range with a gradual decreasing trend. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was variable in the +4/-4 nT
range. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (04 -
06 July) with a chance for active levels due to persistent CH HSS
effects. Recent CME activity from Region 1515 is not expected to
significantly disturb the geomagnetic field.


Solar Update
Solar activity was high on Monday with multiple M-Class flares being detected around large Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere. The solar X-Ray background levels are currently hovering near the C1 level. There will remain the chance for a strong solar flare.

latest Solar wind storm and Geophysical Activity july 02 2012

M5.6 Solar Flare / CME Directed Mostly South
Gigantic Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere produced a strong M5.6 Solar Flare this morning at 10:52 UTC. This event generated a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) along with a Type II Sweep Frequency Event. This region is in a great location for Earth directed explosions. More information to follow.

CME Update: The M5.6 Solar Flare from earlier today did generate a blob of plasma that looks to be directed mostly towards the south and not towards Earth.

Two More M-Class Flares
Sunspot 1515 just produced another moderate solar flare, this time reaching M3.8 at 20:07 UTC. This large Sunspot cluster appears poised to generate a major solar flare within the next couple of days. Image by SDO.

UPDATE: Solar Activity continues at moderate to high levels. A minor C6 solar flare around Sunspot 1513 was just followed up with yet another M-Class flare around Sunspot 1515. The latest blast peaked at M2.0 and the time of the event was 23:56 UTC.

Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 02 1047 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1063 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 02 1046 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 02 1047 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 02 1048 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 380 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Updated 7/2/2012 @ 04:10 UTC
Solar Update / Aurora Watch
Solar activity continued at moderate levels on Sunday with a pair of M-Class flares around Sunspot 1513. The largest of these events was an M2.8 flare at 19:18 UTC Sunday afternoon. Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere is largest region on the visible solar disk, but has so far only produced C-Class solar flares. Both 1513 and 1515 retain Beta-Gamma magnetic configurations and may produce additonal M-Class flares on Monday.

The solar wind remains above 600 km/s and minor geomagnetic activity will be possible at very high latitudes. Visible aurora will be possible around the polar regions.

latest Solar flare Activity june 26 2012

Updated Jun 29 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N17E30)
produced an M2/1b at 29/0920Z along with occasional C-class flares.
Region 1515 (S17E43) grew significantly and is now considered a
Dkc-type region with a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region
1515 produced a few C-class flares during the past 24 hours.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (30
June-02 July).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (30 June) with a chance
for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled
to active levels on days two and three (01-02 July) with a chance
for minor storm levels due to CH HSS effects. 

latest Solar wind storm and Geophysical Activity june 26 2012

Solar activity is fairly low with low level C-Class flares being detected around new Sunspot 1512. This region continues to slowly expand. Another sunspot is rotating into view off the northeast limb and looks to be the return of old region 1493 (now numbered 1513). Finally a third sunspot region is also rotating into view off the southeast limb. There will continue to be a chance for C-Class flares.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (27 - 29 June).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with active to
minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. This activity was
associated with a minor increase in solar wind speeds (peak 496 km/s
at 26/0455Z) coupled with intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz
(maximum southward deflection -7 nT at 26/0113Z).

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (27 - 28
June). Field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels on day 3 (29 June) with a chance for active levels due to the
arrival of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal
hole high-speed stream.

Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jun 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly quiet during the period (25 - 27 June).

Impact of Solar Flares in 2012

Solar flares are thunderous storms that take place in the outer layer of the sun producing a explosions of extremely powerful and hazardous radiation. A typical solar activity will increase and decrease in 11 year periods, with the next storm expected in 2012. However, due to several calculations from NASA scientists, the force of the 2012 solar storm is unlike any solar storm ever recorded in the history of mankind.

Since 2001, NASA scientists has been keeping track of a massive solar storm predicted to strike earth in 2012 with an intensity of 100 million hydrogen bombs going off at the same time. On August 2010, NASA warned that a massive solar storm is developing and is very likely to destroy earth's electrical grid. So what does that mean for the planet? No electrical power. GPS systems will fail, airports will be suspended, mass communication will be eliminated with a potential to wipe out orbiting satellites. There will be a complete blackout all over the world.

