Updated 5/19/2012
Solar Update
Solar activity has been low with only low level C-Class activity detected around mostly departing region 1476 off the western limb. All other sunspot regions are currently stable. New sunspot 1486 was numbered on Friday.
Solar Update
Solar activity has been low with only low level C-Class activity detected around mostly departing region 1476 off the western limb. All other sunspot regions are currently stable. New sunspot 1486 was numbered on Friday.
Updated May 18 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare
was a C3 at 18/0823Z from old Region 1476 (N10, L=180), which
rotated off the disk. A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA
304 imagery beginning at 18/0510Z near Region 1482 (N15W17). An
associated CME was observed in STEREO A COR 2 imagery beginning at
18/0709Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of approximately 482
km/s. The majority of the ejecta appeared to be slightly north of
the ecliptic plane, however a glancing blow is likely.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare all three days
(19 - 21 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 100 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at
17/0200Z, reached a maximum of 20.4 pfu at 17/0230Z and ended at
17/1725Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is currently
hovering close to the 10 pfu threshold (S1).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods on day 1 (19 May) due to a possible shock arrival from the
17 May CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (20
May). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (21 May).
There is a slight chance for shock enhancement of the greater than
10 MeV protons above 10 pfu on day 1.