latest solar flare activity august 23 2013

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and latest solar flare activity august 23 2013from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
22/2207Z from Region 1828 (N14E26). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

 IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (24 Aug) and expected to
be low on days two and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
593 km/s at 22/2215Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/2205Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1857 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Aug), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (25 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (26 Aug). 

Solar activity was low.  Region 1820 (S12W73, Cao/beta) produced a C1 at
23/1557 UTC, which was the largest event of the period.  Region 1830
(S05W64, Dao/beta) showed minor growth while the other regions on the
disk were either stable or decaying.  A narrow coronal mass ejection
(CME) from Region 1820 was observed on LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at
23/0048 UTC, but was not Earth-directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
flares on day one (24 Aug).  Solar activity is expected to be low for
days two and three (25 - 26 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to high levels, reaching a maximum value of 1,860 pfu at 23/1710
UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to high levels for the next three days (24 - 26 Aug). 
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels for the next three days (24 - 26 Aug).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at ACE, were indicative of waning
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence.  Solar wind speed
steadily decreased from initial values near 560 km/s to end-of-period
values near 475 km/s.  The total field strength ranged from 6 nT to 2 nT
while the Bz component ranged from +4 nT to -5 nT.  The phi angle
remained in a predominately positive (away) sector throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to increase on day one (24 Aug) and remain
enhanced for days two and three (25 - 26 Aug) with arrival of the 21 Aug
CME and onset of a CH HSS late on day three.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
With arrival of the 21 Aug CME, the geomagnetic field is expected to be
at unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on day one (24 Aug),
decreasing to quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on day two
(25 Aug).  Predominately quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on
day three (26 Aug) with waning CME effects and the onset of a CH HSS.

Solar flare Activity Solar Update CME Update 12 May 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/2032Z from a region around the east limb. There are currently 10
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May,
15 May).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 435 km/s at
11/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 456 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 May), quiet levels on
day two (14 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 May).


III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

Updated 05/13/2013 @ 02:10 UTC
X-Class Solar Flare
A major X-Class Solar Flare peaking at X1.7 was observed around an active region hiding off the east limb at 02:15 UTC. This event was also responsible for a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout on the sunlit side of Earth. This region is currently seething with activity and should begin to rotate into view within the next 24 hours. Because of the sunspot location, any associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) should be directed away from Earth. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest and most up to date Space Weather information.
  M1.9 Flare
A moderate solar flare measuring M1.9 was detected around a new active region off the east limb at 20:32 UTC Sunday evening. This probable sunspot will rotate into view over the next few days. Image by SDO.
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0208 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 13 0219 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 13 0222 UTC
Duration: 14 minutes
Peak Flux: 320 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Solar flare Activity Solar Update CME Update Apr 13 2013

j

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2013 Apr 13 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/0334Z from Region 1718 (N21W58). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (14 Apr, 15 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (16 Apr).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 501 km/s at
12/2336Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2240Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 13/0036Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 12/2205Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 268 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (14 Apr) and quiet
levels on days two and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Apr) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (15 Apr).

Solar flare Activity Solar Update CME Update Apr 11 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
11/0716Z from Region 1719 (N10W00). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at
11/1243Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/0712Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0916Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu at 11/1645Z.
Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 2 pfu at 11/1400Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 385 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Apr), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (13 Apr) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (14
Apr). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (12 Apr), have
a chance of crossing threshold on day two (13 Apr) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day three (14 Apr).


III.  Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     99/30/10
PCAF       red

CME Update: A bright full-halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is visible within the new Lasco imagery. It appears that a bulk of the plasma is directed towards the east, however there also appears to be a fair sized Earth directed

A moderately strong solar flare was observed around Sunspot 1719 at 07:16 UTC. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was generated and looks to be directed mostly to the east. There is however an Earth directed component that could deliver at least a glancing blow or more to our geomagnetic field within 48 hours. Energetic Proton Levels streaming past Earth are on the rise following the flare event. A minor to moderate S2 Level Radiation Storm is currently in progress.