The History of Solar Flares

Similar solar flares in the past (1859 and 1921) triggered global chaos, destroying a large amount of telegraph wire connections. The solar flare prediction for 2012 is expected to be even more cataclysmic than before as we rely predominantly on technological devices in our everyday life.

The Impact

According to NASA, the solar storm predictions for 2012 will cause up to 2 trillion dollars in damage to earth's electrical transformers and technology system and losing electricity power for up to 10 years. Devastation to electrical power grids along with other communications technology will be devastating, scientists conclude, with results heading to a loss of government control of the scenario.

latest Solar wind storm and Geophysical Activity june 17 2012

Geomagnetic Storm Update
Geomagnetic Storming continues at very high latitudes as effects from an incoming CME shock continues on Sunday morning. The Kp index initially reached moderate G2 Geomagnetic Storm status (Kp=6). Currently as of this update, the Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is tipped south and a minor G1 Storm is in progress.

UPDATE: The Kp index dropped below the Minor Geomagnetic Storm threshold (Kp=4). Minor storm flareups at high latitudes could still take place for the remainder of the day.

Solar Update

Solar activity is currently at low levels with only C-Class flares detected within the past 24 hours. There is a very low threat for an X-Class flare within the next 48 hours. Sunspot 1504 remains a large Sunspot cluster with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z

to 16/2100Z: Solar activity remained low. The largest flare of the

past 24 hours was a C2/1n, which occurred at 16/0048Z from Region

1504 (S17W27). Region 1504 has continued to grow in area, but the

number of spots and magnetic complexity remained stable with a

beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1509 (S16W43) was

numbered today as an H-type group with an alpha magnetic

configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate during the period (17-19 June), with M-class flares

likely from Region 1504.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Three

sudden impulses were observed today at 0957Z, 2019Z, and 2115Z (28

nT, 28 nT, and 25 nT, respectively, as measured by the Boulder USGS

magnetometer). ACE data indicated three shock arrivals at around

0900Z, 1931Z, and 2031Z. Solar wind speed ACE increased to around

425 km/s and total field strength reached 10 nT with the first shock

passage, 450 km/s and 17 nT with the second, and 530 km/s and 34 nT

with the third. The greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 1955Z,

reached a maximum flux of 14.4 PFU at 2020Z, and remains in progress

at the time of forecast.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm

levels on day 1 (17 June) due to the CME arrivals. Conditions are

expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled on day 2 (18 June) as the

CME effects subside. On day 3 (19 June) conditions are expected to

be mostly quiet.

latest Solar flare and Geophysical Activity june 15 2012

On Thursday morning, Sunspot 1504 produced yet another long duration M-Class flare. The event peaked at M1.9 and generated an Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection which was visible in the STEREO Ahead COR2 images. A 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) was recorded measuring 1400sfu and lasted for 103 minutes. The plamsa cloud is expected to impact Earth later in the day on Saturday June 16. As per the latest WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction, the time of impact is expected around 18:00 UTC. Geomagnetic Storming will be possible at very high latitudes.

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1504 (S16E01)
produced a long duration M1/1n flare with maximum at 14/1435Z. This
event was associated with a 1400 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio
sweep. This region showed growth and maintained its
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. An associated CME was
observed in STEREO imagery at 14/1424Z with an estimated
plane-of-sky velocity between 900 and 1100 km/s.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 15-16 June. An increase to unsettled to
active levels is expected early on day 3 (17 June) due to combined
effects from both the 13 June and 14 June CMEs.

latest Solar flare and Geophysical Activity june 14 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1504 (S17E14)
produced a long duration M1/1n flare at 13/1317Z associated with a
260 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio sweep.  This region showed
growth in the leading spots and developed a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.  An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2
imagery at 13/1412Z with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity between
700 and 800 km/s.  Old Region 1507 was split into two regions as it
showed two distinct bipolar areas and now consists of Region 1507
(S25W13) and Region 1508 (S28W06).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 14-15 June.  An increase to unsettled levels
is expected mid-day on day 3 (16 June) due to a possible glancing
blow from todays CME.

