Solar flare Activity Solar Update CME Update 12 May 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/2032Z from a region around the east limb. There are currently 10
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May,
15 May).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 435 km/s at
11/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 456 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 May), quiet levels on
day two (14 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 May).


III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

Updated 05/13/2013 @ 02:10 UTC
X-Class Solar Flare
A major X-Class Solar Flare peaking at X1.7 was observed around an active region hiding off the east limb at 02:15 UTC. This event was also responsible for a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout on the sunlit side of Earth. This region is currently seething with activity and should begin to rotate into view within the next 24 hours. Because of the sunspot location, any associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) should be directed away from Earth. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest and most up to date Space Weather information.
  M1.9 Flare
A moderate solar flare measuring M1.9 was detected around a new active region off the east limb at 20:32 UTC Sunday evening. This probable sunspot will rotate into view over the next few days. Image by SDO.
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0208 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 13 0219 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 13 0222 UTC
Duration: 14 minutes
Peak Flux: 320 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Solar flare Activity Solar Update CME Update Apr 13 2013

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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2013 Apr 13 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/0334Z from Region 1718 (N21W58). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (14 Apr, 15 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (16 Apr).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 501 km/s at
12/2336Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2240Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 13/0036Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 12/2205Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 268 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (14 Apr) and quiet
levels on days two and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Apr) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (15 Apr).

Solar flare Activity Solar Update CME Update Apr 11 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
11/0716Z from Region 1719 (N10W00). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at
11/1243Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/0712Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0916Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu at 11/1645Z.
Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 2 pfu at 11/1400Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 385 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Apr), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (13 Apr) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (14
Apr). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (12 Apr), have
a chance of crossing threshold on day two (13 Apr) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day three (14 Apr).


III.  Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     99/30/10
PCAF       red

CME Update: A bright full-halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is visible within the new Lasco imagery. It appears that a bulk of the plasma is directed towards the east, however there also appears to be a fair sized Earth directed

A moderately strong solar flare was observed around Sunspot 1719 at 07:16 UTC. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was generated and looks to be directed mostly to the east. There is however an Earth directed component that could deliver at least a glancing blow or more to our geomagnetic field within 48 hours. Energetic Proton Levels streaming past Earth are on the rise following the flare event. A minor to moderate S2 Level Radiation Storm is currently in progress.

A couple more solar flares of the smaller variety were observed following the initial M6.5 event. A minor flare measuring C4.2 was detected around 1721 in the southeast quadrant at 10:13 UTC. Departed Sunspot 1713 off the west limb produced a flare measuring C6.2 at 10:46 UTC. SolarSoft has the flare at C6.3.

Latest Solar Storms, Flare and Geophysical Activity news

Updated Apr 19 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C7 x-ray flare at 19/1126Z associated with Types II and IV
radio sweeps and a non-Earth-directed CME. This event may have
originated in old Region 1455 (N05, L=206), now about two days
beyond the west limb. Regions 1460 (N16W01) and 1463 (S26W49) each
produced a low-level C-class flare. Region 1460 showed spot growth
in its intermediate portion. Region 1462 (S24W31) produced a C1
flare at 19/1515Z associated with a CME that may have had an
Earthward component. Further analysis is required to determine if
the CME is likely to be geoeffective. New Region 1464 (N23E01,
Bxo-Beta) was numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 3 (20 - 22 April) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (20 April) with
a chance for brief active levels due to a recurrent solar sector
boundary crossing. Quiet levels are expected during days 2- 3 (21 -
22 April).

Latest solar flare report April 17 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been low for the past 24 hours. A
long duration C1 flare was observed from new Region 1461 (N13E66) at
17/0809Z. An associated CME became visible in LASCO C2 imagery at
17/0800Z but does not appear to be Earth-directed. A filament
eruption occurred at approximately 17/1330Z near N24W40. The
associated CME was first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 17/1424Z but
is not expected to be geoeffective. New Region 1460 (N16E26) was
also numbered overnight and is considered a Dso-beta type spot
group. Region 1459 (S15E40) has shown a significant decrease in
areal coverage and is now a Dao-beta type spot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the next three days
(18-20 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (18-19 April). Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected with a chance for isolated
active periods on day three (20 April) due to a recurrent Solar
Sector Boundary Crossing (SSBC).

Strong Solar Flare from 1429 sunspot

Sunspot 1429 just generated another Coronal Mass Ejection and is seen in the latest Lasco C2 images. This explosion was much smaller than the event from last night, but should be a sign of things to come.

The Kp Index is creeping very close to the G1 Geomagnetic Storm Level. The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is tipped sharply south and combined with a gusty solar wind, Aurora at high latitudes will be possible tonight.

The solar wind speed has shown a gradual increase today. This gradual increase is expected to continue over the next 24-48 hours due to a solar sector boundary crossing. Minor geomagnetic activity will be possible at high latitudes.

