april 12 2012 Solar flare and Geophysical Activity

Solar Wind Increase / Aurora Watch
The solar wind did show a gradual increase this morning to near 500 km/s and combined with a south tilting Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field, geomagnetic activity at very high latitudes did increase. Visible Aurora is likely at high latitudes.

Aurora Watch: The Kp index continues to rise with the help of a high speed solar wind stream now near 550 km/s. The Bz has been pointing south at times and minor geomagnetic storming at high latitudes may soon be possible.

Updated 4/12/2012 @ 12:10 UTC
Solar Update / Farside Solar Flare
New Sunspot 1455 continues to grow but has only produced B-Class activity thus far. Another sunspot did form in the southern hemisphere and was numbered 1456. It looks to have already faded away. Existing sunspot 1454 located in the southeast quadrant remains stable. There will be a chance for a C-Class flare around AR11455.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1455 (N06W05) has been the most active region
producing multiple B-class x-ray events. Region 1455 has shown rapid
growth in area and magnetic complexity, now a D-type beta group. New
Region 1456 (S20W19) was numbered today. Multiple CMEs were observed
during the period but none appear to be Earth directed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class activity for the next
three days (13 - 15 April) as Regions 1455 and 1456 continue to grow
and evolve.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels over the
past 24 hours. Characteristics of an anticipated high speed solar
wind stream from a coronal hole were observed by the ACE spacecraft,
with subsequent elevated geomagnetic levels here at Earth.
Measurements from the ACE spacecraft showed an increase in solar
wind speeds from around 370 km/s to around 600 km/s with the total
IMF hovering around 12 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with the chance for
minor storm periods on day one (13 April) as the effects of a
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) continue. Quiet to unsettled
levels with a chance for active periods are expected on day two (14
April) as the effects of the CH HSS wane. Predominantly quiet levels
are expected on day three (15 April) as the geomagnetic field
returns to nominal levels.