A couple more solar flares of the smaller variety were observed following the initial M6.5 event. A minor flare measuring C4.2 was detected around 1721 in the southeast quadrant at 10:13 UTC. Departed Sunspot 1713 off the west limb produced a flare measuring C6.2 at 10:46 UTC. SolarSoft has the flare at C6.3.

latest Solar flare storm and Geophysical Activity july 04 2012

M4.7 + M4.6 Flares
The 4th of July fireworks continue. A moderate solar flare reaching M4.6 peaked at 22:09 UTC Wednesday evening. The source was active Sunspot 1515. Moderate to Strong solar flares are now taking place frequently and there is now an increased chance for a major X-Class solar flare within the next 24-48 hours. Below is an updated list of today's solar flare events.

UPDATE: An impulsive solar flare reaching M4.7 was just detected at 03:36 UTC Thursday morning.

M4.7 @ 03:36 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M2.2 @ 02:42 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M2.4 @ 01:10 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M4.6 @ 22:09 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M1.8 @ 16:39 UTC - (Sunspot 1513) "Earth directed CME possible"
M2.3 @ 12:24 UTC - (Sunspot 1515)
M5.3 @ 09:55 UTC - (Sunspot 1515) "Non Earth directed CME generated"

Updated 7/4/2012 @ 23:10 UTC
Sunspot 1513 Erupts
Yet another M-Class flare, however this time it was centered around Sunspot 1513 in the northern hemisphere. The latest event measured M1.8 @ 16:39 UTC. A nice eruption is captured by SDO below.

latest Solar flare and Geophysical Activity june13 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1506 (N11E38), 1504
(S17E28), and 1507 (S27E02) were the most active regions on the
disk.  Each region was responsible for multiple C-flares during the
period.  The largest of these came from Region 1506 which produced a
C2 flare at 12/0315Z.  All three of these regions have shown signs
of growth.  There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the
period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  There is a chance for an isolated M-class event from
Region 1504.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.  Minor
storm levels were reached from 11/2100Z to 12/0300Z.  This was
followed by an active period from 12/0300Z to 12/0600Z.  Solar wind
observations indicated a sustained interval of negative Bz from
11/1500Z to 12/0200Z with peak values around -10nT.  In addition,
the data indicated a solar sector boundary crossing starting late on
the 11th.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (June 13).  Quiet levels
are expected for 14-15 June.

Report of latest solar flare activity April 20 2012

Despite the amount of large Sunspots on the Earth facing side of the Sun, solar activity has been fairly low over the past 24 hours. None of the current visible sunspots are magnetically complex (at this time). There will remain the chance for an isolated M-Class event. The sunspot totals are also helping to increase the daily Solar Flux readings. The solar flux ended near 140 on Thursday.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Apr 19 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C7 x-ray flare at 19/1126Z associated with Types II and IV
radio sweeps and a non-Earth-directed CME. This event may have
originated in old Region 1455 (N05, L=206), now about two days
beyond the west limb. Regions 1460 (N16W01) and 1463 (S26W49) each
produced a low-level C-class flare. Region 1460 showed spot growth
in its intermediate portion. Region 1462 (S24W31) produced a C1
flare at 19/1515Z associated with a CME that may have had an
Earthward component. Further analysis is required to determine if
the CME is likely to be geoeffective. New Region 1464 (N23E01,
Bxo-Beta) was numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 3 (20 - 22 April) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (20 April) with
a chance for brief active levels due to a recurrent solar sector
boundary crossing. Quiet levels are expected during days 2- 3 (21 -
22 April).

