Latest Solar Flare News May 17 2012

Just as we thought we have seen the last of Sunspot 1476, the former active region decided to produce a solar flare reaching above the M5.0 level. The GOES Solar X-Ray data did show M4.6 before it stopped reporting at 01:43 UTC Thursday morning. SDO/EVE data suggests it may have been closer to M8.0. Because of the sunspots location, any possible CME may be directed mostly away from Earth.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1476 (N13W73) produced a
few C-class flares while continuing to decay. Regions 1482 (N13E10)
and 1484 (N09E38) also produced a few low level C-class events. A
pair of CMEs associated with apparent filament eruptions were
observed in LASCO C2/C3, but neither appear to be earth directed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (17-19 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  With the exception of an
isolated unsettled or active period early on day 1 (17 May) from an
expected solar sector boundary crossing, geomagnetic field
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet throughout the period
(17-19 May).

Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity may 16 2012

Solar Update
Solar activity remains at low levels with only C-Class flares detected. Sunspot 1476 continues to decay and is no longer a threat for strong solar flares. Sunspots 1482 and 1484 both are showing signs of growth, but so far remain stable.

Coronal Mass Ejection: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is seen in the latest Lasco C2 images off the southeast limb. This was caused by a prominence lifting off in the southeast quadrant. It does not look to be Earth directed.

Updated May 15 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Previously active Region 1476
(N10W56) continued to decay over the past 24 hours, while producing
a few nominal C-class flares.  New Region 1485 (S19E65) was numbered
today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next 3 days (16-18 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet over the next 3 days (16-18 May).

Report of Latest Solar Wind Storm Activity May 8 2012

1470-1471 Produces M1.9 Flare and minor CME
Sunspot combo 1470-1471 produced a long duration M1.9 flare on Monday morning. This event peaked at 14:31 UTC and triggered a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) lasting 12 minutes and measuring 240 sfu. Sometimes a long duration event (LDE) will produce a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Stay Tuned for more information.

Update: A minor CME was generated and may be Earth directed. Only minor geomagnetic activity is expected by May 10th.

Updated May 08 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours.  Region 1476 (N11E35) is the most complex region on the
visible disk, has grown to become a Fkc/beta-gamma-delta
configuration, and has an area of approximately 940 Millionths.  It
also produced the largest flare, a M1/1f at 08/1308Z, as well as
several C-class flares.  COR2 imagery from the STEREO-A spacecraft
indicated two weak Earth-directed CMEs that are not expected to have
significant impacts upon arrival.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (09 - 11 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (09 May).  Day two (10
May) is expected to be at quiet to active levels with a chance for
minor storm periods due to the effects of the Coronal Hole High
Speed Stream (CH HSS) and the anticipated arrival of the CME that
departed the solar disk on 07 May.  Day three (11 May) is expected
to return to quiet to unsettled levels as the effects of the CH HSS
begin to wane.

Report of Latest Solar Wind Storm Activity May 6 2012

1476 Seething With Activity
Sunspot 1476 is seething with flares on Sunday afternoon. Multiple mid level C-Class flares have been detected along with an impulsive M1.3 flare at 17:47 UTC. Continue to monitor this region as activity is increasing.

Updated 5/6/2012 @ 13:30 UTC
Solar Update
Solar activity is now at moderate levels. New and active Sunspot 1476 has produced three low level M-Class flares thus far. There will continue to be a chance for another moderate solar flare on Sunday. This region is still not in the best position for Earth directed explosions, however this will change with each passing day.

 Three M-Class Flares / Sunspot 1476
Solar activity increased to moderate levels thanks to newly numbered Sunspot 1476. This new region rotated into view off the northeast limb and has so far produced a pair of M-Class flares. The latest event was an M1.3 at 23:01 UTC Saturday evening. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com as solar activity is again increasing.

UPDATE: Sunspot 1476 did generate a third low level M-Class flare early on Sunday morning.

Latest Solar Storms, Flare and Geophysical Activity news

Updated Apr 19 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C7 x-ray flare at 19/1126Z associated with Types II and IV
radio sweeps and a non-Earth-directed CME. This event may have
originated in old Region 1455 (N05, L=206), now about two days
beyond the west limb. Regions 1460 (N16W01) and 1463 (S26W49) each
produced a low-level C-class flare. Region 1460 showed spot growth
in its intermediate portion. Region 1462 (S24W31) produced a C1
flare at 19/1515Z associated with a CME that may have had an
Earthward component. Further analysis is required to determine if
the CME is likely to be geoeffective. New Region 1464 (N23E01,
Bxo-Beta) was numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 3 (20 - 22 April) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (20 April) with
a chance for brief active levels due to a recurrent solar sector
boundary crossing. Quiet levels are expected during days 2- 3 (21 -
22 April).

Latest solar flare report April 16 2012

Latest Solar Flare Report April 16 2012

The returning region off the northeast limb looks to be providing us with some Solar Fireworks. A massive eruption that registered as an M1.7 event, peaked at 17:45 UTC on Monday afternoon. This will most likely launch a blob of plasma into space. Due to the location of this event, the cloud will probably be directed away from Earth.

