Just as we thought we have seen the last of Sunspot 1476, the former active region decided to produce a solar flare reaching above the M5.0 level. The GOES Solar X-Ray data did show M4.6 before it stopped reporting at 01:43 UTC Thursday morning. SDO/EVE data suggests it may have been closer to M8.0. Because of the sunspots location, any possible CME may be directed mostly away from Earth.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1476 (N13W73) produced a
few C-class flares while continuing to decay. Regions 1482 (N13E10)
and 1484 (N09E38) also produced a few low level C-class events. A
pair of CMEs associated with apparent filament eruptions were
observed in LASCO C2/C3, but neither appear to be earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (17-19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: With the exception of an
isolated unsettled or active period early on day 1 (17 May) from an
expected solar sector boundary crossing, geomagnetic field
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet throughout the period
(17-19 May).