Latest Solar Flare News May 17 2012

Just as we thought we have seen the last of Sunspot 1476, the former active region decided to produce a solar flare reaching above the M5.0 level. The GOES Solar X-Ray data did show M4.6 before it stopped reporting at 01:43 UTC Thursday morning. SDO/EVE data suggests it may have been closer to M8.0. Because of the sunspots location, any possible CME may be directed mostly away from Earth.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1476 (N13W73) produced a
few C-class flares while continuing to decay. Regions 1482 (N13E10)
and 1484 (N09E38) also produced a few low level C-class events. A
pair of CMEs associated with apparent filament eruptions were
observed in LASCO C2/C3, but neither appear to be earth directed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (17-19 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  With the exception of an
isolated unsettled or active period early on day 1 (17 May) from an
expected solar sector boundary crossing, geomagnetic field
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet throughout the period
(17-19 May).

latest solar solar storm flare news may 9 2012

U
M4.7 Solar Flare
Large Sunspot 1476 awoke this morning and produced a moderate M4.7 Solar Flare at 12:32 UTC. Video and images are now listed below. There is now a growing threat for an X-Class event. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.

Solar Flare Update: Moderate Solar activity continued on Wednesday afternoon around monster Sunspot group 1476. This region is now responsible for several M-Class events including an M4.7 and M4.1.

Northern Exposure
In between all of the Solar Flares, Zoltan Kenwell in Alberta, Canada captured this nice Aurora image during last nights geomagnetic disturbance. The solar wind combined with a south tilting Bz helped trigger this event. Thank You Zoltan for the great image.

Solar activity is currently moderate with two M-Class flares within the past 24 hours. The largest of these events was an M4.7 at 12:32 UTC Wednesday morning around Sunspot 1476. This region has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and could produce an X-Class event. New Sunspot 1477 rotated into view off the southeast limb. This looks to be the return of old Sunspot 1462. Elsewhere, all other regions are currently quiet.

Updated May 09 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours.  Region 1476 (N10E22) continues to be the most complex and
most active spot region on the visible disk.  It produced an M4/1n
x-ray flare at 09/1232Z, and an M1/1b x-ray flare at 09/1408Z.  This
spot region continues to grow in area, reaching 1050 Millionths and
remains a Fkc/beta-gamma-delta configuration.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (10-12 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the
past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a slight chance for minor
storming on day one (10 May) due to increased wind speeds associated
with the Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS).  Days two and
three (11-12 May) are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels as
the effects of the CH HSS begin to wane.

Report of Latest Solar Wind Storm Activity May 8 2012

1470-1471 Produces M1.9 Flare and minor CME
Sunspot combo 1470-1471 produced a long duration M1.9 flare on Monday morning. This event peaked at 14:31 UTC and triggered a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) lasting 12 minutes and measuring 240 sfu. Sometimes a long duration event (LDE) will produce a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Stay Tuned for more information.

Update: A minor CME was generated and may be Earth directed. Only minor geomagnetic activity is expected by May 10th.

Updated May 08 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours.  Region 1476 (N11E35) is the most complex region on the
visible disk, has grown to become a Fkc/beta-gamma-delta
configuration, and has an area of approximately 940 Millionths.  It
also produced the largest flare, a M1/1f at 08/1308Z, as well as
several C-class flares.  COR2 imagery from the STEREO-A spacecraft
indicated two weak Earth-directed CMEs that are not expected to have
significant impacts upon arrival.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (09 - 11 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (09 May).  Day two (10
May) is expected to be at quiet to active levels with a chance for
minor storm periods due to the effects of the Coronal Hole High
Speed Stream (CH HSS) and the anticipated arrival of the CME that
departed the solar disk on 07 May.  Day three (11 May) is expected
to return to quiet to unsettled levels as the effects of the CH HSS
begin to wane.

Report of Latest Solar Wind Storm Activity May 6 2012

1476 Seething With Activity
Sunspot 1476 is seething with flares on Sunday afternoon. Multiple mid level C-Class flares have been detected along with an impulsive M1.3 flare at 17:47 UTC. Continue to monitor this region as activity is increasing.

Updated 5/6/2012 @ 13:30 UTC
Solar Update
Solar activity is now at moderate levels. New and active Sunspot 1476 has produced three low level M-Class flares thus far. There will continue to be a chance for another moderate solar flare on Sunday. This region is still not in the best position for Earth directed explosions, however this will change with each passing day.

 Three M-Class Flares / Sunspot 1476
Solar activity increased to moderate levels thanks to newly numbered Sunspot 1476. This new region rotated into view off the northeast limb and has so far produced a pair of M-Class flares. The latest event was an M1.3 at 23:01 UTC Saturday evening. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com as solar activity is again increasing.

