X4.9 Solar Flare 02/24/2014 - possibility of a coronal mass ejection CME

The X4.9 Solar Flare was associated with a Type II radio emission with a velocity of nearly 2000 km/s. This indicates the possibility of a coronal mass ejection. A 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 3700 sfu and lasting 85 minutes was also recorded. Despite newly renumbered region 1990 being close to the limb, it is still possible to be flanked by a CME from this location if it happens to be large enough. More updates to follow if a CME is associated. Attached video by SDO.


ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1972 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.


SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Feb 25 0042 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Feb 25 0045 UTC
End Time: 2014 Feb 25 0107 UTC
Duration: 85 minutes
Peak Flux: 3700 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 171 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SOLAR FLARE STORM aug 16 2013

Updated 08/16/2013 @ 20:55
Geomagnetic Storm Watch
A solar wind stream flowing past Earth remains above 700 km/s. A brief period of minor geomagnetic storming (Kp=5) was observed early this morning at high latitudes. Additional flareups of minor storming will be possible today, particularly if the Bz/IMF component decides to tip south for an extended period of time. Stay tuned for the latest information.
UPDATE: A solar wind stream flowing from a geoeffective coronal hole remains elevated near 700 km/s heading into Friday evening and the Bz/IMF component remains fairly stable. Only minor geomagnetic disturbances (Kp=4) have been detected today so far. There will remain a chance for isolated storm conditions (Kp=5) at high latitudes tonight. Be on the lookout for visible aurora should geomagnetic conditions allow.

Solar activity is currently low with only minor B-Class activity detected within the past 12 hours and an impulsive C1.3 flare moments ago at 12:47 UTC around Sunspot 1818. Both regions 1817 and 1818 have a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. There will remain a chance for C-Class flares and perhaps an isolated M-Class event. A small eruption registering as a C2.9 solar flare Thursday evening to the west of 1817 generated a faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) now visible in the updated Lasco C2 imagery. It does not appears to be Earth directed.
UPDATE: 1817 again appears to be weakening, but 1818 retains a delta configuration and is currently producing impulsive C-Class solar flares.
A small eruption registering as a C2.9 solar flare Thursday evening to the west of 1817 generated a faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) now visible in the updated Lasco C2 imagery. It does not appears to be Earth directed.

Solar Active Regions and Activity

Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2012


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0233Z from newly numbered Region 1614(N15E72). There were two other
newly numbered regions on the disk as well: 1613 (S21E57) and 1615
(N09E61). A non-earth directed CME was observed off of the southwest
limb on LASCO C2 imagery at 10/2224Z and was associated with the
eruption of a large prominence. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
with a chance for moderate levels on days one, two, and three (12 Nov,
13 Nov, 14 Nov).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 352 km/s at
11/2010Z. Total IMF reached 5.4 nT at 11/1104Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.2 nT at 11/1150Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be initially quiet but is expected to become mostly active with a
chance for minor storm levels beginning about mid-day on day 1 (12 Nov)
and partway into day 2 (13 Nov) due to the arrival of the CMEs from
09/1524Z and 10/0539Z. Activity is expected to decrease to generally
unsettled levels on day 3 (14 Nov).

solar flare activity in 2012 oct 22

Sunspot 1598 is back at it again, this time producing a moderate M5.0 Solar Flare peaking at 18:51 UTC. The flare was responsible for a brief R2 Level Radio Blackout. So far a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is not visible

Updated  Oct 22 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 1598 (S10E60)
produced an M5/1f event at 22/1851Z.  Region 1598 is the most
threatening region on the disk and appears to be a Beta magnetic
class.  However, the proximity of Region 1598 to the East limb has
made the magnetic classification uncertain.  Region 1596 (N07E20) is
also moderately sized and has some magnetic complexity, but only
managed to produce a small C-class event.  The other regions on the
disk either remained stable or decayed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with occasional M-class flares, and a slight chance
for an isolated X-class flare for the next three days (23 - 25 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours.  Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, remained steady throughout
the day at approximately 375 km/s.  The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged from +/-2 nT. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23 - 25 Oct).

III.  Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     05/05/10
PCAF       green

latest Solar flare storm and Geophysical Activity july 04 2012

M4.7 + M4.6 Flares
The 4th of July fireworks continue. A moderate solar flare reaching M4.6 peaked at 22:09 UTC Wednesday evening. The source was active Sunspot 1515. Moderate to Strong solar flares are now taking place frequently and there is now an increased chance for a major X-Class solar flare within the next 24-48 hours. Below is an updated list of today's solar flare events.

UPDATE: An impulsive solar flare reaching M4.7 was just detected at 03:36 UTC Thursday morning.

M4.7 @ 03:36 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M2.2 @ 02:42 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M2.4 @ 01:10 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M4.6 @ 22:09 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M1.8 @ 16:39 UTC - (Sunspot 1513) "Earth directed CME possible"
M2.3 @ 12:24 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M5.3 @ 09:55 UTC - (Sunspot 1515) "Non Earth directed CME generated"

Updated 7/4/2012 @ 23:10 UTC
Sunspot 1513 Erupts
Yet another M-Class flare, however this time it was centered around Sunspot 1513 in the northern hemisphere. The latest event measured M1.8 @ 16:39 UTC. A nice eruption is captured by SDO below.

