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Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity occurred during the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next 3 days (4-6 October). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field began the current UTC day with an isolated unsettled period due to an extended interval of negative Bz. Otherwise, the field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (4-6 October).
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of
the period was a long duration C1 x-ray flare at 23/1556Z from an
area of enhanced emission located behind the east limb. Region 1577
(N08E30) indicated the most change during the period developing
numerous intermediate spots. The remaining regions were quiet and
stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity all three days
of the forecast period (24 - 26 September) as active regions are
expected to rotate onto the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE satellite
measurements indicated a steady decline in wind speed from about 400
km/s to near 350 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels all three days of the
forecast period (24 - 26 September).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M 10/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly quiet during the period (25 - 27 June).
Updated May 09 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1476 (N10E22) continues to be the most complex and
most active spot region on the visible disk. It produced an M4/1n
x-ray flare at 09/1232Z, and an M1/1b x-ray flare at 09/1408Z. This
spot region continues to grow in area, reaching 1050 Millionths and
remains a Fkc/beta-gamma-delta configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (10-12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a slight chance for minor
storming on day one (10 May) due to increased wind speeds associated
with the Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS). Days two and
three (11-12 May) are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels as
the effects of the CH HSS begin to wane.
Updated May 08 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1476 (N11E35) is the most complex region on the
visible disk, has grown to become a Fkc/beta-gamma-delta
configuration, and has an area of approximately 940 Millionths. It
also produced the largest flare, a M1/1f at 08/1308Z, as well as
several C-class flares. COR2 imagery from the STEREO-A spacecraft
indicated two weak Earth-directed CMEs that are not expected to have
significant impacts upon arrival.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (09 - 11 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (09 May). Day two (10
May) is expected to be at quiet to active levels with a chance for
minor storm periods due to the effects of the Coronal Hole High
Speed Stream (CH HSS) and the anticipated arrival of the CME that
departed the solar disk on 07 May. Day three (11 May) is expected
to return to quiet to unsettled levels as the effects of the CH HSS
begin to wane.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Multiple C-class events were observed during the period with
the largest event being a C2/Sf x-ray flare from new Region 1475
(N05E61). Even though Region 1475 is magnetically classified as an
alpha group, it remains responsible for a majority of todays
activity. There are currently seven sunspot regions on the disk,
with many regions stable or in a waning phase. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next
three days (04 - 06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (04 -
06 May).
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Before rotating off the west limb of the solar disk, Region 1465 (S18W95) produced a long duration C3 x-ray flare at 30/0738Z. Associated with this event were both a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock velocity of 645 km/s) and a non-Earth directed CME. Region 1471 (S22E45) also produced multiple C-class events and appears to be growing in sunspot area and magnetic complexity as it rotates further into view. No new sunspot regions were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels for the next three days (01 - 03 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained at nominal levels throughout the summary period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (01 - 02 May) as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into a geoeffective position. A return to quiet levels is expected on day three (03 May) as the effects of the high speed stream wane. III. Event Probabilities 01 May-03 May Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Apr 114 Predicted 01 May-03 May 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 112 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 007/008-007/008-004/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/15 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated Mar 22 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1440 (S25W38) produced
todays only C-class flare at 22/1750Z. This region appears to be
decaying and currently shows a beta-gamma configuration. Three new
sunspot groups were numbered today: Region 1441 (S27W56), Region
1442 (N13E49) and Region 1443 (N16E62). All of these regions were
small, quiet, and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 1440.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled period
from 22/1800Z to 22/2100Z. Solar wind data appeared to indicate a
solar sector boundary crossing at about 22/1930Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23-25 March).
Updated Mar 11 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1429 (N18W38)
exhibited little change over the period and remained a complex Ekc
spot group with Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics. New
Regions 1433 (N12E63) and 1434 (S22E58) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to range
from low to high levels for the next three days (12 - 14 March).
Further M-class activity is expected from Region 1429 with a chance
for an X-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft ranged from 420 km/s to 480 km/s
while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not
vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The greater than 100 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit that began at 07/0405Z, reached a maximum of 69
pfu at 07/1525Z, and ended at 10/1650Z. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 07/0510Z, reached
a maximum of 6530 pfu at 08/1115Z, was still ongoing at the close of
the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with isolated
major storm periods possible on day one (12 March) as the 09 March
CME is expected to become geoeffective. On day two (13 March), the
10 March CME, associated with the M8 flare, is expected to become
geoeffective early to mid-day with minor to severe storm levels
expected. By day three (14 March), conditions are expected to
decrease to unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm
periods possible. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected
to decrease to below event levels by 13 March.