UPDATE: Sunspot 1476 did generate a third low level M-Class flare early on Sunday morning.

Report of Latest Solar Wind Storm Activity May 5 2012

Two M-Class Flares / Sunspot 1476
Solar activity increased to moderate levels thanks to newly numbered Sunspot 1476. This new region rotated into view off the northeast limb and has so far produced a pair of M-Class flares. The latest event was an M1.3 at 23:01 UTC Saturday evening. solar activity is again increasing.

Solar Update
Solar activity increased somewhat due to the new sunspot rotating into view off the northeast limb. This region should be numbered 1476 on Saturday. There will be a chance for an M-Class event. All other regions have been fairly quiet with the exception of a C2.0 flare around Sunspot 1471 in the southern hemisphere. 

Updated May 05 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels. New Region 1476
(N09E67) produced several C-class flares along with an M1/Sn at
05/1329Z. The regions proximity to the limb makes spot
classification difficult, however, it is currently considered a
Dko-beta type group. Region 1469 (S26W77) continues to produce low
level C-class activity as it rotates around the west limb. A model
run was completed after the forecast was issued yesterday to include
the CME observed off the southwest limb yesterday. It was determined
that the CME has a slight Earth-directed component. A second CME,
first visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery at 05/0309Z, appeared to be
associated with a C1 flare from Region 1469 observed at 04/2350Z.
Although both CMEs have a weak Earth-directed component, neither are
expected to cause significant geomagnetic activity. A third CME
associated with a C2/Sf flare from Region 1470 (S15W31) observed at
05/0639Z, first became visible in SDO AIA imagery at approximately
05/0600Z. Due to the source location, it is probable that the CME is
Earth-directed and a model run is currently in progress to determine
geoeffectiveness.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares for the next three days (06-08
May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (06 May). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are possible on days two and three (07-08 May) due to
weak effects from the CMEs observed on 04 May.

Latest Solar Flare Storm Activity update may 1 2012

Solar Update

 
Numerous C-Class flares were observed within the past 12 hours. A long duration C3.9 event  peaked at 07:38 UTC Monday morning and was located near departing Sunspot 1465 off the southwest limb. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is seen in the latest STEREO Ahead COR2 images. This plasma cloud will most likely miss Earth. Another flare measuring C5.6 near the same region followed at 10:23 UTC. Sunspot 1471 in the southeast quadrant produced a C6.0 flare at 10:41 UTC. There will continue to be a chance for C-Class flares and perhaps an isolated M-Class event.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Before rotating off the west limb of the solar disk, Region
1465 (S18W95) produced a long duration C3 x-ray flare at 30/0738Z.
Associated with this event were both a Type II radio sweep
(estimated shock velocity of 645 km/s) and a non-Earth directed CME.
Region 1471 (S22E45) also produced multiple C-class events and
appears to be growing in sunspot area and magnetic complexity as it
rotates further into view. No new sunspot regions were numbered
today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days (01 - 03 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained at
nominal levels throughout the summary period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (01
- 02 May) as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into a
geoeffective position. A return to quiet levels is expected on day
three (03 May) as the effects of the high speed stream wane.

III.  Event Probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 114
Predicted   01 May-03 May  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  007/008-007/008-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

Latest Solar Flare Activity Update April 27 2012

Solar Update
Solar activity increased to moderate levels with an M1.0 solar flare detected Friday morning around Sunspot 1466 in the northern hemisphere. Sunspot 1465 in the south produced a minor C2.4 flare at 11:02 UTC. Sunspot 1469 located in the southeast quadrant, appears to be growing on Friday. Finally, A new region looks to be hiding on the southeast limb and will soon begin to rotate into view. There will continue to be a small chance for an isolated M-Class flare.

Sunspot Update: The region hiding on the southeast limb is now rotating into view and a Sunspot is  
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M1/1n flare at 27/0824Z from Region 1466 (N11W38). Other activity consisted of single, low-level C-class flares from Regions 1459 (S19W88), 1465 (S17W53), 1467 (N11E32), 1469 (S24E28) and 1466. During the period, Region 1465 developed into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration while the remaining regions showed little change. Numerous non-Earth directed CMEs were observed off the SW limb over the past 24 hours, all originating from old Region 1462 (S25, L=139) which rotated around the west on 24 April. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days (28 - 30 April). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Through the period, ACE solar wind velocities steadily decreased from about 560 km/s to near 500km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was variable between +/-4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next three days (28 - 30 April).

