On Thursday morning, Sunspot 1504 produced yet another long duration M-Class flare. The event peaked at M1.9 and generated an Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection which was visible in the STEREO Ahead COR2 images. A 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) was recorded measuring 1400sfu and lasted for 103 minutes. The plamsa cloud is expected to impact Earth later in the day on Saturday June 16. As per the latest WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction, the time of impact is expected around 18:00 UTC. Geomagnetic Storming will be possible at very high latitudes.
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1504 (S16E01)
produced a long duration M1/1n flare with maximum at 14/1435Z. This
event was associated with a 1400 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio
sweep. This region showed growth and maintained its
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. An associated CME was
observed in STEREO imagery at 14/1424Z with an estimated
plane-of-sky velocity between 900 and 1100 km/s.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 15-16 June. An increase to unsettled to
active levels is expected early on day 3 (17 June) due to combined
effects from both the 13 June and 14 June CMEs.