The active region off the northeast limb is now rotating into view and initially appeared to be spotless. Currently at 13:45 UTC a Sunspot is just now coming into view. We will get a better look at this region as the day progresses.

Sunspot 1455 which is turning closer to the western limb with every passing hour, did form some new spots on Sunday. This region may produce C-Class flares. Sunspot cluster 1459 in the southeast quadrant covers a large area but has yet to produce a noteworthy flare. There will remain a small risk for an M-Class event.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
An M1 flare was observed from a region around the east limb at
16/1745Z. Region 1459 (S15E56) continued to grow and is now
considered an Fhi-beta type group. A filament erupted at
approximately 16/1300Z near S43E33. The associated CME is not
expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days
(17-19 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (17-19 April).

Solar flare and Geophysical Activity update April 2012

Solar Update
Solar activity remains very low with only B-Class X-Ray activity detected mostly around Sunspot 1450 and region 1451. The leader spot located within 1450 did show some growth over the past 24 hours. There will be a chance for C-Class flares.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours.
Region 1450 (N16W04) produced two B4 flare events, one at 02/2220Z
and the other at 03/1228Z. A weak CME associated with a filament
eruption near N30E11, became visible on LASCO C2 imagery at
02/2348Z. This CME has a northerly trajectory and is not expected
to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class flares for the next three days (04-06
April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (04-05 April)
due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective on 04
April, followed by the anticipated arrival of a weak CME associated
with the filament eruption that occurred at 02/0224Z. Day three (06
April) is expected to return to quiet levels.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

Solar Flare Impact in 2012

The Sun revolves at a 7.25 degree angle just like the Earth. However, due to its imperfect rotation behavior, the sun tends to "wobble", disrupting the internal core and making it highly unstable. The internal disruption eventually works its path to the outer surface and shoots out as a solar flare. Solar flares are little bits of the sun that launches out from the sun, giving off hazardous radiation and tremendous electrical power that go out into space like a bullet.

Solar Cycles

Just like how the earth has 4 seasons throughout the year, the sun goes through "solar cycles" taking 11 years to complete. The previous cycle was at its peak in 2001. Every cycle has a stage when the flares are most powerful, often occurring close to the solar equator, known as the "solar maximum", with the next massive one expected to take place in December 21, 2012 - a date predicted by the Mayan Calendar! Recently, the sun has been going through a long period of quiet solar activity as scientists have concluded that the sun is closing in on the final cycle. The quiet period alarmed NASA scientists and as they issued warnings that we will be seeing a seriously violent sun storm soon.

Impact to Earth

Many solar flares that hit earth were minor, however, small flares can still be threatening. For example, in 1989 a flare struck North America and wiped out many electric grids in the United States and Canada resulting in blackouts. Solar flares are also known to affect human life because a huge flare that's predicted to strike in 2012 would completely take out satellites, telecommunications, computers, and GPS.

Solar flares 2012 predictions are one of many cataclysmic events slated for the year of uncertainty. Always be informed on the latest news and learn ways to prepare and survive the 2012 predictions doomsday.

Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours.
Region 1451 (N17E25) produced a B7 event at 02/0234Z. New Regions
1452 (N18E47) and 1453 (S17E01) were numbered today. A weak
Earth-directed CME, associated with a filament eruption near N26E14,
became visible on LASCO C2 imagery at 02/0224Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days
(03-05 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (03 April). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (04-05
April) due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective
early on 04 April followed the next day by the arrival of the weak
CME associated with this mornings filament eruption.

Solar Flare latest news daily

Updated Mar 29 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels. There were six
C-class flares over the past 24 hours with five of these originating
from old Region 1429 (N19, L=299) which is just beginning to rotate
into view as of forecast issue time. The largest flare was a C7
that occurred at 29/0953Z and originated from old Region 1429. New
Region 1449 (S18W17) was numbered today and is a D-class spot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare. Old Region 1429 will
rotate onto the visible disk, increasing the probabilities for
M-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (30 March - 1 April)

Latest Report of Solar Flare

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels. Region 1444
(N21W17) produced a C5/1f flare at 27/0308Z. Region 1442 (N12W13)
produced a C2 flare at 26/2338Z and a C1/Sf flare at 27/0430Z. SOHO
LASCO observed a full asymmetric halo CME at 26/2312Z which was
associated with Type II & Type IV radio sweeps. This CME was
determined to be a backsided event and should not be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare. Old Region 1429 (N19,
L=299) is expected to return to the solar disk midday on 29 March,
which should increase M-class flare probabilities. New Region 1447
(S25W55) was numbered today and is a small C-type spot group.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE data
indicate a solar sector boundary crossing during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 28 March to 29
March, due to a favorably positioned negative polarity coronal hole.
Quiet levels are expected on the third day (30 March).

