Current Solar activity is at high levels oct 23 2012

Solar Update / Sunspot 1598

 
Solar activity is currently at high levels with one X-Class Flare, one M-Class Flare and several C-Class flares detected within the past 24 hours. Almost all of the activity has been centered around active Sunspot 1598 located in the southeast quadrant. There will remain a chance for moderate solar flares on Tuesday with a possibility of a major solar flare within the next 24-48 hours. 

On This Day in 2003

 
On this day back in 2003, A large Sunspot numbered 486 rotated into view off the eastern limb. It was responsible for numerous major solar flares which directly lead to what many remember as the 2003 Halloween Solar Storms. Extreme Geomagnetic activity resulted and this generated one of the best visible Aurora displays of all time. Currently Sunspot 1598 is following the same path, however it not yet anywhere near the complexity of old Sunspot 486.

X1.8 Solar Flare An impulsive, yet strong Solar Flare, just took place around Sunspot 1598. The latest event measured X1.8 and peaked at 03:17 UTC Tuesday morning. Impulsive solar flares do not usually produce large Coronal Mass Ejections, however I will provide updates as new information comes in. The image and movie below both captures the flare in progress.

Current Solar Flare Activity 2012

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY CONTINUES: For the third day in a row, geomagnetic storms are circling the poles. In North America, auroras have spilled across the Canadian border descending as far south as Utah, Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska. The best place to see the show, according to pilot Matt Melnyk, is from the window of an airplane.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A few C-class events were
observed during the period, most from a region around the southeast
limb that has not yet rotated onto the disk.  Three new regions were
numbered today with Region 1589 (N13E75) as the largest and most
active.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare over the next three days
(10-12 October).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field began the day at active levels before the onset
of two major storm periods (09/00-06Z). This peak activity was then
followed by a minor storm period before mostly quiet conditions
prevailed for the remainder of the period. The increased activity
was the result of residual effects from the CME on 05 October. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on day one (10 October), due to
high speed stream effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
forecast on day two (11 October) and mostly quiet levels are
expected on day three (12 October).

The storms were instigated by a CME strike on Oct. 8th and they are about to be re-energized by a solar wind stream due to hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 10th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of strong geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours, so high-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras

Current solar flare storm activity oct 2012

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Oct 04 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-flares during the forecast period (05-07
October).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet during the forecast period (05-07
October).

Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity may 16 2012

Solar Update
Solar activity remains at low levels with only C-Class flares detected. Sunspot 1476 continues to decay and is no longer a threat for strong solar flares. Sunspots 1482 and 1484 both are showing signs of growth, but so far remain stable.

Coronal Mass Ejection: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is seen in the latest Lasco C2 images off the southeast limb. This was caused by a prominence lifting off in the southeast quadrant. It does not look to be Earth directed.

Updated May 15 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Previously active Region 1476
(N10W56) continued to decay over the past 24 hours, while producing
a few nominal C-class flares.  New Region 1485 (S19E65) was numbered
today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next 3 days (16-18 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet over the next 3 days (16-18 May).

latest news of Solar Flare Activity March 7 2012

Updated Mar 07 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 1429 (N17E15) produced
an X5/3B long-duration flare with maximum at 07/0024Z. The event was
associated with type II and type IV radio sweeps and a full halo,
though slightly asymmetric coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME had
an estimated plane of sky speed of about 2200 km/s. During the decay
of the X5 x-ray event, Region 1430 (N21W00) produced an X1/Sf at
0114Z. Region 1429 dominates the disk with an area of about 1300
millionths. Observations show slight separation of the central spots
but the region continues to be large and magnetically complex;
multiple deltas are clearly evident as well as a dominant east-west
polarity inversion line. Region 1430 showed steady growth during the
past 24 hours. Region 1428 (S17W05) also showed growth during the
period but was relatively quiet and stable.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class level activity is expected to continue and
there continues to be a good chance for an additional major flare
and/or proton producing event from Region 1429. In addition, the
growth trend in 1430 suggests that it may also contribute to the
M-flare activity during the next three days.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. Activity levels were initially quiet to unsettled
until an interplanetary shock arrived. The shock was seen at ACE at
07/0334Z and was followed by a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at
Earth at 07/0421Z. Although solar wind speeds did not increase
greatly, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and density did
increase markedly and the Bz component had numerous intervals of
fairly strong southward orientation (with the strongest negative
intervals at about -15 to -20 nT). Geomagnetic activity increased to
minor to major storm levels following the SSC with some periods of
severe storm levels at high latitudes. The disturbance most likely
originated from the X1/halo CME that occurred on 05 March. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event began at 07/0500Z and has reached a peak so
far of 1630 PFU at 1540Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton event also
occurred, beginning at 07/0405Z and reaching an apparent maximum of
69 PFU at 07/1525Z. Both of these events continue in progress and
are clearly associated with todays X5/Full halo CME event.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active initially on day 1 (08 March) but is expected
to increase to major storm levels with a likelihood for isolated
severe storm levels after the arrival of the CME from todays
X5/full halo event. The arrival time is estimated to be sometime
between 0600-1000Z. Minor to major storm levels are expected to
continue partway (6-12 hours) into the second day (09 March), but a
decline to predominantly active levels is expected for the remainder
of the day. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the
third day (10 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue through the first day and is also likely to
continue partway through the second day. The greater than 100 Mev
proton event is expected to slowly decline over the next 24 hours.

III.  Event Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    40/40/40
Proton     99/80/50
PCAF       red

Geomagnetic Storm and Solar Wind Activity Report

Incoming! The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction is calling for an almost direct CME impact during the middle of tomorrow (March 8). The solar wind is expected to increase to over 800 km/s and Strong Geomagnetic Storming will be possible. This plasma cloud is the result of the X5.4 and X1.3 Solar Flare event very early this morning.
CME Impact / G2 Geomagnetic Storm
A moderate G2 Geomagnetic Storm (Kp=6) was sparked by an incoming Coronal Mass Ejection impact from an explosion earlier in the week. The IMF pointed -20nT South for long periods and this likely helped intensify the storm. The Kp did drop somewhat, however has again picked back up to the G2 level. Be on the lookout for Aurora at high latitudes.
The high energy proton levels continue to rise following the strong solar flare from very early this morning. A strong S3 Level Radiation Storm is now in progress. The increase in proton levels are a direct result of the major solar flare activity from early Wednesday morning around Sunspot 1429.
Updated 3/7/2012 @ 03:05 UTC
Major X5.4 Solar Flare + X1.3 Flare
The second strongest solar flare of Cycle 24 in terms of X-Ray Flux, just peaked around Active Sunspot 1429. This major event measured X5.4 at 00:24 UTC and triggered a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout. This was followed shortly thereafter by an X1.3 event at 01:14 UTC. A coronal mass ejection will likely result and due to the sunspots more geoeffective position, there will be a chance for some sort of impact.