Saturday, April 14, 2012

April 14 2012 Solar flare and Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1455 (N06W34)
produced occasional B-class x-ray flares during the first half of
the period. Region 1455 showed minor spot and penumbral decay during
the period and simplified from a beta-gamma to a beta magnetic
classification. New Regions 1458 (N07E70) and 1459 (S15E79) were
numbered. Neither were remarkable, but analysis was hampered due to
limb proximity. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during
the period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low during days 1 - 3 (15 - 17 April) with a chance for isolated
C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. ACE solar
wind observations indicated the continued presence of a coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS) with speeds in the 499 to 614 km/s range.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (15 April) with
a chance for active levels due to persistent CH HSS effects.
Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during days
2 - 3 (16 - 17 April) as the CH HSS subsides.