SOLAR FLARE STORM Activity May 19 2012

Updated 5/19/2012
Solar Update
Solar activity has been low with only low level C-Class activity detected around mostly departing region 1476 off the western limb. All other sunspot regions are currently stable. New sunspot 1486 was numbered on Friday.

Updated May 18 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest flare
was a C3 at 18/0823Z from old Region 1476 (N10, L=180), which
rotated off the disk.  A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA
304 imagery beginning at 18/0510Z near Region 1482 (N15W17).  An
associated CME was observed in STEREO A COR 2 imagery beginning at
18/0709Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of approximately 482
km/s.  The majority of the ejecta appeared to be slightly north of
the ecliptic plane, however a glancing blow is likely.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare all three days
(19 - 21 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 100 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at
17/0200Z, reached a maximum of 20.4 pfu at 17/0230Z and ended at
17/1725Z.  The greater than 10 MeV proton event is currently
hovering close to the 10 pfu threshold (S1).

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods on day 1 (19 May) due to a possible shock arrival from the
17 May CME.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (20
May).  Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (21 May). 
There is a slight chance for shock enhancement of the greater than
10 MeV protons above 10 pfu on day 1.

SOLAR FLARE STORM Activity May 13 2012

Updated 5/13/2012 @ 12:30 UTC
Solar Update
Solar activity is currently low with only C-Class flares detected within the past 24 hours. The largest of these flares was a C7.0 at 08:14 UTC Sunday morning. Sunspot 1476 continues to decay and the threat for strong solar flares will decline because of this. All other regions are currently stable.

 The Sun Captured Locally
Below is a great image of the Sun and AR1476 taken by a local Sun photographer named Raymond Lalonde. The photo was taken yesterday from here in Eastern Ontario, Canada.

Updated May 13 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1476 (N09W33) continues to be the most dominant region
on the disk with an area of 840 millionths and is magnetically
classified as beta-gamma-delta. However, Region 1476 is currently in
a decay phase and only producing C-class x-ray events. Region 1479
(N15E40) was split into two sunspot groups after magnetogram
analysis, with the leader group retaining  the Region 1479 number,
and the trailer group being numbered Region 1482 (N14E51). Three new
regions were also numbered today, Region 1481 (S10E61), Region 1483
(S27E51) and Region 1484 (N10E75).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(14 - 16 May) as Region 1476 continues to rotate towards the west
limb of the solar disk.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated periods at minor storm levels observed at high latitudes.
Measurements, by the ACE spacecraft, indicate the waning effects of
the latest coronal hole high speed stream, as solar wind speeds
decreased from 600 km/s to around 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods on day one (14 May), as a CME, observed leaving the solar
disk on 12 May, is forecasted to become geoeffective. Most of the
mass of this CME event is expected to miss Earth, thus quiet to
unsettled levels with a chance of active levels, are also expected
on day two (15 May). As effects of the CME wane, a return to quiet
to unsettled levels is expected on day three (16 May).

SOLAR FLARE STORM Activity May 12 2012

Updated 5/12/2012 @ 12:00 UTC
Solar Update
Solar activity decreased somewhat with only C-Class flares detected around Sunspot 1476 within the past 24 hours. The large leader spot remains magnetically complex and may produce another moderate to strong M-Class event. Elsewhere, New region 1479 located in the northeast quadrant may produce C-Class flares.

SOLAR FLARE STORM  May 12 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours with several C-class x-ray flares.  Region 1476 (N10W06) was
the source for nearly all of the reported flares, with the largest
being a C6 that occurred at 11/1738Z.  This region has remained
mostly consistent as an Fkc/beta-gamma-delta spot group, but has
shown some signs of decay, mainly in the trailer spots.  New Regions
1479 (N15E65) and 1480 (S16W10) were numbered over the last 24
hours, are Hsx/Axx classifications respectively, and have yet to
show much activity.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class x-ray flares for
the next three days (12 - 14 May) as Region 1476 keeps its
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta configuration.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours.  Solar wind measurements, as observed by the ACE
spacecraft, showed a fairly steady drop in speeds from approximately
650 km/s down to approximately 550 km/s.  The effects of the coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) should begin to wane over the next
24-48hrs.  The total IMF remains fairly stable at approximately 5
nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two
(12-13 May), then return to quiet levels on day three (14 May).

III.  Event Probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       Green

SOLAR FLARE STORM WARNING May 11 2012

SOLAR  FlARE STORM WARNING May 11 2012

SOLAR ACTIVITY: Huge sunspot AR1476 is crackling with M-class solar flares and appears to be on the verge of producing something even stronger. The sunspot's 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field harbors energy for X-class flares, the most powerful kind. Earth is entering the line of fire as the sunspot rotates across the face of the sun.

On May 10th around 0418 UT, sunspot 1476 unleashed an impulsive M5-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

The almost-X class explosion did not hurl a significant CME toward Earth. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of more M-class flares and a 20% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.