Moderate to High Solar Activity
Sprawling Sunspot Cluster 1515 is now directly facing the Earth. This region is responsible for generating at least 5 M-Class solar flares within the past few days, including M5.6 and M3.8 events on Monday. So far on Tuesday, numerous C-Class flares have been detected including a C9.0 flare at 17:02 UTC. This region has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification and may produce a strong solar flare within the next 24 to 48 hours. So far the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) output has been directed mostly away from Earth.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1515 (S16W10)
remained the predominant flare producer with an M2/Sf flare at
02/2356Z and frequent C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 03/0342Z
associated with a 260 sfu Tenflare. This region, classified as an
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta, remained large and magnetically complex with
delta magnetic configurations within its interior and trailer spots.
Several coronal mass ejections (CME) were associated with flare
activity in Region 1515, but the bulk of the ejecta was directed
southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1513 (N16W22) retained
its beta-gamma magnetic configuration and displayed no significant
changes during the period. It produced isolated C-class flares
including a C8/Sf at 03/1441Z associated with a Type II radio sweep
(estimated shock velocity 1064 km/s). No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate through the period (04 - 06 July) with more M-class flares
expected from Region 1515.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with
active to minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. ACE solar
wind data indicated Earth remained within a negative-polarity
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speeds were in the 504
to 715 km/s range with a gradual decreasing trend. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was variable in the +4/-4 nT
range. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (04 -
06 July) with a chance for active levels due to persistent CH HSS
effects. Recent CME activity from Region 1515 is not expected to
significantly disturb the geomagnetic field.
Solar activity was high on Monday with multiple M-Class flares being detected around large Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere. The solar X-Ray background levels are currently hovering near the C1 level. There will remain the chance for a strong solar flare.