Updated Mar 07 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1429 (N17E15) produced
an X5/3B long-duration flare with maximum at 07/0024Z. The event was
associated with type II and type IV radio sweeps and a full halo,
though slightly asymmetric coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME had
an estimated plane of sky speed of about 2200 km/s. During the decay
of the X5 x-ray event, Region 1430 (N21W00) produced an X1/Sf at
0114Z. Region 1429 dominates the disk with an area of about 1300
millionths. Observations show slight separation of the central spots
but the region continues to be large and magnetically complex;
multiple deltas are clearly evident as well as a dominant east-west
polarity inversion line. Region 1430 showed steady growth during the
past 24 hours. Region 1428 (S17W05) also showed growth during the
period but was relatively quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class level activity is expected to continue and
there continues to be a good chance for an additional major flare
and/or proton producing event from Region 1429. In addition, the
growth trend in 1430 suggests that it may also contribute to the
M-flare activity during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. Activity levels were initially quiet to unsettled
until an interplanetary shock arrived. The shock was seen at ACE at
07/0334Z and was followed by a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at
Earth at 07/0421Z. Although solar wind speeds did not increase
greatly, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and density did
increase markedly and the Bz component had numerous intervals of
fairly strong southward orientation (with the strongest negative
intervals at about -15 to -20 nT). Geomagnetic activity increased to
minor to major storm levels following the SSC with some periods of
severe storm levels at high latitudes. The disturbance most likely
originated from the X1/halo CME that occurred on 05 March. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event began at 07/0500Z and has reached a peak so
far of 1630 PFU at 1540Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton event also
occurred, beginning at 07/0405Z and reaching an apparent maximum of
69 PFU at 07/1525Z. Both of these events continue in progress and
are clearly associated with todays X5/Full halo CME event.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active initially on day 1 (08 March) but is expected
to increase to major storm levels with a likelihood for isolated
severe storm levels after the arrival of the CME from todays
X5/full halo event. The arrival time is estimated to be sometime
between 0600-1000Z. Minor to major storm levels are expected to
continue partway (6-12 hours) into the second day (09 March), but a
decline to predominantly active levels is expected for the remainder
of the day. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the
third day (10 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue through the first day and is also likely to
continue partway through the second day. The greater than 100 Mev
proton event is expected to slowly decline over the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 85/85/85
Class X 40/40/40
Proton 99/80/50
PCAF red
Updated Feb 08 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N16W90) produced a
slow rise and fall, limb event, C7 x-ray flare at 07/2216Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (09-11 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled over the period due to
elevated ambient solar wind speeds and periods of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods for days 1-2 (09-10 February) due to coronal hole effects.
Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels on day 3 (11
February).
Updated Feb 08 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N16W90) produced a
slow rise and fall, limb event, C7 x-ray flare at 07/2216Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (09-11 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled over the period due to
elevated ambient solar wind speeds and periods of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods for days 1-2 (09-10 February) due to coronal hole effects.
Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels on day 3 (11
February).
Updated Feb 05 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The disk and
limb was quiet and stable with no Earth-directed CMEs detected.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (06 -
08 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated high latitude active period. ACE satellite wind speeds
were steady between 400 to 450 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (06 -
08 February).
Feb 04 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. A six degree
long filament eruption was visible in SDO/AIA 304 imagery, first
observed at about 03/2031Z. The filament was centered near N25W27,
just to the northeast of Region 1410 (N16W44). SOHO LASCO C2
imagery observed a slow-moving CME off the north limb of the disk,
first visible at 04/0836Z. At this time, the CME does not appear to
have an Earthward-directed component. New Region 1414 (S06W19)
emerged on the disk as a simple B-type beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (05 -
07 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels at middle latitudes
while active to minor storm periods were observed at high latitudes.
ACE satellite observations indicated a steady increase in wind
velocities through the period from about 400 km/s to near 460 km/s.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary
much beyond +/- 5 nT for the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (05 -
07 February).