Latest solar flare report April 17 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been low for the past 24 hours. A
long duration C1 flare was observed from new Region 1461 (N13E66) at
17/0809Z. An associated CME became visible in LASCO C2 imagery at
17/0800Z but does not appear to be Earth-directed. A filament
eruption occurred at approximately 17/1330Z near N24W40. The
associated CME was first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 17/1424Z but
is not expected to be geoeffective. New Region 1460 (N16E26) was
also numbered overnight and is considered a Dso-beta type spot
group. Region 1459 (S15E40) has shown a significant decrease in
areal coverage and is now a Dao-beta type spot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the next three days
(18-20 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (18-19 April). Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected with a chance for isolated
active periods on day three (20 April) due to a recurrent Solar
Sector Boundary Crossing (SSBC).

Solar and Geophysical Activity Report of 07Mar 2012

An X-1.1 class solar flare erupted from the Sun on Sunday, March 4 at 11:13 PM EST (0413 UTC March 5), sending an explosion of plasma and charged particles -- a coronal mass ejection (CME) -- hurtling through space. Forecasters at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) are saying that the CME should miss Earth, but will hit Mercury and Venus.
Even if this CME misses, high-latitude sky watchers should still be alert for auroras in the nights ahead. An M3-class eruption from the same sunspot just a day before produced another, wider CME that might intersect Earth. The cloud is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on March 6 around 0430 UTC. Sunday night’s solar flare is only the second X-class eruption so far this year. X-class flares are the most powerful type of solar storm; M-class eruptions are considered midrange and C-class flares are the weakest.
According to Spaceweather.com, SWPC forecasters are estimating a 75 percent chance of M-class solar flares and a 30 percent chance of an X-flare from big sunspot 1429, which emerged on the Sun on March 2 and is estimated to be at least four to five times larger than Earth. The active region is slowly turning to face Earth, so if any such eruptions do occur, they are increasingly likely to be geoeffective. Forecasters say there is a 30-40 percent chance of polar geomagnetic storms through the rest of the week. The 1429 sunspot region continues to be quite active since it emerged on March 2, and scientists are predicting it will spew more flares as the week goes on.
When a CME hits the Earth’s atmosphere -- approximately 72 hours after exploding on the Sun -- the low bands will be depressed and signals will be weaker the lower the frequency. The absorption rate will be most severe on 160 meters, less on 80 and somewhat better on 40 meters. The maximum usable frequency (MUF) -- the highest frequency by which a radio wave can propagate between given terminals by ionospheric propagation alone, independent of power -- will be lower and auroral propagation on the VHF bands is quite possible.
When aurora occur, the electrons hit the ionosphere at the North and South geomagnetic poles, creating ionization. Waves that would normally travel off into space are bouncing off the aurora and being redirected back toward Earth. This can create opportunities for long-distance propagation via VHF and UHF.
VHF operators greet CMEs as a welcome opportunity for unusual, enhanced propagation. “CMEs can trigger the Aurora Borealis,” explained ARRL Contest Branch Manager and VHF aficionado Sean Kutzko, KX9X. “If the aurora is intense enough, you can use it as a ‘wall’ to bounce signals off of on 6 and 2 meters -- and sometimes higher. If you have a beam on the VHF bands, point it north (or south, if you’re in the Southern Hemisphere) and listen for strange-sounding signals.”
Kutzko noted that aurora can cause audio signals to become very distorted: “On 6 meters, SSB signals become quite difficult to understand, and on 2 meters, it renders sideband practically unusable. CW is the preferred mode of communication during an aurora opening. Even so, the pure tone of a CW signal becomes distorted as well, reducing the pure ‘beep’ tone to a whisper-like ‘pffft.’”
In 2013, solar activity levels are expected to peak with the next solar maximum within the 11-year solar activity cycle. “We now know how powerful space weather can be and how events that begin on the surface of the Sun can end up wreaking havoc here on Earth,” said SWPC Director Tom Bogdan. “This is why NOAA has a Space Weather Prediction Center -- to forecast when space weather is coming our way, so we can avoid or mitigate damages. We’re coming up to the next solar maximum, so we expect to see more of these storms coming from the Sun over the next three to five years.”