Solar and Geophysical Activity Report of 06 Mar 2012

Updated Mar 06 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. There were five M-class x-ray
events during the past 24 hours, all from Region 1429 (N17E31). The
largest event was an M2/1n 06/1241Z. None of these events was
associated with a CME that would be expected to be geoeffective.
Region 1429 dominates the disk in area (about 1010 millionths), and
exhibited growth during the period. The trailer portion showed the
most development but has separated a bit from the main cluster of
spots. The central portion is magnetically complex and shows
multiple deltas as well as strong shear along a pair of east-west
polarity inversion lines. Region 1428 (S17E08) also showed some
growth during the period (area of 280 millionths) but is simple
magnetically and was relatively quiet.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Additional M-class events from Region 1429 are likely.
There is also a chance for a major flare and/or proton producing
event from Region 1429 during the next three days (07-09 March).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. ACE solar wind
measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field showed steady
strengthening during the period and there were numerous intervals of
weakly southward Bz. The greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement
continued throughout the period and reached a peak value of 4 PFU at
06/1335Z. The flux appeared to be on a slow declining trend at the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods during the next 24 hours (07 March). The increase in
activity is expected due to combined effects from a co-rotating
interaction region with the CME that occurred on 04 March
(associated with the M2 x-ray event). Later in the day additional
effects are expected due to a glancing blow from the full halo CME
associated with the X1 x-ray event that occurred on 05 March.
Predominantly unsettled levels with a chance for active periods are
expected for the second day (08 March) as effects from the
anticipated disturbance should diminish. Predominantly quiet levels
are expected for the third day (09 March).

III.  Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

The strongest solar storms outbreak in five years - Autos

NASA's solar dynamics observation satellite measurements to five years of the most violent

solar radiation outbreak, arrived in earth can cause moderate geomagnetic storms, influence on

earth satellite communication and power supplies. According to the observation of solar

dynamics observation satellite, aside from a small radiation storm outside, the sun eruption

coupled with a flare and a halo material eruption.

The national weather service space weather prediction center project coordinator Cardiff, bill

mourinho tower said: "this time the outbreak started very dramatic." He pointed out that

medium solar flare in 6 at 1am edt 41 points (the GMT at 5 a.m. 41 points) peak. "We first

observed flare scale doesn't big, in the ensuing eruption process, we observed high-energy

particle radiation and large-scale halo material eruption. Can you observed out from the sun

all the material, the surface is very spectacular sight."

The sun dynamics observation satellite launched in 2010, filming the sun outbreaks of high-

definition pictures and video. According to the observation, the sun eruption in visually

spectacular, because of the earth, not positive influence on the earth can be very small. NASA

said in a statement: "rising particle formation huge mushroom, then fell back to the sun to

the surface, seems covered nearly half of the sun to the surface."

Randolph points out, intentions space weather analysts are eyeing the sun eruption, to

determine whether it leads to the sun and earth happened between magnetic field collide. Sun

in about 150 million km distance to the left. He said in an interview with the French media:

"part of our job is to monitor the sun and determine whether an outbreak of substance is

flying to the earth, because the material basically is jet with gas and magnetic. In a day or

two, we will see time some of the substance in the sun injection effect, form the earth. We do

not believe that geomagnetic storms this will be a very severe geomagnetic storms, but

strength can still reach the medium level."

Space weather prediction center, said the sun eruption triggered in 8 small to medium-sized

geomagnetic storms, from about the GMT 18 PM. Any geomagnetic storms activities will end in 24

hours. The national weather service said: "the sun radiation during the storm there are lots

of high-energy protons, this type of activity since since December 2006 was the first

observed."

A total of 12 satellite and spacecraft to the moon, NASA surveillance sunlight layer survey of

the instrument to be able to carry the orbiter to radiation that can be measured and analyzed

the influence of. Radiation effects cosmic ray telescope (CRaTER) project chief researcher Hal

orchid spencer said: "CRaTER task two years ago, this is starting to see the most important

event. This is an exciting moment. Ironically, in planning this task, we originally thought

should be in the sun, because acuteness activity peaks launch the solar particles activities

usually in this period. In fact, we in the sun, and the sun tiny period launch activities will

take a long time to revive. This is an interesting and important moment, because all the signs

are that the sun was back to active state."

The sun from an outbreak of geomagnetic storms on earth will affect some of the grid, global

positioning systems use satellites and other equipment, but also will lead to fly over the

polar regions of the flights are over to change course. He said: "normally would not cause

greater destruction, threat within the scope of the controllable. If by jet to Asia, from the

United States over the arctic, you'll find ten flights. Every day is like this. When massive

radiation storm, some airlines will because of safety concerns to change course, away from the

flight to ensure flight polar regions keep communications smooth. The company will also

operating satellites close attention, because geomagnetic storms will in various ways to

interfere with satellite and received signal receiver." NASA says, in 8 evening and 9, polar

regions may also observed aurora borealis and aboard.

0

Gusty Solar Wind Update

Solar Update / Gusty Solar Wind

 
Solar activity increased with C-Class flare activity being detected, including a C4.1 s/f around Sunspot 1421 in the northeast quadrant. New Sunspot 1422 which is also located in the northern hemisphere, continues to expand, and there is now a small chance for an M-Class event.

Solar Wind Update: A gust of solar wind reaching 650 km/s was detected by the ACE Spacecraft early Monday morning. This could again stir up minor geomagnetic activity at very high latitudes.