Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/2032Z from a region around the east limb. There are currently 10
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May,
15 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 435 km/s at
11/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 456 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 May), quiet levels on
day two (14 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 May).
III. Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
Updated 05/13/2013 @ 02:10 UTC
X-Class Solar Flare
A major X-Class Solar Flare peaking at X1.7 was observed around an active region hiding off the east limb at 02:15 UTC. This event was also responsible for a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout on the sunlit side of Earth. This region is currently seething with activity and should begin to rotate into view within the next 24 hours. Because of the sunspot location, any associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) should be directed away from Earth. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest and most up to date Space Weather information.
M1.9 Flare
A moderate solar flare measuring M1.9 was detected around a new active region off the east limb at 20:32 UTC Sunday evening. This probable sunspot will rotate into view over the next few days. Image by SDO.
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0208 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 13 0219 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 13 0222 UTC
Duration: 14 minutes
Peak Flux: 320 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