Report of latest solar flare activity April 26 2012

Report of latest solar flare activity April 26 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1460 (N15W93)
and Region 1465 (S18W39) both produced C1 x-ray events at 25/2242Z
and 26/1723Z respectively. Both had associated CMEs but neither are
expected to be geoeffective. Three consecutive CMEs appeared on
LASCO/C2 imagery at 26/0924Z, 26/1148Z, and 26/1638Z. All three
were around the west limb and are not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three
days (27 - 29 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field started the period at minor storm levels, but
fell to quiet levels and remained mostly quiet for the remainder of
the period. This activity was attributed to Coronal Hole High Speed
Stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds have steadily decreased
from approximately 730 km/s to approximately 560 km/s. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained fairly
neutral with minor fluctuations between +3 and -5 nT. Overall, the
total field fluctuated between +2 and +8 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout
the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods for day one (27 April) as CH HSS effects begin to wane.
Days two and three (28 -29 April) are expected to be mostly quiet.



A long lasting Geomagnetic Storm that reached very close to the Strong G3 Level took place Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Visible Aurora was seen in many locations and Ham Radio operators were able to make numerous contacts via the Aurora on the 6 meter (50mhz) amateur radio band. This storm was due to a sharply south pointing component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) that allowed the solar wind to flow in and generate aurora. Things are now starting to return to quieter levels.

UPDATE: Minor Geomagnetic Storm conditions (Kp=5) did again flare up on both Tuesday and Wednesday evenings. The solar wind is currently near 500 km/s. Be on the lookout for Aurora at very high latitudes.

Updated 4/26/2012 @ 13:40 UTC
Solar Update
Solar activity is currently at very low levels. Sunspot 1460 just rotated onto the western limb and out of direct Earth view. Sunspot 1459 which continues to decay, will also join 1460 on the limb by the weekend. Elsewhere, Sunspot 1465 did have a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration, but has itself decayed and is no longer a threat for strong solar flares. There will continue to be a chance for C-Class flares.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1460 (N15W93)
and Region 1465 (S18W39) both produced C1 x-ray events at 25/2242Z
and 26/1723Z respectively. Both had associated CMEs but neither are
expected to be geoeffective. Three consecutive CMEs appeared on
LASCO/C2 imagery at 26/0924Z, 26/1148Z, and 26/1638Z. All three
were around the west limb and are not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three
days (27 - 29 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field started the period at minor storm levels, but
fell to quiet levels and remained mostly quiet for the remainder of
the period. This activity was attributed to Coronal Hole High Speed
Stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds have steadily decreased
from approximately 730 km/s to approximately 560 km/s. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained fairly
neutral with minor fluctuations between +3 and -5 nT. Overall, the
total field fluctuated between +2 and +8 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout
the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods for day one (27 April) as CH HSS effects begin to wane.
Days two and three (28 -29 April) are expected to be mostly quiet.

Report of latest solar flare activity April 20 2012

Despite the amount of large Sunspots on the Earth facing side of the Sun, solar activity has been fairly low over the past 24 hours. None of the current visible sunspots are magnetically complex (at this time). There will remain the chance for an isolated M-Class event. The sunspot totals are also helping to increase the daily Solar Flux readings. The solar flux ended near 140 on Thursday.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Apr 19 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C7 x-ray flare at 19/1126Z associated with Types II and IV
radio sweeps and a non-Earth-directed CME. This event may have
originated in old Region 1455 (N05, L=206), now about two days
beyond the west limb. Regions 1460 (N16W01) and 1463 (S26W49) each
produced a low-level C-class flare. Region 1460 showed spot growth
in its intermediate portion. Region 1462 (S24W31) produced a C1
flare at 19/1515Z associated with a CME that may have had an
Earthward component. Further analysis is required to determine if
the CME is likely to be geoeffective. New Region 1464 (N23E01,
Bxo-Beta) was numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 3 (20 - 22 April) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (20 April) with
a chance for brief active levels due to a recurrent solar sector
boundary crossing. Quiet levels are expected during days 2- 3 (21 -
22 April).