Latest Report of Solar Flare and Geophysical Activity

Updated Mar 26 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels.  Region 1442
(N12W01) produced a C1/Sf flare at 26/0642Z.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class flare.  Old Region 1429 (N19, L=295) is
expected to return late on day 2 (28 March), further increasing the
possibility of an M-class event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on 27 March, increasing to unsettled to
active conditions on 28 and 29 March due to a solar sector boundary
followed by a negative polarity coronal hole.

Solar Update
Solar activity has been fairly quiet with only low level C-Class flare detected. New Sunspot growth appears to be taking place on Monday in the vicinity of region 1442. This is located just to the south of AR1444. A couple of small plasma clouds are seen in the latest STEREO Behind COR2 images and may be the result of prominences lifting off of the Sun. None appear to be Earth directed at this time.

Old faithful Sunspot 1429, just produced a strong solar flare on the farside of the Sun. The time of the flare was around 22:45 UTC. This region is about 2 days away from returning onto the visible solar disk off the eastern limb. The image below shows the bright flash captured by STEREO Behind and a large, fast moving Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced. Stay Tuned as we may be in for more activity in the weeks ahead.

Report of Solar flare Activity march 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Newly numbered Region
1445 (S24E76) rotated onto the solar disk and produced an M1 flare
at 23/1940Z as well as a C6 flare at 23/1639Z.  Region 1444 (N21E37)
was numbered overnight, but is small and stable.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate, mainly due to additional activity from Region 1445.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was initially unsettled, but decreased to quiet
levels after 23/0300Z.  The elevated activity was caused by a solar
sector boundary crossing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (24-26 March).

Solar and Geophysical Activity Report of 07Mar 2012

An X-1.1 class solar flare erupted from the Sun on Sunday, March 4 at 11:13 PM EST (0413 UTC March 5), sending an explosion of plasma and charged particles -- a coronal mass ejection (CME) -- hurtling through space. Forecasters at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) are saying that the CME should miss Earth, but will hit Mercury and Venus.
Even if this CME misses, high-latitude sky watchers should still be alert for auroras in the nights ahead. An M3-class eruption from the same sunspot just a day before produced another, wider CME that might intersect Earth. The cloud is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on March 6 around 0430 UTC. Sunday night’s solar flare is only the second X-class eruption so far this year. X-class flares are the most powerful type of solar storm; M-class eruptions are considered midrange and C-class flares are the weakest.
According to Spaceweather.com, SWPC forecasters are estimating a 75 percent chance of M-class solar flares and a 30 percent chance of an X-flare from big sunspot 1429, which emerged on the Sun on March 2 and is estimated to be at least four to five times larger than Earth. The active region is slowly turning to face Earth, so if any such eruptions do occur, they are increasingly likely to be geoeffective. Forecasters say there is a 30-40 percent chance of polar geomagnetic storms through the rest of the week. The 1429 sunspot region continues to be quite active since it emerged on March 2, and scientists are predicting it will spew more flares as the week goes on.
When a CME hits the Earth’s atmosphere -- approximately 72 hours after exploding on the Sun -- the low bands will be depressed and signals will be weaker the lower the frequency. The absorption rate will be most severe on 160 meters, less on 80 and somewhat better on 40 meters. The maximum usable frequency (MUF) -- the highest frequency by which a radio wave can propagate between given terminals by ionospheric propagation alone, independent of power -- will be lower and auroral propagation on the VHF bands is quite possible.
When aurora occur, the electrons hit the ionosphere at the North and South geomagnetic poles, creating ionization. Waves that would normally travel off into space are bouncing off the aurora and being redirected back toward Earth. This can create opportunities for long-distance propagation via VHF and UHF.
VHF operators greet CMEs as a welcome opportunity for unusual, enhanced propagation. “CMEs can trigger the Aurora Borealis,” explained ARRL Contest Branch Manager and VHF aficionado Sean Kutzko, KX9X. “If the aurora is intense enough, you can use it as a ‘wall’ to bounce signals off of on 6 and 2 meters -- and sometimes higher. If you have a beam on the VHF bands, point it north (or south, if you’re in the Southern Hemisphere) and listen for strange-sounding signals.”
Kutzko noted that aurora can cause audio signals to become very distorted: “On 6 meters, SSB signals become quite difficult to understand, and on 2 meters, it renders sideband practically unusable. CW is the preferred mode of communication during an aurora opening. Even so, the pure tone of a CW signal becomes distorted as well, reducing the pure ‘beep’ tone to a whisper-like ‘pffft.’”
In 2013, solar activity levels are expected to peak with the next solar maximum within the 11-year solar activity cycle. “We now know how powerful space weather can be and how events that begin on the surface of the Sun can end up wreaking havoc here on Earth,” said SWPC Director Tom Bogdan. “This is why NOAA has a Space Weather Prediction Center -- to forecast when space weather is coming our way, so we can avoid or mitigate damages. We’re coming up to the next solar maximum, so we expect to see more of these storms coming from the Sun over the next three to five years.”